Gary Lucido

http://www.investingminds.com/social/blogs/gary
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44 Comments

    • Fri Jul 18th 08:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Historic Financial Collapse Underway?
      I completely agree with everything you say. What I don't understand is why the GSE's stock is going up right now. I've been buying puts.
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    • Sat Jul 12th 22:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Macroshares Oil Arbitrage Opportunity
      Well, I thought about this and decided it was absolutely OK. First, I'm disclosing my position. That puts everyone on notice that I might have something to gain from the article and, if they don't trust me, I could be simply pumping. The very fact that Seeking Alpha asks for disclosure indicates that they anticipate people will write about positions they hold. Frankly, I'm turned off when I read someone's analysis and they DON'T have a position. Like...why don't they put their money where their mouth is. Second, I think it has less credibility to write about something after the fact. I could simply make up a bunch of trades with the benefit of hindsight and look brilliant. Third, I'm looking to share the information so that others can profit too.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 8th 16:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Macroshares Oil Arbitrage Opportunity
      I just closed out the trade after only 6 days and pocketed $3,665:
      www.investingminds.com...
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 23rd 11:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Gold-Oil Ratio Approaches All-time Lows
      While interesting, this doesn't prove anything other than that the price of oil has gone up faster than the price of gold. This merely reflects that fact that the demand for oil has gone up faster than the demand for gold relative to the supplies. There is no reason to assume that the ratio should remain constant.
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 18th 19:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Manipulations Exposed
      If you want to get at the truth here you need to read T Stephens comments. They are much more intelligent than the main article (despite being written while he was on a phone call). Philip Davis engages in an awful lot of hysteria and shell games in his discussion. Manipulation of the natural gas and electricity markets are irrelevant to this discussion. His explanation of how prices are set is wrong, as T Stephens points out. And I haven't seen any of the Chicken Littles explain how speculators can affect the spot prices without taking physical delivery. Blaming this on speculation is a witch hunt.
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    • Tue Jun 17th 14:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Economics of Oil Futures Trading, Part I
      The Michael Greenberger report is pretty long so I skimmed through it. Looks like he makes a bunch of unsubstantiated claims that manipulation is occurring and he references other's claims but I'm not hearing anyone explain the mechanism by which speculators impact the spot price of oil without taking delivery.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 17th 10:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Economics of Oil Futures Trading, Part I
      Mark Perry is absolutely right. The bottom line is that unless speculators are taking physical delivery they can't impact the spot price. Seems pretty obvious to me. I make the case here:
      www.investingminds.com...
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 10th 08:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices and the "Bigger Fool" Theory
      The speculation story makes no sense: www.investingminds.com...

      Furthermore, you say " Our long-term oil forecast looking out 20 years is [for crude] to fall back to $75 a barrel, or some lower number.

      This sentence perfectly states why I think that current oil prices are now reflecting a bubble, or now even a bigger-fool type of market."

      There is not a necessary connection between the two. You can believe that oil today should be $135 and will be much lower in the future. It all depends upon your view of supply and demand over time. Oil is highly inelastic in the short run but very elastic in the long run.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 2nd 08:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Windfall Profits for Big Food: Where's The Outrage?
      I've been wondering exactly the same thing. Not only is there no outrage in congress but they just voted these guys another $307B of subsidies.
      View article »
    • Sat May 24th 00:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has Speculation Affected Oil Demand?
      James Hamilton and I are in pretty close agreement except I take a stronger stance against the idea that speculation is driving up prices. Speculation occurs in the futures market, which does not take oil off the table. Futures settle at the spot price, which is set by a physical exchange of product. The only way speculators could affect the spot price is to take delivery and put it in storage. Where is that happening? Show me the numbers!!!
      View article »
    • Wed May 21st 23:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Is Up Due to Fundamentals, Not Speculation
      Amen! Unfortunately, the politicians are not that smart and they are certainly not reasonable and they will do what is politically expedient and kill the markets and the price of oil will not go down. Just wait and see.
      View article »
    • Wed May 21st 21:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Is Up Due to Fundamentals, Not Speculation
      They don't need to sell a billion cars in one week to move the price a lot. All that needs to happen is for a fairly inelastic demand curve to shift against a fairly inelastic supply curve.
      View article »
    • Wed May 21st 21:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Is Up Due to Fundamentals, Not Speculation
      The demand is coming from China and India, not the US. US demand must come down. That's the whole point of my post.
      View article »
    • Wed May 21st 20:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Is Up Due to Fundamentals, Not Speculation
      First, demand does not have to double in order for prices to double. This is econ 101. Sorry.

      Second, I don't find any of these "news" sources credible. Give me specifics on how dabbling in the futures market would affect spot prices. And the fact that congress is holding investigations is meaningless. Those guys need econ 101 also.
      View article »
    • Wed May 21st 20:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Is Up Due to Fundamentals, Not Speculation
      I don't know where you are coming from. Speculators are not "buying up" oil. Check out my post.
      View article »
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