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Windwood Trader

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  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Dennis Hartman on MSNBC this afternoon said that oil may have bottomed. When challenged about prior statements he said possibly $40-$45 would be the bottom. Also when asked said he wasn't buying yet- oil had to reach a neutral zone first.

    Sounded to me like he was covering all the bases.

    WT
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Mark-

    Thanks for your read on commodities. I agree with most.

    I am not at all sure that oil is in the same pasture as the other critters though. The drop in oil was intentionally engineered by the Sauds ostensibly to drive out or at least reduce the competition from US oil shale and fracking. The Sauds could just as easily jack up the price when they feel the time is right, maybe when the production levels from the alternatives drop off in possibly a couple of years. True, that may be more than a few years but it does depend to a certain extent on the dynamics of the Saud economy as well.

    China has been the big economic sponge for commodities- all commodities and has satisfied its appetite for the stockpiles it now has will meet their needs for a long time. Bad news for countries like Brazil, Australia and Canada as well as for the shipping business.

    WT
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Mercy got me interested In (MWA) quite a while back- Still looks like one of those slow but sure winners, especially with the condition of our currently dismal infrastructure.

    WT
    Mar 22, 2015. 11:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Some seem to think that there is a formula for setting mortgage rates- Not so. Secondary entities like Fanny and Freddy establish the market for mortgages.


    >>>
    "How do lenders set your mortgage rate? Well, actually they don't.

    While mortgage lenders control who gets approved for a loan and on what terms, actual mortgage interest rates are largely determined on the secondary market, where mortgages are bought and sold.
    Meet Fannie and Freddie
    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two large and influential mortgage investors, were founded by the government decades ago to help bring efficiency to the lending process. They and other mortgage investors buy loans that lenders make and either hold them in portfolio or bundle them with other loans into mortgage-backed securities. These are sold to Wall Street, mutual funds and other financial investors, which trade them much the same as Treasury securities and bonds.

    It is these financial investors in the secondary market, not mortgage lenders and brokers, that collectively determine the interest rate of your mortgage loan."

    <<<

    http://bit.ly/1GGKMDY

    >>>
    From:Goodmortgage.com:
    "They change each day based on the market. Mortgage rates most closely follow the 10 Year Treasury Bond, but this is not an exact science. This is only used as a benchmark. As bond prices go down, the yield (the rate) goes up. Mortgage rates in the secondary market must then also rise, or all investors would put their money in the bond market, as opposed to mortgages."
    <<<

    http://bit.ly/1GGKMUf

    Looks like Fanny and Freddy are the real setters-
    Somebody with the corner office picks a number and says "Let's go with this."

    No convoluted formula here folks, just move along-

    WT
    Mar 22, 2015. 11:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    >HTL-

    "MHO and I realize I wasted the bits on this .."

    No waste- Excellent commentary- Thanks.

    WT
    Mar 22, 2015. 11:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Week Ahead In FX: March 23-27 PMIs And CPIs To Dictate FX Pace [View article]
    Maybe I missed something.
    Is the author just posting someone else’s work or is some of what is presented here his?

    WT
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Thanks, Maya-

    Re:(W)

    Being out by Friday may be a good plan, maybe Wednesday-
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    >Mark-

    Thanks for the data info on the outlook. This one was the metric I found quite revealing:

    >>>>>
    For Q1 2015, 83 companies have issued negative EPS
    guidance and 16 companies
    have issued positive EPS guidance.
    >>>>>

    Wow- 83 negative vs 16 positive-

    No recession coming?
    Mar 21, 2015. 03:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Country ETF performance

    http://bit.ly/1xLn04s

    WT
    Mar 21, 2015. 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    >OG-

    My register just clunks.
    Thanks for the commodity price/cost lesson- Good to keep aware of.

    WT
    Mar 20, 2015. 05:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    >Mercy-

    You and Maya got me curious. Looked into AH on (SCO) and picked up a chunk at $93.24, net. Reg hours close at $93.38.

    WT
    Mar 20, 2015. 05:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    WOW!

    (AAPL) took a $2.50 hit in the last few minutes of trading.

    Closed at $125.90 off $1.60 for the day

    Watching the announcer on MSNBC saying Apple finally stopped dropping with the AAPL chart behind her showing the loss!
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    I think this commentary from Marketwatch on the Euro/Dollar possibilities is worth a read.
    Excellent analysis IMO.

    By Anatole Kaletsky

    http://on.mktw.net/1xm...

    WT
    Mar 20, 2015. 04:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    >SHB-

    Re PM increase.

    I believe the pop was in reaction to the drop in the dollar. I think most commodities bounced a bit. I see that non-hedged foreign ETFs also had a good day, also in reaction to a dollar drop.

    WT
    Mar 20, 2015. 03:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quickchat #279, March 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    >Mercy-

    Re: (SDS) I was thinking more in feral terms rather than short-term protective when I bot my chunk.

    LOL!

    WT
    Mar 20, 2015. 03:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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