johnthebear

Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now?

The problem with your analysis as I see it, is that you have not factored in the major correction coming in commercial real estate, world wide. Regional and local Banks will be failing with 60% of their loans in commercial real estate.

Capitalization rates were two low, based on expected appreciation and low interest rates. They will begin to rise with the interest rates and added risk premium due to rising vacancy. Prices of commercial real estate will be falling, as will industrial property with rising unemployment.

This means, that while residential property values may bottom in 2010, there will be a longer delay before commercial real estate will show signs of recovery. New construction might be expected in a more normal recession sponsored by government, but with lower property taxes and failing state governments (CA and NY etc) there is no source of wealth to back up the economy. Then if you really want to get depressed, what will happen as social security tax revenues fall and the system breaks down sooner than expected?

A long bitter road is ahead, better tread carefully.

Might be a that WW III will be needed to end the mess. This could all happen much sooner than you expect. What happens if there is an Iran-Israel war between the time of the election and inaguration? Get right with GOD?

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More

"WE MUST VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBENTS no matter which party they are in."

There can be no change with a "new" president, with the same bunch of FOOLS that got us in the mess.

Tuesday Outlook: Bailout Brouhaha

So much depends on the "package"!

They have it all wrong.

Freeze interest resets from Jan 2008 for 3 years.

To heck with lenders making more money!

Got to stop foreclosures NOW!

Government cannot manage vacant houses!

The "package stinks" and I don't trust Paulson since he was part of the reason we are here with the stupid Fannie-Freddie Fraud beginning in 1995.

All the top democrats, Dodd, Oboman, Frank are at the root of the problem along with Franklin Rains!

How can we trust any of these LIARS?

Analogies to the Great Depression

OldLimey, Thanks I read the article you mentioned, confirmed my understanding of the market.

The only problem is that I own SRS and now I am not sure what the effect will be if they ban the mark-to-market rule. Just think, need some appreciation to support more debt, no problem!

Bailout Is Just the Beginning

A safe place to sock away your money?

TNH Terra Nitrogen Co.

EPS $13.95
PE 7.52
YIELD 14.24%

75% of the stock is held by insiders and there is very low trading volume. Yesterday was only 195,000 shares! I own the stock and recommend it.

New Rules for Chinese Stock Market Investors

Does anyone have a prediction on FXI in 6 months?

I am thinking $20? or will it take a little longer?

Analogies to the Great Depression

It is amazing to me that no one is talking about the overpriced commercial real estate with 5% capitalization rates that fill the portfolios of the REITs?

Who will bail out the REITs?

There is just not enough money to bail out everyone, especially as unemployment begins to climb. Who in the world will we get to occupy all those offices formerly occupied by Wall Street?

Surely there has to be a better way than what Paulson and the democrats want.

Google "Community Reinvestment Act" and check out the discussion in Wikipedia for clear description of how the mess really started with Freddie and Fannie and who really ruined it for all of us.

Paulson Stampedes Congress

Google "Community Reinvestment Act" or check out Wikipedia for a very good discussion of the history leading to the massive bailout.

What you will read will make your blood boil and tell you the truth without political distortion.

There are many other web sites that discuss and analyze the financial failure of Fannie and Freddie. Just take a look with Google. You don't have to take my word for it.

It is amazing that the public is so dumb and easily fooled by the smooth talking oboman.

When we elect him president, he will control 100% of the United States Government. It will not take long before he takes over the Supreme Court by appointing a couple of very young left wing extremist to the court. You can say good bye to everything good about America.

We will look just like Russia, And to think, not a shot was fired! Lord help us, we know not what we do!

Can Capitalism Survive Its Latest Entanglement With Socialism?

Google Community ReInvestment Act or check out Wikipedia for a very good discussion of the history leading to the massive bailout.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...


If you are truly interested in why the United States and the rest of the world are possibly heading to a disaster greater than the "Depression" read all about in Wikipedia.

What you will read will make your blood boil and tell you the truth without political distortion.

There are many other web sites that discuss and analyze the financial failure of Fannie and Freddie. Just take a look with Google. You don't have to take my word for it.

Just search for Community_Reinvestment...

Bailout Fever: China Considering Exporter Bailout

Exporters may get bailout, to keep them around for the upturn...whenever, but their stock prices will likely continue to slide.

Looks like it is time for Wall Street to lighten up on their recommendations for China stocks, and FXI.

China: A Run on the Bank of East Asia

Mr. Pettis, I have admired your courage and honesty in reporting from China for several months as the World-Wide financial crisis evolves.

I have invested in puts in FXI and in FXP using ProShares ETF.

I wonder if you have looked at FXP as an investment which is 2:1 bet against FXI? If you have analyzed this investment, could you share your thoughts as to how well this mechanism is working and likely to work in the future as financial strains become more obvious.

So far, the 2:1 ratio is working as advertised, but in view of the exchanges restrictions on shorting, I am wondering what might happen to this and other ProShares funds?

I also own shares in SRS which is the 2:1 inverse of IYR. I have looked at the prospectus which was not available on line when I first invested in both funds. It is complicated and I don't understand them. Any help you could share would be appreciated. Thanks, John

Commercial Real Estate Loans May Be Next Shoe to Drop

It could happen

Commercial Real Estate Loans May Be Next Shoe to Drop

Agree with you totally DaveW.

I just pray that it continues to work in the future as in the past. I am looking for SRS going to $200 in the next 6 months.

As the article reports, many smaller banks will fail with the large volume of commercial loans. There is simply not enough money available to allow buyers to get financing when buildings come on the market, which will happen all over as vacancy increases and foreclosures also increase. Those buildings will be sold at firesale prices!

Looks like we are heading to caves, automatic weapons and canned food for survival! God help us!

Thanks for the article.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Jim Bunning got it right:

Paulson, you were CEO of Goldman Sachs from 1999 to 2006 yet you did not know the problems that were created by the CDO and securitization of dumb subprime mortgages and the lack of oversight!

His comany was a leader in changing the law in 1999 during Clinton's term that allowed all this crap to happen! How can he claim such ignorance? Are we dumb enough to buy that line?

The lowest quality mortgages were still being written all through Paulson's term.

They have not talked at all about commercial mortgages. They will be marked to market, a cut of 25% or more in lost value. Talk about a huge loss. General Growth Properties REIT fell 25% yesterday because of inability to re-finance it's debt. I hear that McDonald's was denied new financing by Bank of America because of a shortage of capital!

There are many properties that are mortgaged for $1 billion or more! Just think,

700 properties at $1billion each would consume all the money Paulson is seeking!

And now he would include credit cards and student loans!

What in the world does he mean by transparency and oversight? Wait till he spends all $700 Billion taking care of his wall street friends before he informs congress of his strategy?

Oversight should allow review and reports on a weekly basis to Congress, and with the opportunity for congress to disagree with his assessment of what to do. So far, I see no way for Congress to ever take a look at how he is doing!

Looks like we are heading to caves, automatic weapons and canned food for survival! God help us!

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

I wish there was a way to understand the mechanics of FXP/SRS, David Fry met with ProShares about a month ago and I asked him to check it out for me, but he has not responded with an answer that I am aware of. So far, it works as advertised.

At least exchange traded funds such as we have are not affected by the new short sell rule on financial's.