Gary Lucido

http://www.investingminds.com/social/blogs/gary
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44 Comments

    • Wed May 21st 19:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Is Up Due to Fundamentals, Not Speculation
      Funny, but I posted almost the exact same thesis in my own blog a few hours ago with a few more tidbits on why speculators can't be impacting the price:
      www.investingminds.com...
      I completely agree with this author except I don't think speculation is having much of an impact at all. I guess people are just looking for someone to blame. I don't know how Harus can say demand is down.
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 16th 18:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      D-Day for the MacroShares Crude Oil ETFs
      I cover the behavior of these shares here in case you are interested. The short answer is that the gains and losses of the pair are capped once oil reaches 120. www.investingminds.com...
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 11th 13:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Yahoo is in Trouble
      Yeah, I was waiting for someone to ask why I owned it. Should have explained. I sold it when the MSFT offer came out then bought it back when Yahoo turned them down. I do think the company could be worth more than MSFT is offering, but not with these yahoos running the show. I'm hoping someone comes in with a better offer.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 6th 08:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Real Solution to the Energy Problem
      When energy costs get high enough people will do what makes sense. But the last thing we need is for the government to try to decide what makes sense. Their track record is pretty poor. Look at the ethanol subsidies. Government can't be trusted to pick winners and losers in this field. When they try to micromanage the economy you end up with Cuba, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe.
      View article »
    • Sun Mar 30th 18:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Spanish Arbitrage Opportunity
      I don't think the distributions have anything to do with it. Distributions just give back your money to you and you get taxed on it. I think it's just because people are not aware of the ETF alternative. The premium eventually goes away.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 18th 09:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Spanish Arbitrage Opportunity
      In case you are interested, I recently unwound this arbitrage and made a nice little profit. The details are here:
      www.investingminds.com...
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 25th 19:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      MacroShares Oil Funds Offer Arbitrage Opportunity
      To answer bcr, it is not convertible into oil futures. The answers to the rest of his questions are covered here: www.investingminds.com...
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 18th 06:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Spanish Arbitrage Opportunity
      I use Fidelity. There are three possible scenarios:
      1) Shares show up as available
      2) Shares are available but Fidelity has to release them first
      3) Fidelity has to borrow them for you and will charge you interest.
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 1st 15:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Search For Yield
      There are some opportunities out there with some of the struggling institutions. They are offering higher yields to attract depositors and, of course, the government will bail you out if they go under. Unfortunately, it's often not worth the effort to pursue these as I found out. I got in on a 5.25% CD with Countrywide but you would not believe the hell I went through to make it happen. You can read the story here if you are interested:
      www.investingminds.com...
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 10th 09:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Does Market Timing Actually Work?
      The very point of the article is that analyses like "missing the best days" are in fact flawed and that it is rational to adjust one's asset allocation based upon valuations.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 8th 08:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Yuan Takes Biggest One-Day Loss vs. Dollar in Two Years
      Found this post where The Financial Whiz shows how you can actually profit from a carry trade with the Yuan, taking advantage of the fact that the Chinese are controlling it's appreciation.
      www.investingminds.com...
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 7th 08:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Markets Have Spoken: They Say 'Bear'
      Well, I don't buy all the "cycle" arguments but I do agree with the basic premise that we are in a bear market. It should be no surprise that the market is falling and you should be prepared for it to fall further. There is a rather compelling case made by Robert Shiller, and supported by some really interesting data, that the market is tremendously overvalued. On a trailing earnings basis the P/E of the market doesn't look that bad but we have been in an earnings bubble. So it's a lot worse than people think.

      I summarize some of the arguments in an article here:
      www.investingminds.com.../
      which makes the case for market timing. Though I'm not a market timer in the sense of moving 100% in and out of the market I do think it makes sense to modify your asset allocation based upon valuation.
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 17th 07:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Kill These ETFs, Now
      I did a pretty thorough analysis of this ETF. You can see it here: www.investingminds.com...

      My point is that if you want to be short oil then simply short the USO. It will make you a lot more money.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 14th 23:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The World's Worst ETF
      We found Greg's post thanks to your post and I went off and researched the situation pretty thoroughly. I'm convinced that there is an opportunity to make some money here so I traded on it. My analysis is here:www.investingminds.com...
      View article »
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