johnthebear

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    • Wed Sep 10th 14:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie and Freddie Default Exposes Transparency Issues in CDS Marketplace
      THE ONLY ANSWER IS TO FIRE CONGRESS,

      BOTH PARTIES

      AND BRING IN NEW BLOOD

      THAT WILL WORK FOR THE AMERICAN

      PEOPLE RATHER THAN POLITICAL SPECIAL

      INTEREST TO MAKE THE IN-CROWD RICHER.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 14:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie and Freddie Default Exposes Transparency Issues in CDS Marketplace
      In 2005, 8,000 Professional Real Estate Appraisers (10% of appraisers) signed a petition to the Government complaining of the pressure placed on appraisers to "hit the number" or else loose status with the lender.

      The petition was ignored in all respects ... the reason?

      Fannie and Freddie paid $174,000,000 dollars of company funds to buy off Congress in both parties to not do legislative oversight! They got what they paid for!

      So.... we have subprime.... Alt A etc. and phony appraisals, loan originators, investment banks selling securitized mortgages, (residential and commercial) that are all part of a huge ponzy scheme! Everyone from top to bottom, borrower to lender and investor had a hand in this massive failure of the world financial SYSTEM.


      With so much money and huge up front fees available to Lehman, Merrill, Bear etc, no wonder real estate prices doubled and tripled both in the USA, UK, and even China and many other countries etc.

      How will it end.... Likely in GREATER DEPRESSION than ever seen before!

      IT IS GLOBAL.... BETTER CYA!
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 14:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie and Freddie Default Exposes Transparency Issues in CDS Marketplace
      PLEASE BLOCK "BIGTOURE" ADVERTISMENT.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 10th 14:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie and Freddie Sitting in a Tree, F-A-I-L-I-N-G
      In 2005, 8,000 Professional Real Estate Appraisers (10% of appraisers) signed a petition to the Government complaining of the pressure placed on appraisers to "hit the number" or else loose status with the lender.

      The petition was ignored in all respects ... the reason?

      Fannie and Freddie paid $174,000,000 dollars to buy off Congress in both parties to not do their legislative oversight!

      So.... we have subprime.... Alt A etc. and phony appraisals, loan originators, investment banks selling securitized mortgages, residential and commercial that are all a huge ponzy scheme!


      With so much money and huge fees available by Lehman, Merrill, Bear etc, no wonder real estate prices doubled and tripled both in the USA and
      UK etc.

      How will it end....

      Likely in GREATER DEPRESSION

      than ever seen before!

      GLOBAL.... BETTER CYA!
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 23:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Securitized Mortgages Rise Again?
      It would seem that investors have been burned so bad buying this pig in a poke, that the investment banks may never be able to use this vehicle again. If so, what does that say about the future of the real estate industry?

      The investment banks were creating money at a 30-1 to 40-1 ratio with no thought to the quality of the loans that made up each package. That is why there was so much money chasing the big deals for the REITs in the last 5 years. Money flowed into the REITs by the ton!

      I would like to know the numbers "before and after" and what the future holds for the investment banks and are their any alternative ways to put lipstick on this pig?
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 23:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Securitized Mortgage Trends [Housing Tracker]
      "Securitized Mortgage Trends" was the title of the article. Made me wonder about the future of securitized mortgages as an industry?

      It would seem that investors have been burned so bad buying this pig in a poke, that the investment banks may never be able to use this vehicle again. If so, what does that say about the future of the real estate industry?

      The investment banks were creating money at a 30-1 to 40-1 ratio with no thought to the quality of the loans that made up each package. That is why there was so much money chasing the big deals for the REITs in the last 5 years. Money flowed into the REITs by the ton!

      I would like to know the numbers "before and after" and what the future holds for the investment banks and are their any alternative ways to put lipstick on this pig?
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 5th 15:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy?
      DID YOU NOTICE THAT TNH IS NOW $133, UP $7.30 TODAY! (5.81%)
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 23:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: Slowing Economy, Rapid Credit Growth?
      Did you notice that FXP was up $8.72 or 9.55% to $100/share today while the Dow fell 344 points?
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 23:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy?
      Fredrickson, did you know that TNH has a dividend of 12.1% and a PE of only 9.03 today after rising 3.27% to $125.70 per share? That happened on a day when the Dow was down 344 points. Earnings are growing with a profit margin of 42.68% and return on equity is 140%. Most investors will feel that this is very impressive record in an industry that is strong and growing.

      You sound like you think you know something that I should know?

      I really would appreciate it if you could tell me and readers of SA what I am missing.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 14:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: Market Breaks Below 2300
      It would appear that the public is becoming more dissatisfied with the government. I would hate to think how pessimistic our people would be if our market had fallen by more than 60% and no end in sight. No wonder property prices are falling. What are the incentives when so much wealth has been lost in the market.

      And then, consider how much of a let down the people would have with the end of the Olympics and seeing all the tourist go home, taking their money with them. That would be tough when you think about. Now, add on all the natural disasters and the inefficiency of government, news from the outside about democracy and I see big trouble coming for the government. The army is large, but the population is Huge.

      I have been forecasting a lot of bad news for over a year from China that will be evident this fall, and it appears that it is happening. I own puts in FXI for Jan 09 so you can see that I have backed up my ideas with my money. I also invest in FXP, which is up over 8% today. FXI is heading toward 20 in the next few months.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 4th 11:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash Corp. Update: Time To Buy?
      I like TNH much more than POT due to lower PE

      and very high dividend.

      Now trading at $123, coming off a recent correction at $96 and headed back to the recent high of $171.

      This is one of those very high dividend stocks that you need to make a major part of your portfolio during the next 3 years of down markets and low interest rates on savings. I consider this a very safe place to store money with great capital gain potential.

      POT now has a PE of 23 and was as high as 60 and almost no dividend.

      TNH now has a PE of only 8.8 which is cheap by anyone's standards.

      So why buy POT?
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 3rd 10:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commercial Real Estate: Eye On Hotels [Housing Tracker]
      Thanks Judy, good job. Your first story is a "must read" for those who invest in REITs or in IYR.

      "A Lender's Empire Is Built, Then Crumbles. “Mortgages Ltd. has gone in less than two years from being Arizona's largest private commercial real-estate lender to a company plunged into bankruptcy following the suicide of its CEO, Scott Coles."

      Also, when I clicked on the story for the full story, I found the comments at the end very revealing and instructive for those wanting to buy real estate in this market.

      Just think, developers were paying 14% for money which Mortgages Ltd. had borrowed from the bunny at 13%! How can developers afford 14% construction loans on property they are developing which will have a cap rate of 6%?

      Apparently none of these projects had an honest feasibility study. This is terrible. So many investors all over the country will lose big as this thing unwinds. Prices of the foreclosed commercial property will surely fall, and these "comparable sales" will certainly have to be reflected in mark-to-market accounting by the REITs.

      The relatively high dividends paid by the REITs can never make up for lost capital.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 2nd 18:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China Stocks: Is Now the Time to Buy?
      Sorry, FXP was up 4.47% today, FXI was down 1.85% today. (FXP is a double short of FXI)
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 2nd 18:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China Stocks: Is Now the Time to Buy?
      Not the time! You should read and try to understand what Michael Pettis said in his article on Sept. 1 "China: Slowing Economy" Here is my response to Mr. Pettis which applies to you as well.

      Michael, I agree that anticipated consumption for the Olympics was a major factor in growth to date, so it reasonable to expect a large slowdown in consumer demand as well as commercial demand for supplies etc. in the coming months.

      Likewise, you mention huge spending on infrastructure, including massive road building projects. In a communist country it may be very easy to take the land (compared with USA), but it still takes a long time to develop plans and actually begin construction. Then, I wonder about the workers on such projects. I would think they would be taken from the farming areas and paid very little (slave wages with long hours). This suggest relatively little impact for the next 3 years on the urban economy.

      You mention they consider cutting taxes. I have difficulty in understanding their economy. Do they have an IRS and full financial reporting? And Jail if you don't pay? What are the relative tax rates for rich and poor people and for business? Hard to figure how much of a cut would make a difference, and how it would relate to the government budget. I assume they can print money pretty fast when they want, just as we can!

      As for their government spending habits, their government sounds downright democratic! Then when you add in "strike" in a communist country, it really sounds like they are getting ready for much bigger change!

      "I expected there to be a burst in securitization taking place as banks shifted loans off balance sheet." Don't tell them how stupid that would be. Let them screw up like our banks. Did you hear that the Swiss and German banks are going to have to raise their capital ratios? Up from 2.5 to 5 percent. Still low in comparison to our banks. The off-balance sheet theme sounds likely to me, because it is sneaky!

      Sounds like they have their own subprime problem with securitization much like ours. Unbelievable, that they cannot learn from our mistakes.

      FXI was up 4.47% today, following my theme that what is bad for China is good for John!

      I am looking for FXP to more than double from here.

      View article »
    • Tue Sep 2nd 18:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: Slowing Economy, Rapid Credit Growth?
      EXCUSE me, I meant FXP was up, FXI was down 1.85%!
      View article »
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