theobannion

Trade Deficit Threatens Recovery, Destroys Jobs

"Money spent on Chinese coffee makers and Middle East oil cannot be spent on U.S.-made goods and services..." American goods & services manufactured in Mexico and Taiwan? Or do you mean hamburgers, over-priced coffee, and bankers? If we could sell some bankers overseas, we might turn things around. ... Nah, bad idea - they would smell them and know that they're rotten. If only we could find that Greater Fool that everyone's talking about!

But how much are dummies like our Big Bankers (damn fools probably flunked out of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT.... Really? You mean they actually graduated? And then they still screwed us - sorry, I meant screwed "UP"). Gee! Ain't life interesting?

SOB.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Short term, commodity inflation caused by a weak dollar is good for stocks, because it implies that deflation is dead (which isn't necessarily true, which I suspect we will soon discover). But long term, pricing power belongs first to the monopolies, so that even miners & basic materials mfg'ers have to put out for electricity, diesel, telephone. This kind of cost-push ultimately makes its way up the value-added chain & hits more & more resistance as it goes - resistance in the sense that ultimately it reaches mfg'ers that can't raise prices, although their costs have gone up.

Working people, including the middle class not rich enough to live by clipping coupons, have to pay more for food (Kraft, Kellogg, Coke, etc. can almost always raise prices) & utilities, which sends workers looking for wage increases, and the party ends. Actually, by that stage, it has already ended for stocks.

Best,
SOB.


On Aug 03 11:47 AM 3 degrees of seperation wrote:

> Hi Phil:
>
> The chart for SPY may not look so strong if measured in Euros. You
> are exactly right about the weak dollar effect on stocks.
>
> Keep up the good work.

Final Spike in the Bear Market Rally?

The rally will last until the FOP's* have to pull their fingers out of the holes in the dyke because there are more holes than they have fingers. To move the NDX and the COMPQ, it only takes co-ordinated buying in whichever laggards are taking the index down toward support - maybe two or three at a time. Same six stocks dominate both indices. To defend support for the S&P 500, the logic is similar - you certainly don't have to buy all five hundred stocks!

The FOP's have to support the mkt to protect their financial interests & political power and, in their view bide time for the economy to recover and catch up to the mkt. Also, banks had to float stock to respond to the demands resulting from the stress tests (some stress test - a bank with a fulminating coronary infarct could have passed [oh, wait - that would imply that banks and bankers have hearts]): How could they float stock into a falling mkt?

This mkt has been a manipulated fraud since probably the end of March.

*FOP - Friends of Paulson, sometimes referred to as Champagne Shirlies, to differentiate them from Joe Sixpack. Unlike JS's well-worn work boots, CS's Gucci loafers are only worn at the heels, from being propped on mahogony desks, polished to a high shine by undocumented office cleaning crews. (Gee, I hope they got big bonuses for a brilliant job.)

By the way, congratulations on your crystal ball! Wish I had one.

Best,
SOB.
On Jul 16 08:59 AM BPYHO wrote:

> This Bear Market ralley will last until around 9500, and shorting
> before the market hits at least 9200 will cost you some money...

There Won't Be a Recovery

The word gangster is fine, but you should be aware that "The Mafia" came into being as a secret society to protect Sicilians from their foreign conquerors - who came from east, west, north, and south over the past two thousand years. They were thus inherently anti-government, anti-expropriation, and yes anti-crime. Rape a Sicilian woman and the mafia would draw straws to see who would get the honor of slitting your throat. Failure to do your allotted task meant lifelong dishonor and probably your own death. To this day there are Sicilians who would go to the mafia before going to the police or the government. Sicilian culture is as different from that of mainland Italy as is Corsican culture from that of mainland France or Cretan culture from that of the rest of Greece. It's unfortunate that power leads to its abuse and ultimately to its demise. Witness the history of the United States.

Also unfortunate is that the media have invented Russian, Irish, Chinese, Lebanese, Mongol...etc. "mafias." It's the price we pay for being a nation that no longer reads.

To think of Paulson or his successor as "mafia" - which is tantamount to calling them revolutionaries or men who have any sense of honor whatever - tickles my funny bone. If Paulson is a revolutionary, then Thomas Paine was a fascist. These are the guys who wore the black hats and black leather vests in all those old Ronald Reagan movies. And he, the real-life "Greed is good!" Reagan, was the black-hattest of them all.

Best,
SOB.

No Risk, No Volatility, No Economy

So, I take it that for you, Ronald Reagan was right - greed really IS good.

Greed on the one hand leads to desperation on the other. Desperation leads to revolution.

I can think of better ways to spend my retirement than ducking bullets. The US has the greatest number of firearms per capita in the world. Unfortunately, too many people don't realize how bad things can get.

Best,
SOB.

Review of 9 1/2 Weeks (of the Market)

I was with you till the George Costanza paragraph. I would submit that the psychological atmosphere of this market is too heated, too frantic for "...drifting, sideways, mini range-bound..."

Plunging and surging will be with us for a while. As will the volatility. Until one side or the other, the shirts or the skins, throws in the towel. Then will humility and exhaustion reign.

SOB.

Trade Deficit Indeed Rises, Drags on Recovery

Let's not forget that US taxpayer dollars supported the federal agency that assisted US businesses to move abroad. At the moment, I can't recall the acronym, but like "Homeland Security," I'm sure it sounded all warm and fuzzy. Better than "the SS."

SOB.

The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Prediction 10 : Wrong. This will happen much sooner than you imagine because public outrage, enough of it murderous with frustration, is far greater than anyone within the beltway could possibly imagine.

SOB.

Grim Outlook for Preliminary GDP of -5%

How come you guys keep talking about "trickle down," when in reality money "cascades up" in this economy? Just take a look at how much has trickled down to the worker since 1960 & compare it to how much has cascaded up to the executve suite. In 1960 one wage-earner per family could support that family. Post 1980, it took, and still takes, two.

There are any number of studies on the subject, & you sound intelligent enough to read. Try it some time, it's habit-forming. You might start here: www.econ.barnard.colum.../~econhist/papers/tren...

If you're interested in the theories advanced for the steep increase in corporate pay since the eighties, try here: findarticles.com/p/art....

Or are you more interested in propagandizing your readers?

SOB.

21 Reasons to Be Bullish

I can identify w/ your last two short paragraphs, from "Even..." to "...near."

I'm often my own best contrary indicator.

Best,
SOB.

Indicator Update for January 5

I would like to know where you get the 20 day hi-low data. I must be looking in all the wrong places.

Best,
Seamus O'Bannion
seamusobannion@yahoo.c...

Vanishing Jobs and the Rising Bailout Costs

There isn't enough money in heaven or the other place to bail out the world economy. And the "leaders" who will purportedly get us out of this are the same lying, pocket-lining opportunists that got us into it. A few years ago, Paulson was one of the great & outspoken proponents of all the opaque & illiquid (now ruthlessly used) toilet paper that litters the world & that the world's taxpayers & poor are being forced to eat. Here in the 3rd world, food inflation is running rampant - from a buck & change per kilo for fruit to two bucks & change a week later, and all of it up hundreds of percent in the past few years. In 2001, when a buck bought 3.5 units of the local currency, one unit of that local currency - about 30 cents - bought 3 or 4 kilos of potatoes, yams, or yuca root. Today just one kilo of any one of those will set you back well more than that same thirty cents. And all of this in the midst of a slowdown in the economic growth rate of the country!

And check Obama's in-coming crew. Once past Volcker & Geithner and a few others, we run into the same professional political flacks that stood by Clinton in his glory days of re-tooling the democrat party to make a snugger fit with globalization & reaganomics.

And since business & government have been made partners again since Reagan, is it any wonder that no one - neither republican not democrat - is talking about helpiing municipalities? After all, most of THAT money would only go to teachers, police, & fireman.

One last point: I'm, astonished at all the anti-union talk. The American worker has lost ground versus inflation since the sixties, while the "geniuses" in the executive suites of this country have been making themselves billionaires, swallowing all the increased productivity that resulted from the new technologies - as if they invented them! Leo Bjong, an engineer (see "Who's Who in American Engineering" & "Who's Who Among Finnish Americans"), was one of the pioneers of aviation & his team at Bendix developed the automatic pilot which remained in use for years. Did Bjong & his team get rich? Of course not, the executives & shareholders did. And what did the workers get out of it? Squat!

And now all we hear is "socialism for the rich." Socialism for the rich is fascism. Did we forget so soon? Or is the word too bitter for the north american mouth?

Seamus O'Bannion.

Offshore Troubles, Domestic Fears

Still referring to "Joe Six-pack"? He has long since been reduced to "Joe Twelve-ounce Bottle."

Global Market Performance: Nowhere to Hide

Dear Hue101,

Your EWZ has a good chance of bouncing here, as it just tagged its 200 day moving average. Target might be the fifty day MA, about 10 pints up. Then probably down again. Big inflation in Brazil & rest of SA, with increasing interest rates - never propitious for stocks. EWZ has also been underperforming the DJ Wilshire 5000 since late may.

Best,
Seamus O'Bannion.

Investing for Retirement - Cramer's Mad Money (7/3/08)

Cramer's an entertainer making a bundle. There's a saying that if you say something loud enough, someone's bound to listen unless he's deaf.

SOB.