Windwood Trader

4 Ways to Protect Your Capital (Think Debt and Bond ETFs)

We may be deflationary but the fact that the $US printing presses are going full bore shows me that an investment in comparatively stable foreign debt will be basically a USD short with good income to boot.


On Oct 01 08:16 AM buyitcheap wrote:

> If we are truly deflationary, wouldn't owning zeroes, possibly municipal
> issues, make a lot of sense?

World Financial Markets in Eight Charts, for Week of Sept. 28

The S&P is at historical highs, P/E wise. The institutional managers are not going to be burned again by watching others run for the exits while they wait for the next rise. The US indexes will continue, at best to tread water while the emerging markets try to valiantly put on a good show without the back-up of the core investors.

Keep your eye on earnings and P/E ratios. Should the picture improve the investing public should become more sanguine- At least in the short term. The magic "Baby Boomer" brigade will be absent, however not risking any more to chance as they currently sit with over half their retirement assets in nether-land and trusting nothing they can't see.

Would you put your money in this market?

It's Still Early Days for the TBT

I can envision your expectation that the 10 year Treasuries must eventually move to 6 at least but is TBT the right vehicle? Buying too early means sitting on a decaying asset.

While we all wait for the inevitable, the deterioration of TBT through continual derivative premium saps the value of the holder and enriches the originator of the ETF. There are no economies of scale working for us here- Time is definitely the enemy of the TBT holder. By the time we cash out we will be poorer.

Price Breadth Suggests that Financial ETF Exuberance May Be Short-Lived

Gary's analysis rings true. Financial stocks were driven up simply because the artificial valuations created a financial base that didn't exist. When it came to pony up they couldn't, sub-primes took them South since the lenders couldn't pay and the greedy goobers went crying for Uncle Sap to come to the rescue. The rating agencies were pressured to create ficticious values and make make the sow's ear to look like a silk purse. I doubt that there will be a repeat of that fiasco.

Commodities eventually move to the levels market economies set by supply and demand and the Chinese currently spot value and opportunity where it exists. They are aware of their needs, have the capital to stockpile the basic stuff and make infrastructure capabilities and overseas investments to assure a future supply.

You can do that if the politicians hadn't spent the last decade squandering their country's future like in some countries.

China ADRs: Even Better Than the Real Thing

If non-Chinese cannot trade in securities with a China base unless they are American Depository Receipts is it correct to assume that Chinese nationals cannot buy ADRs?

If this is indeed the case then there are two classes of investor trading virtually different securities. They would have to behave differently.

Are Strategists Now Bearish for the Rest of the Year?

The rise and fall of the S&P target is merely a function of the PE ratio applied to the index. If earnings are expected to increase rather than continue to fall as is what's generally happening then the target will naturally rise. The historical ratio is the fuel for this engine's thought processes.

3 Reasons Emerging Asia ETF Should Be on Your Buy List

I believe that GMF as a growth ETF would not exhibit the type of data in that you would say in an EAFE index type fund.

Emerging countries do for the most part have emerging companies without a lot of value but with a great future.

The Earnings Season Party Ends

I believe that the tea leaves could be read without a lot of difficulty. The one shot tax rebate last year caused a spike in buying (and a little credit card debt reduction) but it only lasted a month or two. The "clunker" program gets a few new cars off the lot but does nothing for the systemic problem- Too much leverage- Not enough capital- The consumer everyone is waiting for to bring home the bacon is the wisest of all- Or maybe most fearful. Hunkering down isn't a bad idea right now.

Let the beached whale die its death and lets get on with whatever is reality. The asset base compared to what finance is available out there will be impossible to reconcile. Assets that aren't necessary any more will go unpurchased or sold at distress prices. Banks are, and should be afraid to lend money for home mortgages knowing in their heart of hearts that home values are already underwater before they take on a new mortgage. The second home, the Beemer as the 3rd car, the Med cruise are all on the block- The whole world economy save a few hardliners became a humongous Ponzi scheme that won't get fixed overnight. Sorry, kids- No instant gratification this time. School of hard knocks here we come.

Fed Manipulation: Adding to the Bloggers' Case

The issuing of debt and the virtual simultaneous purchase by the feds is nothing more that spinning the wheels on the printing press to force interest rates down by devaluing the US$. The dealers and financial vehicle firms make money on the spreads- We pay the eventual price.

The process won't really create inflation until we, the public need to buy something made offshore- Things like oil, manufactured goods, clothing, autos and such.

Can you say 'screwed once again?'

What Did New York Fed Chief William Dudley Actually Say About Monetary Policy?

I think that is known as "de-leveraging."


On Jul 31 10:56 AM TxTim wrote:

> Debt conversion to equity is a good start. However, when systemic
> risk is identified pure equity should be increased comensurately.
> This would keep some of the regulatory complexity out of the picture
> and leave what should remain...IE a free market system that says,
> "you screw up, you lose." The systemic regulators first order of
> business should be to impose this equity requirement and take the
> attitude, "hey you can get as big, inefficient and stupid as you
> want, you just have to have the equity to do it." If the equity can't
> be ponied up then break 'em up, plain and simple.

What Did New York Fed Chief William Dudley Actually Say About Monetary Policy?

"Better press corps" you say? Mark Twain said it better- "If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed.

If you DO read the newspaper you are misinformed!"

Larry Summers lashes out at TARP-recipient banks who aren't doing enough to reduce foreclosures: "The profits they’re enjoying are in part a reflection of the commitment government and the broader society have made to the financial system that has enabled them to enjoy those profits."

Oh, come on- The fat cats at the financials said they would play fair and do their part to reduce foreclosures.

Do you mean to tell me that they may have said that just to get bailed out?

How cynical of you.

Investors Embrace Ex-U.S. ETFs

While the total blame for the financial crisis cannot by laid at the feet of the US, the fact that the financial sector was manipulated solely to benefit the FAT CATS at the helms of the vastly over-leveraged giant US financial firms should not be ignored. The US rating agencies were pressured by the same goobers to rate total junk up to investment grade status.

The bonus issues at many of the banking firms is only a scratch on the surface of the horrendous mis-deeds perpetrated on the investing public, pension funds and other nations that purchased near worthless securities for their funding needs.

That is why the US is getting picked on.


On Jul 16 08:33 AM Tony Petroski wrote:

> "Ex-American" funds have an ideological feel to them that don't normally
> coincide with good investing. How are funds that are "extremely
> well diversified" with holdings over 2000 supposed to do well with
> the likes of the U.K., Japan, and so on. Why pick on the U.S.?
> How about an "Ex G-8 Fund."

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I'll bet they have cow flatulence on Mars as well.


On Jul 09 09:19 AM David Fry wrote:

> I'll go with Charles Krauthammer on this one who states: "I'm a global
> warming agnostic. It's obvious polluting the atmosphere causes all
> manner of problems. But there may be other causes and unless every
> country is on board a unilateral decision is economic suicide".<br/>
>
> Then there's BMO's Donald Coxe (an old commodity veteran) who argues
> that sun spots have a major effect on climate. In the last 18 months
> there has been little sun spot activity which has caused cooling--er,
> maybe even on Mars (snicker).

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

You can tell when politicians and tv celebrities lie- When their lips move.

You, my dear public will be told whatever it is that equates to more SOMA just to keep you from tearing down the walls.