Windwood Trader's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/120731/comments http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-19052691 19052691 I believe that you have discerned the solution-
Also possible, Chief o Staff-
Some things never change but are usually hard to predict. Political cannon fodder, I suppose.

WT]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 21:09:33 -0400 I believe that you have discerned the solution-
Also possible, Chief o Staff-
Some things never change but are usually hard to predict. Political cannon fodder, I suppose.

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-19050871 19050871 Increased at an annual rate of 4.04 for the thirteen weeks ended 6 May, 2013.

It is getting lower.

WT]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 20:20:31 -0400 Increased at an annual rate of 4.04 for the thirteen weeks ended 6 May, 2013.

It is getting lower.

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1796411-swine-flu-and-medical-news-concentrator-april-25-2013-to?source=feed#comment-19050511 19050511 Mon, 20 May 2013 20:12:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-19050471 19050471 I believe you would have to ask Mr. Dimon or Mr Blankfein if they were done with the manipulations.]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 20:10:27 -0400 I believe you would have to ask Mr. Dimon or Mr Blankfein if they were done with the manipulations.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-19050411 19050411 Mon, 20 May 2013 20:07:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-19050371 19050371 Mon, 20 May 2013 20:06:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-19050251 19050251 Mon, 20 May 2013 20:02:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427701/comments?source=feed#comment-19024521 19024521
I have gone to the sheet you referenced in the link and I see from Feb 4 to May 6 the change appears to be 3.3%. I note however that this data is seasonally adjusted. I am trying to determine if I am using the correct data table or should I use the NOT seasonally adjusted data and do my own calculation since I see no Percent Change table for NOT seasonally adjusted data.

Windwood Trader]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 09:43:55 -0400
I have gone to the sheet you referenced in the link and I see from Feb 4 to May 6 the change appears to be 3.3%. I note however that this data is seasonally adjusted. I am trying to determine if I am using the correct data table or should I use the NOT seasonally adjusted data and do my own calculation since I see no Percent Change table for NOT seasonally adjusted data.

Windwood Trader]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18997661 18997661
His website is a concentration of probably most of his Alpha postings.

http://bit.ly/11P1x0b

Windwood Trader]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 12:04:11 -0400
His website is a concentration of probably most of his Alpha postings.

http://bit.ly/11P1x0b

Windwood Trader]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18961971 18961971
Springer got me interested in Sri Lanka. They look to be on track for 15-20% per year growth the next five or so.- I'm opening a Ceylon Bank account- Don't think you have to any more but it makes life easier to invest there.

Thailand- busy now, Maybe Vietnam and Singapore also- They are attracting investors (Singapore may be emerging not frontier).
I haven't looked at Africa with the exception of So. Africa's gold miners- Kloof for one.

WT]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 16:48:43 -0400
Springer got me interested in Sri Lanka. They look to be on track for 15-20% per year growth the next five or so.- I'm opening a Ceylon Bank account- Don't think you have to any more but it makes life easier to invest there.

Thailand- busy now, Maybe Vietnam and Singapore also- They are attracting investors (Singapore may be emerging not frontier).
I haven't looked at Africa with the exception of So. Africa's gold miners- Kloof for one.

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18958131 18958131 Thanks-

This piece from that article says a lot:

"Honestly, we don't have enough physical gold to supply to the Chinese. I just heard one Hong Kong party is quoting premiums at $6. This is mad," said a dealer in Singapore.

Gold was little changed at $1,392.21 an ounce after falling for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, its longest daily losing streak since January 2011, lifting premiums in Singapore to $3.50 an ounce."

Interesting in that a sponsored ad right next to the article quoted US Gold at $1,364, down 1.6%.

Hey-
Anybody interested in getting a wad of US Gold over to China? Lets see, $1392 minus 1364= $28 per oz spread. If we put 3 or four tonnes (2200 pounds) together we could make a few bucks.
Do you think Bejing would mind?

WT]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 15:28:10 -0400 Thanks-

This piece from that article says a lot:

"Honestly, we don't have enough physical gold to supply to the Chinese. I just heard one Hong Kong party is quoting premiums at $6. This is mad," said a dealer in Singapore.

Gold was little changed at $1,392.21 an ounce after falling for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, its longest daily losing streak since January 2011, lifting premiums in Singapore to $3.50 an ounce."

Interesting in that a sponsored ad right next to the article quoted US Gold at $1,364, down 1.6%.

Hey-
Anybody interested in getting a wad of US Gold over to China? Lets see, $1392 minus 1364= $28 per oz spread. If we put 3 or four tonnes (2200 pounds) together we could make a few bucks.
Do you think Bejing would mind?

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18946051 18946051
SLAINTE!]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 11:33:03 -0400
SLAINTE!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18939011 18939011 Fri, 17 May 2013 09:17:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18918821 18918821
Windwood Trader]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 17:39:09 -0400
Windwood Trader]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18918521 18918521
Looks to me like the Land of the Rising Sun may be one of the better plays out there. They saw that our BB program didn't have any negative effect on stocks so I think theirs is an attractive market as well, as long as their "elephant in the room" neighbor doesn't get too bothersome.

I do believe that posturing will quiet down. No reason that I can see for escalation.

WT]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 17:35:17 -0400
Looks to me like the Land of the Rising Sun may be one of the better plays out there. They saw that our BB program didn't have any negative effect on stocks so I think theirs is an attractive market as well, as long as their "elephant in the room" neighbor doesn't get too bothersome.

I do believe that posturing will quiet down. No reason that I can see for escalation.

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18905141 18905141
No matter what- NO MORE RUM!]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 13:16:07 -0400
No matter what- NO MORE RUM!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18900851 18900851 Thanks for the link(s).
It's clear that a lot of more cost-to-produce miners will stop digging, at least for gold as the primary product. What I can't figure is why the price has not solidified with all the demand for the stuff, or is that simply civilian demand and not heavy enough to move the price?

Or, is there just simply more supply that can be absorbed?

WT]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 11:58:37 -0400 Thanks for the link(s).
It's clear that a lot of more cost-to-produce miners will stop digging, at least for gold as the primary product. What I can't figure is why the price has not solidified with all the demand for the stuff, or is that simply civilian demand and not heavy enough to move the price?

Or, is there just simply more supply that can be absorbed?

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18900011 18900011
Another alternative discussed is the splitting of the Eurozone, North/South which sounds a bit fuzzy but may be possible. Germany has the most skin in the game already and is reluctant to do more.

Comparisons are made to Alexander Hamilton and the major US financial catastrophe of the early 1800s, also to Japan's bank collapse of 1997 and the following 25 years of stagnation.

A long but very interesting debate with a lot of insight-

http://bit.ly/13zeaKp

Windwood Trader]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 11:43:53 -0400
Another alternative discussed is the splitting of the Eurozone, North/South which sounds a bit fuzzy but may be possible. Germany has the most skin in the game already and is reluctant to do more.

Comparisons are made to Alexander Hamilton and the major US financial catastrophe of the early 1800s, also to Japan's bank collapse of 1997 and the following 25 years of stagnation.

A long but very interesting debate with a lot of insight-

http://bit.ly/13zeaKp

Windwood Trader]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18895551 18895551
I'm in the hunt for a well run Frontier Market MUTUAL fund as I feel any Frontier equity collection needs to be selectively monitored and don't feel an ETF will be able to do that. I will pay the extra fees to accomplish that.
Fidelity already has FSEAX - Emerging Asia, but I hear that Templeton has a new frontier fund just starting up.

WT]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 10:11:44 -0400
I'm in the hunt for a well run Frontier Market MUTUAL fund as I feel any Frontier equity collection needs to be selectively monitored and don't feel an ETF will be able to do that. I will pay the extra fees to accomplish that.
Fidelity already has FSEAX - Emerging Asia, but I hear that Templeton has a new frontier fund just starting up.

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18894911 18894911
I went into $SCJ all cap index right after the Japanese announced their BB look alike program.

Up 6% so far. I will be adding to it.

Windwood Trader]]> Thu, 16 May 2013 10:01:54 -0400
I went into $SCJ all cap index right after the Japanese announced their BB look alike program.

Up 6% so far. I will be adding to it.

Windwood Trader]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18873801 18873801
Its been a long time since I read the book but I do remember some- in my humble opinion, standout issues.

- Pretty easy to purchase anything you can outside the country and bring it back with you if it's portable. Maybe all those IRS agents will become customs officers though.

- Avoid sales tax through the age old barter system. You need a rug? I need a washer/dryer. There are websites that will arrange a barter arrangement for a small fee. Definite growth industry. Craigslist could get involved. No tax on used stuff? How used does it need to be.

Gray Markets abound.

- Underground economies would grow, not diminish. People with access would purchase their food from various forms of vendors, farms, co-ops maybe once again probably looking to barter. EBAY would be ten times bigger than Apple and Google put together.

- Prebates- The biggest welfare program ever dreamed up. The whole country gets a check every month? Just think of what that bureaucratic boondoggle is going to cost. Might be a chance at abuse and incompetence as well, I believe.

- Charitable organizations, religious organizations and I suppose other non-profits would not have to pay the tax.

I lived in an area once where every house in a particular sub-division was declared to be a place of worship and a school for the neighborhood. Result? No property taxes- No income taxes for the residents since they were all religious scholars living for the community. Exemption from the tax as a religious entity. The kids in these houses still attended the schools outside the community as well.
I can see a boom in this type of arrangement.

The first thing I though of after reading the book several years ago was that it was really designed to benefit the top brackets income people. And if it was- then everyone below that level would be making up the difference. The big boys keep the money in Europe and the Caribbean where they can have their palaces and buy their corporate jets and yachts.

The next thing I thought about was the transition, but that was really talked to death and important but not something I spent a lot of time on- We'll just hope the government gets it right.

There are a litany of abuses and inefficiencies in our current tax system. Reform? Somebody benefits- Someone else pays the bill. Been that way since the beginning. The way it works now is the ones that control the system benefit the most. I predict that it would be the same beneficiaries under the Fair Tax, good intentions by some notwithstanding.

WT]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 19:24:12 -0400
Its been a long time since I read the book but I do remember some- in my humble opinion, standout issues.

- Pretty easy to purchase anything you can outside the country and bring it back with you if it's portable. Maybe all those IRS agents will become customs officers though.

- Avoid sales tax through the age old barter system. You need a rug? I need a washer/dryer. There are websites that will arrange a barter arrangement for a small fee. Definite growth industry. Craigslist could get involved. No tax on used stuff? How used does it need to be.

Gray Markets abound.

- Underground economies would grow, not diminish. People with access would purchase their food from various forms of vendors, farms, co-ops maybe once again probably looking to barter. EBAY would be ten times bigger than Apple and Google put together.

- Prebates- The biggest welfare program ever dreamed up. The whole country gets a check every month? Just think of what that bureaucratic boondoggle is going to cost. Might be a chance at abuse and incompetence as well, I believe.

- Charitable organizations, religious organizations and I suppose other non-profits would not have to pay the tax.

I lived in an area once where every house in a particular sub-division was declared to be a place of worship and a school for the neighborhood. Result? No property taxes- No income taxes for the residents since they were all religious scholars living for the community. Exemption from the tax as a religious entity. The kids in these houses still attended the schools outside the community as well.
I can see a boom in this type of arrangement.

The first thing I though of after reading the book several years ago was that it was really designed to benefit the top brackets income people. And if it was- then everyone below that level would be making up the difference. The big boys keep the money in Europe and the Caribbean where they can have their palaces and buy their corporate jets and yachts.

The next thing I thought about was the transition, but that was really talked to death and important but not something I spent a lot of time on- We'll just hope the government gets it right.

There are a litany of abuses and inefficiencies in our current tax system. Reform? Somebody benefits- Someone else pays the bill. Been that way since the beginning. The way it works now is the ones that control the system benefit the most. I predict that it would be the same beneficiaries under the Fair Tax, good intentions by some notwithstanding.

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18867671 18867671
I'm with you-

I read the book and saw how it would create a wad of loopholes that anyone with a $300k or over income could work to their advantage- no problemo, man- a few benefit a whole lot pay the price.

Having said that I DO believe that our selectively beneficial "systems" tax or otherwise is no way near fair- From ridiculous farm subsidies to bail-out corporate welfare to oil depletion allowances to TBTF banks. I don't think the founding fathers were thinking that way.

WT]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 16:51:46 -0400
I'm with you-

I read the book and saw how it would create a wad of loopholes that anyone with a $300k or over income could work to their advantage- no problemo, man- a few benefit a whole lot pay the price.

Having said that I DO believe that our selectively beneficial "systems" tax or otherwise is no way near fair- From ridiculous farm subsidies to bail-out corporate welfare to oil depletion allowances to TBTF banks. I don't think the founding fathers were thinking that way.

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18861911 18861911
PM for you.

WT]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 15:09:16 -0400
PM for you.

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18861221 18861221
I searched a bit and finally contacted S&P and asked them for what the average current price of the components is.

I went all through their web sites and found out that the capitalization of the 500 components totals $15,857,000,000,000.47.

I'll get back to you when they respond.

WT]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 14:55:09 -0400
I searched a bit and finally contacted S&P and asked them for what the average current price of the components is.

I went all through their web sites and found out that the capitalization of the 500 components totals $15,857,000,000,000.47.

I'll get back to you when they respond.

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18847011 18847011
Malaysia is an emerging market country. Its debt (sovereign) is currently rated "A".
I don't believe either Vietnam nor Mongolia qualify as emerging market countries by most investment firms- they are mostly considered "Frontier countries". I would consider "frontier countries" as very risky indeed.

Emerging debt mutual funds and ETFs on average have much lower betas than a direct investment in a single country's debt instruments, sovereign or corporate.
Mutual funds like Fidelity's FNMIX, rated 4 stars by Morningstar and PIMCO's PEMDX rated 3 stars, BlackRock Emerging Debt portfolio also 3 stars all have betas at 1.00 or lower, Sharpe ratios above 1.55 and outperform the Barclay's bond index by 15-20% over 3 years. That to me is getting a lot of return for reasonable risk.

Windwood Trader]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 10:11:39 -0400
Malaysia is an emerging market country. Its debt (sovereign) is currently rated "A".
I don't believe either Vietnam nor Mongolia qualify as emerging market countries by most investment firms- they are mostly considered "Frontier countries". I would consider "frontier countries" as very risky indeed.

Emerging debt mutual funds and ETFs on average have much lower betas than a direct investment in a single country's debt instruments, sovereign or corporate.
Mutual funds like Fidelity's FNMIX, rated 4 stars by Morningstar and PIMCO's PEMDX rated 3 stars, BlackRock Emerging Debt portfolio also 3 stars all have betas at 1.00 or lower, Sharpe ratios above 1.55 and outperform the Barclay's bond index by 15-20% over 3 years. That to me is getting a lot of return for reasonable risk.

Windwood Trader]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18806091 18806091
I wasn't sure about that Salient group.

$PSE is an LP apparently not an MLP. I am out of the stock on a big pop but feel there may be more to the story.

Anything from WF on them?

WT]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 09:50:37 -0400
I wasn't sure about that Salient group.

$PSE is an LP apparently not an MLP. I am out of the stock on a big pop but feel there may be more to the story.

Anything from WF on them?

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18782901 18782901 Pimco's $PEMDX has been in my portfolio for a while. The emerging market group has had to prove themselves while the big overseas borrowers have borrowed on their AAA reputations.

Result? I believe EM debt has better returns and may be a lot safer.

Windwood Trader]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 17:16:40 -0400 Pimco's $PEMDX has been in my portfolio for a while. The emerging market group has had to prove themselves while the big overseas borrowers have borrowed on their AAA reputations.

Result? I believe EM debt has better returns and may be a lot safer.

Windwood Trader]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18782121 18782121
$SMAPX is a Salient MLP that I find interesting, $SMLPX is another-

Maya-

Can you give WF's take on it?

Thanks, WT]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 17:04:34 -0400
$SMAPX is a Salient MLP that I find interesting, $SMLPX is another-

Maya-

Can you give WF's take on it?

Thanks, WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18733461 18733461
Might this not be a good time to do another "Hedge Shack?"

I still have my $PSEC from the 2011 Hedge Shack, thank you very much!

WT]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 11:43:35 -0400
Might this not be a good time to do another "Hedge Shack?"

I still have my $PSEC from the 2011 Hedge Shack, thank you very much!

WT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/283977-focalpoint-analytics/1772021-stability-of-the-european-union-19-april-18-2013-to?source=feed#comment-18732741 18732741
Now I have to figure out the best way for me to obtain some safer currency- I'm sure there are options like saving accounts, sovereign notes and even just currency.

WT]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 11:24:48 -0400
Now I have to figure out the best way for me to obtain some safer currency- I'm sure there are options like saving accounts, sovereign notes and even just currency.

WT]]>