johnthebear

Total Rating:
+1 / 0

256 Comments

    • Mon Jun 30th 18:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ProShares ETFs: Why Volume Trading Makes a Difference
      John the bear wrote on June 28:

      I am amazed that there is a way to get a 2:1 ratio against an index, and I admit to investing without knowing all the facts.

      I would appreciate it if you could explain how the process works so that I will have greater confidence in the future as my profit keeps expanding my holdings.

      Please try to find an answer for me.

      Have you asked ProShares to explain it to you?
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 29th 08:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Endless Winter for New Home Sales
      WHAT THIS MEANS IS THERE IS NO FINANCING FOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES! THE BANKS ARE BROKE AND HAVE NO MONEY EXCEPT FOR THE VERY BEST CREDIT.

      MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES ARE ON THE RISE... HEADING TOWARD 10%, LIKE THE 1970-90 PERIOD.

      REALLY TOUGH TIME FOR THE REITS'S. THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PAY DIVIDENDS LIKE THE PAST WHEN THEY TRY TO SELL THEIR PROPERTIES, WHILE NOI IS DROPPING. THE DOW JONES REAL ESTATE INDEX (IYR) IS HEADED DOWN.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 10:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Worst Dow June Since Depression
      You have not seen anything yet!

      TAX, TAX,TAX

      SPEND, SPEND, SPEND

      DEBT, DEBT, DEBT, DEBT, DEBT

      FORECLOSE, FORECLOSE, FORECLOSE,

      o'BAMANIA!!! o'BAMANIA!!! o'BAMANIA!!! o'BAMANIA!!!

      THE MARKETS WILL TRULY GO DOWN FOR THE KILL IF WE ELECT o'BAMANIA!!!

      I AM NOT THRILLED WITH McCAN, BUT I SURE DO LIKE HIS PLAN TO DRILL OFFSHORE, FUND NUCLEAR AND OTHER ALTERNATE SOURCES OF ENERGY AND FORGET THIS ETHANOL SOLUTION. WE MUST INCREASE OIL SUPPLY NOW, WHILE WORKING ON ALTERNATIVE ENERGY. WE NEED TO ANNOUNCE THAT WE WILL USE ALL OF OUR STRATEGIC OIL SUPPLY STARTING TODAY. THAT INCREASE IN SUPPLY WILL DRIVE THE PRICE OF OIL BACK TO $50, THEN WE CAN REPLACE OUR OIL AT THE LOWER PRICE, RATHER THAN PAYING $140 NOW. HOW IS THAT FOR A PLAN?

      I SURE WISH WE WOULD DRILL IN ANWAR. STUPID ENVIRONMENTALIST SAID 20 YEARS AGO THAT IF WE DRILLED THERE, THAT IT WOULD ONLY LOWER GASOLINE 1 PENNY! THAT WAS WHEN GAS WAS $1.29/GALLON. THEY HAVE NOT CHANGED THEIR THINKING WITH THE CHANGING TIMES. LOOKS LIKE THEY WOULD HAVE KNOWN THEN THAT THE PRICE OF OIL WAS GOING TO RISE OVER TIME, NOT STAY AT $1.29 WHERE A PENNY WOULD NOT JUSTIFY DRILLING.
      NOW, WE ARE HEADED TOWARD $150 OIL AND $200 AS SOON AS OPEC CAN DO THE DEAL. OF COURSE THEY WOULD NOT LISTEN TO BUSH, HAT IN HAND PLEADING FOR MORE SUPPLY.

      OIL PRICE IS SIMPLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND. OPEC HAS THE SUPPLY AND WE HAVE THE DEMAND... GUESS WHO WINS?

      THE CRATS ARE STUCK ON STUPID AND THEY WILL DESTROY FREEDOM. YOU WOULD THINK THEY WERE WORKING FOR OPEC, SINCE OPEC WANTS OIL TO RISE AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE SO THEY WILL HAVE THE GOLD AND WE HAVE NOTHING. THEY ARE ALREADY BUYING OUR BANKS AND REAL ESTATE (REMEMBER THE NY PORT DEAL) AND TO FUND DEMOCRATS TO CARRY OUT THEIR EVIL PLAN. (REMEMBER CHINA AND MID EAST FUNDING CLINTON?)

      THEY WANT THE FREE WORLD TO BECOME "ISLUM." THE NON-MUSLIM OPEC MEMBERS OF THE CARTEL ARE ALSO CRAT CO-CONSPIRATORS AND WILL BECOME FUTURE SLAVES OF "ISLUM." STUCK ON STUPID. THOSE WITH THE GOLD MAKE THE RULES. I HAVE LITTLE FAITH IN THE INTELLIGENCE OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AT THIS VITAL TIME IN HISTORY. BETTER DO SOME SERIOUS PRAYING FOLKS, EVERYONE IS ON HIS OWN! GET RIGHT WITH GOD, TIME IS RUNNING OUT.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 09:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dow at 8000 Is Not Out of the Question
      Following Friday's trading in which the Dow Jones finally hit the -20% threshold to be called a "Bear Market", I just have to wonder when the talking heads will finally give in and call the current economic downturn a:

      "RECESSION"
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 28th 09:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ProShares ETFs: Why Volume Trading Makes a Difference
      I invest in ultra short FXP (China) and SRS (Dow Jones RE index) and have done very well with both. Trades have executed quickly and I chart each in Yahoo and include the FXI and IYR to compare trends as to which is moving up faster.

      I am amazed that there is a way to get a 2:1 ratio against an index, and I admit to investing without knowing all the facts.

      I would appreciate it if you could explain how the process works so that I will have greater confidence in the future as my profit keeps expanding my holdings.

      I appreciate ProShares and the opportunity they have provided to the small investor.
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 27th 20:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Emerging Market Investing: Really an Ex-Communist Play?
      There is no true safe hiding place to park capital during the downturn that seems to be gaining momentum.

      It is amazing to continue to hear so many of the talking heads call for increased exposure to China and BRIC countries as an alternate for US. It does not appear that have a clue as to the 54% decline already experienced off the high of the China Bubble. China Shanghai (^ssec) index is now at it's 52 week low at 2,748 and was down 5.29% today (Friday).

      The high was over 6,100. Best get out or be short on both markets IMO. I own FXP which trades at a 2:1 ratio with FXI. FXP is up over 20% during the last 6 months.

      If you would look at all of the indexes around the world, you will find all are trading below their 200 day moving average and China and India are down the most. This true of most of the stocks on the NYSE. That is why they call it a "bear market"

      It is so dumb to give investment advice without looking at the markets where you are suggesting investment. Check out FXI and FXP and do your own analysis. That way you will be a winner, regardless of what the DOW does.
      View article »
    • Fri Jun 27th 13:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      David, Thank you for your detailed charts and analysis.

      I follow FXP and SRS closely and now you have exposed me to some other possibilities.

      Just one question: How do they work the system to do the 2:1 percent adjustment for FXP? I have made great profits on both, but never fully understood how they can keep as close mathematically as they do. Can you help me out here?
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 11:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Banking Subprime Fallout [Housing Tracker]
      PS: I used the word "Islum" intentionally. Look how the average Arab lives or other OPEC citizen lives... slums. Only the sheiks have the power and wealth. Those the do convert to Islum will live in the slums if they are allowed to live. They really won't want you to live except as their slave.

      Wake up world, the stupid environmental socialist are taking away democracy and freedom. O' Bama is the worst of the lot. Tax and Spend LIBERALS to the limit to take away your freedom. So many are so foolish and they accept the notion that change is in their best interest. Unfortunately, I don't see any way to stop the LIBERALS in a declining market and economy in an election year. Too many foolish media types trying to spin their way into the white house regardless of HOW BIG THE BIG LIE REALLY IS.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 09:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did IMF Pop the Emerging Markets Bubble?

      The fall of the emerging markets is not a surprise. The amount of the ultimate drop will be a big surprise to the markets.

      Try this exercise in Yahoo. Enter all of the major market indexes and set the heading for the 200 day moving average. When you see markets all over the world trading at or below their 200 day moving average, one will be convinced that markets have not "decoupled" and things are going down hill fast due to the many factors listed above.

      Now try this compare the ETF charts of each country with a chart that allows comparison with the NASDAQ in year 2000. Note the shape of the bubbles as compared with the NASDAQ on the rise, and on the fall. The market deflation on both the up and down sides are very much alike. This comparison gives an indication of how low each ETF might go as the hot air is released from each.

      Also compare IYR, the Dow Jones Real Estate Index to these charts and you find a similar shape that lead to a bottom in 2003. All this suggest that the 3 year drop in tech stocks may be minor in size compared with what is coming. The basis of this conclusion is that the Dow & S&P did not get overvalued to the same extent, nor were the indexes around the world.

      Most of the pain in 2000-2003 was limited to the tech area rather than a broad decline that affected markets all over the world. The same cannot be said this time. With Oil at record and rising prices along with other commodities surge in price inflation, the potential for a much sharper and longer duration downturn are a much greater risk.

      This suggest a possible "recession" that might take twice as long to recover from since the emerging markets of the BRIC countries will not be available to help the USA AND THE USA WILL MARKET WILL NOT BE ABLE TO HELP THE BRIC COUNTRIES OUT OF "RECESSION"! Some may call this a global depression, worse than 1929. It would not surprise me. That is my bet. I own FXP and SRS to hedge against this risk. I am a bear on the market as you can tell from my name.


      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 01:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Banking Subprime Fallout [Housing Tracker]
      The sloppy wall street technique of securitization of loans is spreading to Spain. They will repeat all the mistakes of Wall Street only going one step further. Their loans are largely made to migrant workers from East Europe, that were imported to build spec housing. The securitized loans will be provided to "government-subsi... home buyers and small businesses and construction companies to carry out remodeling projects." So what is this paper worth?

      The problem gets worse and more sickening the more you learn.

      So how long before the residential market bottoms...2010-2012.

      How long before the commercial market bottoms, 2012-2015.

      It takes huge amounts of capital to fund commercial real estate sales. The government will probably push banks to lend first to residential, rather than commercial projects.

      Rising vacancies and foreclosures are on the way, and it will be very hard to reverse the trend which is only now becoming understood.

      There are no experts to answer these questions, only educated guesses each investor will have to make for himself, with a lot of bull to sort through.

      Unfortunately the FED and other government sources cannot tell the truth because of the theory that

      "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

      So much for an honest appraisal of the future. Each investor must beware or get burned. Hold cash and go short till the time is right, then the low prices will amaze you.

      It is my theory that the Oil producing countries are intentionally causing the value of stocks and real estate to drop so they can cash in on their profits in Oil of the last few years. They could not defeat us with 9/11, but they sure can through economic collapse of the world. The Muslims want to dominate the world and other non-Muslim countries are stupid coconspirators. One day they may have to switch their religion to Islum or die.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 00:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wednesday Options Outlook: ORCL, IYR, CMCSK, ANF, ETN, MDCO, BAC, BA
      It is very hard to understand the point the writer is trying to make. So what direction does he assume each stock to take in Thursdays trading... IYR is my main interest as I invest in SRS at 2:1 ratio?

      Please boil it down to your estimate of direction and magnitude for each of these positions for tomorrow's trading.

      Thanks.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 24th 23:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dow at 8000 Is Not Out of the Question
      Agree, 8,000 is very likely. Keep in mind that all of the world indexes are now trading at or below their 200 day moving average. That has to tell you something.

      The problem is we are in the early phase of global recession and the emerging markets will continue falling, probably over correcting to the downside, just as US markets typically do and then take time to test and retest before a solid base is formed that can cause investors to regain confidence and invest again.

      No one can claim to be an expert...these are truly remarkable times like nothing we have seen before.

      I find oil related stocks and agriculture still to be the most promising on the positive.

      The commercial real estate market is toast and there simply is not enough money in the world to sustain the high prices and fund the over rated mortgages to keep prices up. This true all over the world. When Capitalization rates on income property are lower than typical mortgage rates of the past century, you can be sure that the fall will be nasty in the commercial market.

      I have SRS, FXP, OIL, TRA as my primary holdings, about equal positive and negative positions. Both doing quite well. Also have puts in FXI.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 24th 23:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Double Down On This China Fall
      I was wrong about puts. I still have Jan 09 puts, but have lost most of their value. Could still gain if the FXI drops below 100.

      I would have been better off owning FXP which has no time limit and pays off double when FXI goes down. After starting to use FXP, I have been able to use it effectively for short term trading.

      Thanks for your article.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 23rd 14:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Foreign Equity Conundrum
      Sound advice. Beware of BRIC markets. They are all trending lower, and will go down a lot more as the global recession takes hold.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 21st 16:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fund Managers Sound Off on BRIC Markets
      What a crisis? There is no true safe hiding place to park capital during the downturn that seems to be gaining momentum.

      I talked with a Merrill Lynch insider yesterday and he expressed concern for the bond market, that ratings are suspect at all levels. His main focus is 17 day treasury. His main concern is return of principal rather than return on capital with so much at stake. My friend said that some money market funds are now including auction rate securities, trying to boost yield.

      I agree with the tone and conclusions of the writer. Even Brazil is now trending back to it's 200 day MA.

      It is amazing to continue to hear so many of the talking heads call for increased exposure to China and BRIC countries as an alternate for US. It does not appear that have a clue as to the 53% decline already experienced off the high of the China Bubble. The loss of government controlled oil prices will certainly be a shock to the China and India market. Best get out or be short on both markets IMO. I own FXP which was up 10% on Friday.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»