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Eric Peterson

Eric Peterson
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  • Get Ready To Buy Natural Gas [View article]
    At the moment, extremely little: January NG 3.600, March NG 3.613. that's about one third of one percent in two months. Negligible. Leverage decay on UGAZ is much greater in two months.
    Dec 3 04:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RBS Rolls Out 5 Rogers Enhanced Commodity ETNs [View article]
    I clicked on the links to all 5 of these funds, and they all have about $4 million in assets. Is this the seed money by the issuers? Too much of a coincidence if it's new investor money, since these funds only started two weeks ago, why would the amount of assets be almost exactly the same in every fund?
    Dec 2 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal Cliff Or A Message From Dr. Copper? [View article]
    The article seems to imply that copper predicts the stock market. To me, it just looks like they are highly correlated. Copper bottoms and stocks bottom at the same time. No predictive value.
    Dec 2 05:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Sentiment Jumps To 3-Month High [View article]
    Yes, Bespoke just seems to present data, nicely, but no analysis. Such as what has been the performance of the SP500 in the weeks or months after such a rise in sentiment?
    Dec 2 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV And ZIV Are Huge Success Stories 2 Years After Launching [View article]
    quovadis123, I've seen you post this before, and I don't understand what you are saying. What do you mean by "he will pay you" and "UVXY should have paid me $540" and "It only paid me $235", etc?

    You buy UVXY and you sell UVXY. Your profit or loss is the difference in price. You don't get "paid" anything. There are no dividends or payouts, only your entry and exit prices, which YOU decide when to enter and exit.
    Dec 1 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Trading Options Uses Probabilities To Your Advantage [View article]
    And volatility is even more key. Only sell when volatility is high (or at least higher than the previous few days or weeks).
    Dec 1 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modern Portfolio Theory 2.0 - The Most Diversified Portfolio [View article]
    Right. In a nutshell, picking things that go up is more important than picking the best percentages for allocation among the things.
    Dec 1 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Near-Term Futures In Lockstep With The VIX: Comparing Volatility Hedges [View article]
    Scott, can I ask why you prefer to be short VXX rather than long XIV (or SVXY)?

    In case of a crash in the market, VXX could much more than double, but XIV will never go below zero. Seems safer to be long XIV?
    Dec 1 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Short-Term Approach Has Generated Substantial Gains In S&P 500 Stock Index Trading Products [View article]
    Thanks for the informative replies! Yes, I agree very much with your statement "My approach is to add different conceptually diverse approaches together to smooth return." I already trade a number of very diverse strategies using futures contracts and futures options in a number of different commodities. I'm always on the outlook to add other strategies which might be uncorrelated with what I'm already doing, and this might be one of them.
    Dec 1 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Rankings Stay Neutral While Charts Take A Bullish Turn [View article]
    Do you have any past performance stats for your Outlook Score that you can give us in a comment?

    For example, the sector with the highest Outlook score, how has it done compared with the SP500 for the following month? How far back do you have real-time Outlook Scores (not backtested)?
    Dec 1 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Sector Periodic Table Of Returns 2001 To 2011 [View article]
    "Except in 2001, 2002 and in 2008, the energy sector yielded strong returns underscoring the importance of oil and other related sectors in the U.S."

    Also showing that energy doesn't provide diversification from the general stock market, because the bad years for energy were also the bad years for the SP500.
    Dec 1 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Short-Term Approach Has Generated Substantial Gains In S&P 500 Stock Index Trading Products [View article]
    A couple other questions (so many questions because it's a very interesting article!):

    In the first table, "maximum drawdown" for "all days", which is essentially buy-and-hold an E-mini SP500 futures contract, shows $31,875. But from the peak close in 2007 to lowest close in 2009, the drop was more than 800 points, which is more than $40,000. This raises some doubts about the correctness of the maximum drawdown calculations.

    In the second table "Large Loss" is the largest single-day loss, or the maximum drawdown? I would hate to trade a system that has a largest loss (whichever it is) of over $4,000 and an average profit per trade of only $124.
    Dec 1 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Short-Term Approach Has Generated Substantial Gains In S&P 500 Stock Index Trading Products [View article]
    Article should mention it's E-mini SP500 futures at $50 per point, not SP500 futures which are $250 per point. You mentioned that in the comments, but not the article.

    What about Globex trading from 6pm ET? Why wait until the open the next day at 9:30am ET? How would the system work if the "open" was defined as 6pm ET? Sometimes there are decent moves in the futures overnight and in the morning before regular trading hours.

    And when you say "bottom 20% of the day's range", is that the range only from 9:30am to 4pm, or is it the range for the 22 hours and 15 minutes from 6pm to 4:15pm? If it's only the "regular trading hours", how do you get that range from your quote vendor, which usually reports highs and lows for the whole session starting at 6pm?

    Futures trade 23 hours and 15 minutes each day (6pm to 4:15pm and 4:30pm to 5:30pm), so "open" and "close" and "day's range" can be defined in a number of ways.
    Dec 1 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready To Buy Natural Gas [View article]
    Regarding UGAZ, the 3x leveraged fund:

    Watch out for "leverage decay", which means if you buy a leveraged fund, hold it for a period of more than a few days, and sell it when the underlying (natural gas) is at the same price as your entry, you are guaranteed to lose money. In my opinion, any article mentioning a leveraged fund, especially 3x, need to mention leverage decay, or its being negligent.

    These 3x funds are meant to be held for only a few days because of this.

    if you want leverage, better to buy a futures contract. There's no leverage decay: If you enter and exit with natural gas at the same prices, you lose nothing. Not so with UGAZ!
    Dec 1 06:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Yen Doomed? [View article]
    Commitment of Traders and Public Opinion show the most extreme negative sentiment towards the Yen in years (small traders are shortest in years, large commercials are long). So I find it hard to see the Yen decline a lot from here and prove all the small traders correct, at least in the short term of the next few months.
    Dec 1 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
264 Comments
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