johnthebear

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    • Sun Mar 9th 13:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials and Retail: Not as Dire as They Seem
      Valuking, so where am I wrong? I am not a slave to the media and the administration that wants to put lipstick on a pig. It is the truth that hurts so bad.

      Sorry about that, but facts speak for them selves, regardless of political spin.
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    • Sun Mar 9th 13:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie May Fail - Barron's
      You know, it is easy to say, "no bailouts", but when you look at the total mess we are in, there may be no choice. A stitch in time....may save nine trillion!

      Just pray that those that make the decisions make good choices on how and when to do it in a meaningful way that truly makes a difference... not just "throwing good money after bad"
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    • Sun Mar 9th 13:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wachovia's 'Poorly Timed' Deals Put Dividend at Risk
      So when does it end?
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    • Sun Mar 9th 12:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Not Buying Forward P/E Estimates
      Vikram, you got all backwards! The markets are tanking in every index all over the world except Brazil, not their economies...yet, but that will come. Check your facts bud. The 200 day moving average is an important indicator of future trends, and the markets lead the economy, not the other way around.
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    • Sat Mar 8th 23:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      So Much for That Mortgage REIT Bull Market
      There is a simple answer to your investment needs.

      IYR is the Dow Jones Real Estate Index. For every $10,000 it goes down, SRS goes up $20,000.00. Check it out, I did and I bought 200 shares of in SRS on Friday. The bulls made a run at the REITs late Friday, resulting in a small loss for the day, but with the news of late, that small loss will be recovered in seconds.
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    • Sat Mar 8th 22:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials and Retail: Not as Dire as They Seem
      It would nice if Goldy was alive and well, but she is dead. The banks have no money to finance buyers of all those foreclosed homes. Remember, it takes new loans to enable buyers to those homes. Without new buyers, the housing market cannot recover.

      The US treasury simply does not have the money sitting around to finance a home for everyone who wants one. Those who lost their homes are now homeless, looking for an apartment to rent.

      Also, the same real estate bubble we have had also exist in England, Ireland, Span, China and many other countries around the world. Lets face it the writedowns mean the money is lost.... gone, never to return. And the 7 trillion already lost in the stock markets all over the world will not recover enough to repay those who lost their wealth. So, were does the worlds wealth end up? The oil exporting countries. They have the wealth, not us. They are buying into our financials for a reason.

      Next, elect Obama be president and you can start praying with the koran, just like the one he used when he was sworn in to the Senate. Tough to be a prophet.
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    • Sat Mar 8th 21:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Not Buying Forward P/E Estimates
      Only the Brazil stock index has a 200 day moving average that is positive and just barely so. How can "The weak dollar & growing exports, and the emerging markets will provide a floor to the earning downturn" stated by VIKRAM truly believe that to be true?

      We sneeze, the world markets catch cold. All a mater to time, and I see no way out. Sorry about that. Better get liquid while you can and hang on to your hat! It will be a long hard trek down the mountain of CDO's and CMBS defaults.

      In that environment, forword or trailing PE's will make no difference, even to my dog.
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    • Sun Mar 2nd 21:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Asian Outlook: Coping with U.S. Stagflation
      Agree with your premise of prolonged market downturn and recession, world wide. China and India will fare better than US and Europe. However, China has excess industrial capacity and any slowdown in sales to US and Europe will result in unemployment and stress in their economy and sharply reduced stock prices due to excess capacity as well as real estate inflation both commercial and residential, so they too are likely to have stagflation. (Cap rates in England got as low as 4.5%, less than mortgage rates!) Germany unemployment has finally fallen to 7.1% down from 14% a couple of years ago, but that will likely reverse.

      As our dollar declines and our exports to Europe increase, sales by Europe companies will decline, resulting in lower profits, rising unemployment and inflation, just as here in the USA.

      So, in my judgment look for continued sell off in the stock indexes all over the world. Even Brazil and Mexico are in a downtrend below their 200 day moving average. I follow China using FXI which is already down sharply from the 221 high to the current 145 level. I expect a sharp selloff all through 2008. The market in FXI and EEM will likely recover much faster than US market but only after a sharp sustained decline. So I bought out money puts in FXI and EEM. I also have invested in GLD and SRS to try to survive the downturn.

      The subprime mortgage resets will reach their max this month. Possibly $600 billion is expected to be lost by banks world wide due to subprime and CDOs. Ben said there will be bank failures, and I believe him. Lets pray it is not C or BAC. This thing is really getting bad regardless of what the Goldylocks crowd would have you believe.

      Economic and political stability in China will be threatened by the huge inflation in food prices and shortages which have already led to riots. Troops were called out to maintain order due to shortages during the recent snow crisis. No, it will not be easy anywhere in the world. We will have a crisis of deflation in real estate and inflation in energy, food and everything else we need.
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    • Sun Mar 2nd 19:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Trading Put Options With Buffett
      So Buffet is the guy that has been selling all those puts that I bought, most of which expired before I could profit! Now I know the rest of the story!
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    • Sun Mar 2nd 17:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mortgage REITs: Ignore GAAP, It's All About the Cash
      While REITs without mortgages (all cash ownership) might not be affected directly by the margin calls mentioned above, it is but a matter of time till asset sales which reflect higher capitalization rates can have an effect when the assets of equity REITs are marked to market, using both comparable sales as well as the income approach to value.

      At that point in time, the speculative rent increases and assumed appreciation should knock the socks off all the REITs.
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    • Wed Feb 27th 14:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Spike in Market Turbulence May Point to Capitulation
      You are bang on here! It is not enough for Markets on a day-to-day basis to "wish it wasn't so", only to drop back on the next run of bad news.

      There is a growing trend of disbelief in the notion that Asia markets will de-couple from the US, but that is simply foolishness.

      Europe is growing weaker, their banks have the same problem as the US and ultimately Asia will have to sell to itself! How is that for de-coupling?

      There are no clear answers, no matter how much they are in demand.

      As for me, the only answer is get liquid and be prepared to buy in a few years, if I have anything left to buy with. With the price of real estate at such unreasonable levels in most of the fashionable locations all over the world, (commercial and residential) there is no way to prevent a complete collapse and governments (taxpayers) are just not that rich.

      So much for the welfare state that Obama-Clinton camps would impose on us. They will offer their only solution....

      Raise TAXES on the nasty RICH! They caused this problem! They don't deserve it like our poor voters!

      Wake up democrats and socialist around the world. It takes individual responsibility to keep your head above water when the world economic system is on the verge of collapse.
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    • Tue Feb 26th 23:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Anatomy of a Bear Market
      How can this be a typical crisis if at the end of the downturn, there are no mortgage companies to finance the buyers who want to buy. Think about how much financial capital has been lost in the markets all over the world.... $ 7 trillion Dollars!

      This not a game that has clear winners and losers, some will win by shorting the market, but average investors and institutions, pension funds and banks all over the world have less capital. They did not get that capital that made all the lending possible without taking risk and accumulating over many years.

      So, if the winners on the down thrust of the markets don't come to the aid of the financial system, who will? I as a tax payer am not ready to step up to the plate and lay down my assets to bailout the banks. So who will? How long will it take? It is certain that no one knows, but the most clear example of what can happen and the time involved is the great depression.

      I suggest readers look at the chart of the Dow since 1929 and see how long it took to recover. It also took WWII to pull our economy out of the grave, and if it had not been for American generosity in rebuilding Europe and the rest of the world, there would not be a "global" economy today. Again, if we get down that far and are in WWIII with all the Moslem nations, what then?



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    • Fri Feb 22nd 23:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Bottom Nowhere in Sight
      The most important analysis of the future of real estate will be in the allocation of investment capital available for residential and commercial real estate by typical lenders vs capital for industry and government, etc.

      The stock markets around the world have lost about 7 trillion dollars. Gone. The former owners of that wealth have nothing to show for it.

      So, where will the capital come from the fund normal house loans and new commercial development?

      US Banks have written off 160 Billion in capital. Gone. The money they have left is treasured and will only be loaned to the most credit worthy. You can be sure that lending standards that have gone by the wayside for the last 5 years will not be repeated. Appraisers may not be willing to "hit the number" that has been the way in recent years as regulators will start prosecuting rather than look the other way.

      Think about how many mortgage companies are out of business and people that processed all those loans and check credit reports etc are now unemployed. Getting the system up and running again will take time and a profitable environment.

      So, I totally agree that it will take many years for really hot markets in FL and CA to regain their former price ranges... maybe never. In more typical markets where inflation was 5% or so for many years, there should not be much reduction, but that does not mean that banks will have money to lend.

      Can you imagine the SIV, CDO and CMBS market to ever restart that will make ordinary house and commercial loans available for foreign investors again. I can't imagine that. Which means banks will have to spend years recovering their capital base. And Wall Street investment banks... How long will it take to rebuild their former wealth without the enormous fees they got from packaging loans for incompetent lenders such as Countrywide Financial or WM?


      Another point... the Japan interest rate since the crash in 1990 is still only .05% and just recently they confirmed to leave it the same, even though there is possible inflation. Try comparing charts of the DJI and the N225 and you will see how long it takes to recover from a bubble.
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    • Thu Feb 21st 17:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Morgan Stanley: Commercial Construction Is the Recession's Next Victim
      Your exactly right in your analysis... as far as it goes. You did not mention that in 2007 L/V ratios expanded to 118% and that 59% of commercial loans were interest only, meaning they were financed with short term financing that must be refinanced (like much of the loans in the last couple of years) but refinanced at sharply higher rates as revealed by the interest rates paid in the auction market for high quality munis. This means that the higher mortgage payments will make many commercial investments unfeasible... leading to foreclosure of a lot of prime real estate of all types... possilby leading to fire sales. I suggest shorting REITs or SRS and gain from this mess that is sure to get worse in short order.
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    • Wed Feb 20th 00:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CMBS Spreads Are Under Extreme Stress
      I read your prior article on this subject and wonder how you made out on your January puts in IYR?

      I took a beating on January 08 puts, and I am now planning to sell my Jan 09 FXI puts and go all in to SRS soon. This strategy is very solid in my opinion. The big advantage is there is no time limit as I had on puts that worked to my disadvantage. Thanks for you insight.
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