Windwood Trader

It's Still Early Days for the TBT

I can envision your expectation that the 10 year Treasuries must eventually move to 6 at least but is TBT the right vehicle? Buying too early means sitting on a decaying asset.

While we all wait for the inevitable, the deterioration of TBT through continual derivative premium saps the value of the holder and enriches the originator of the ETF. There are no economies of scale working for us here- Time is definitely the enemy of the TBT holder. By the time we cash out we will be poorer.