johnthebear

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256 Comments

    • Wed Jul 30th 12:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Terra Industries: An Interesting Fertilizer Play
      Where can you find information of the agreement between the companies on the dividend obligations looking forward?

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    • Tue Jul 29th 22:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Seven Cities Show Slight Housing Price Gains in May
      Any word on commercial property sales in those same cities? If it is tough getting a house loan, it must really be tough getting a $1-5 million commercial loan.
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    • Mon Jul 28th 23:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why the Housing Bill Won't Help the Housing Market
      Foolish lending globally will not go away without great pain.

      I see a consensus forming that this problem will last a very long time.

      Fortunately President Obama will raise taxes enough to bail out all the poor people in the world.

      Good ole USA comes to the rescue "citizens of the world of Obama", you now have a new President! Hail to the King.
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    • Mon Jul 28th 01:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commercial Real Estate Securities Defaults Rising, Slowly
      "If we look at the same loan population that we used in our Aug. 2, 2007, study (loans originated between 1993 and 2005), the default rate actually increased to 5.01%."

      Standard & Poor’s expects defaults to increase gradually in 2008 and 2009.

      S&P says “deteriorating standards for loan underwriting and origination, as well as a rise in frothy property valuations over the past few years, could undermine the performance of commercial mortgage loans and lead to gradually increasing defaults and loss severities, especially over the next 12-24 months.”

      This analysis suggest that the loan loss of the banking system which is now $468 B will rapidly increase in the 2009-2011 time period. How is it possible that anyone can suggest that we are near the end of our banking-credit crisis?

      Where will the capital come from to enable mortgages to make sale of overvalued commercial real estate possible? Looks like the well is going dry and the treasury is on it's last legs. Who will bail out C, BAC or Washington Mutual? Looks bad IYR and the REITs that need to sell properties to continue paying high dividends investors have come to expect in the future.

      With the drying up of capital for both residential and commercial mortgages, both interest rates and cap rates will rise sharply having a very negative impact on property values, which must be marked to market in coming quarters. This will be true for commercial property all over the world, not just a US problem!

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    • Fri Jul 25th 22:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citigroup, Capital One See Increasing Risks in CRE [Housing Tracker]

      Thanks Judy, the quotes you cited reflect the weak state of the commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) and other CDO's.

      "While an improving default rate is positive for the sector, the decline was largely caused by the elevated amount of new issuance that entered the CMBS market in 2006.”

      I am really worried about how the market will adjust to the huge write-downs in the commercial mortgage sector. It was amazing how much IYR declined with the Fed's first mention that "commercial real estate was slowing." The Fed must be very careful here to not state the truth too clearly. They walk a very narrow path. I would hate to be in their shoes these days.
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    • Thu Jul 24th 16:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash Corp. Earns $2.82, a 220% Increase
      WOW
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    • Tue Jul 22nd 10:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Case for Buying China Now
      China can't make it selling to itself, even with it's huge population.

      The global economy is on the verge of recession and some countryies will face depression before the tide turns, 4 to 10 years from now.

      Get real and keep your powder dry. There will be a time to buy FXI, but certainly not now IMO. When that time comes, I will be a buyer of FXI.

      FXP is a better bet. I look for FXI to go to 60 and FXP to go to 200 by November, 2008.
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    • Mon Jul 21st 22:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Just How Terrible Is Housing as an Asset Class? Roubini Weighs In
      An observation:

      State and local property tax revenues are about to be drastically reduced as tax appeals skyrocket. Tax officials will not roll over without a fight, but when revenues are cut 30%, there will be a lot of pain that will not go away for many years. No one is predicting re-inflation of property values to the former level anytime soon. It will take a long time, IMO.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 20th 17:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Barclays Global ETFs: iShares Doing the Splits
      How would a 3:1 split on FXI relate to FXP, the ProShares 2:1 inverse of FXI?

      Also, how would a 3:1 split affect puts in FXI?

      I would appreciate your insight on these questions.
      View article »
    • Sat Jul 19th 22:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: June CPI is Down, but PPI is Up
      Too bad, democracy would greatly reduce the fear factor the rest of the world has toward China. You probably should check your facts about the conditions in China in 1989.
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    • Sat Jul 19th 22:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Spanish, UK- And Now Canadian Housing Stress [Housing Tracker]
      Judy Weil, SA Editor

      Thank you I appreciate your column and response to my questions. You do a very good job.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 17th 22:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Alesco Financial: REIT Selling For Less Than Cash On Hand
      So what happens when a REIT defaults on dividend requirements? What agency is in charge and how long does it take to wind down?
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    • Thu Jul 17th 21:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Spanish, UK- And Now Canadian Housing Stress [Housing Tracker]
      Please give an update on CMBS and CDO for commercial properties. Also, your insight on price trends on shopping centers, office buildings and warehouse properties, USA and world markets.

      How much effect has raising lending standards to past norms affected the number and size of commercial loans? Did standards decline in Europe as much as they have in the US?

      How long do you think that it will take for securitizing commercial mortgages to reach 50% of the level that existed prior to 2006?

      Is the LBO market dead without securitized mortgages?

      How will the big investment banks make it without the securitized securities market?

      Will we every believe in the ratings agencies again?

      Thanks for your thoughts.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 17th 20:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China: June CPI is Down, but PPI is Up
      “Pakistan investors stormed out of the Karachi Stock Exchange, smashed windows and cursed regulators after the benchmark index fell for a 15th day, the worst losing streak in at least 18 years.”

      With several million troops guarding and spying on the folks, you can see why they haven't firebomb the China stock exchange offices yet!

      I remember a young man who stood in the Great Square facing a line of tanks headed his way on worldwide TV. The problem in 1989 was very high inflation and the threat was very real that there would be a revolution against the communist government. Now they have a market economy, but have never faced a recession as serious as Japan faced in 1990 or our 1929 market collapse.

      With the Shanghai exchange down over 55% and the likely to drop by another 50% from this level, you can be sure the government is worried. It is amazing to me the disconnect of the world markets ignoring the SSEC index and pushing up the price of FXI under these circumstances for the same stocks. Do they read any thing but the NY Times and mainstream media TV? Bloomberg provides the information needed for informed citizens, but little of that is filtered through the TV networks.
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    • Thu Jul 17th 19:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Just How Terrible Is Housing as an Asset Class? Roubini Weighs In
      Unfortunately, it became politically expedient to talk about the percentage of home ownership as justification for lack of mortgage standards.

      I expected more from government than this lack of moral understanding of the economic role that housing plays in the countries long term well being. I pray that the next administration, whoever, will require all levels of government regulators to follow traditional common sense as well as the rules.

      The tragedy that has befallen American homeowners and the world wide loss of $14 trillion dollars in stock prices was totally avoidable, and it will take decades to recover.

      Shame, shame on them.
      View article »
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