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Windwood Trader

Windwood Trader
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  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Starer position in (WY) at $35.22

    WT
    Feb 18, 2015. 03:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Sold the block of (TSO) March 6 CALLs at $3.78. Basis of $1.45. Not bad for 24 hours.

    Holding the $85 PUTs (short) Basis $3.48, now $2.68

    WT
    Feb 18, 2015. 03:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    >LT-

    Re: "..things to short.."

    One of the big names that may be currently overvalued IMHO is (MCD) Their earnings have been on a slide for five quarters. Their revenue has dropped over 2% in 2014 and is expected to drop in 2015 as well due to market share decline in domestic and overseas markets. Seems younger folks are seeking healthier alternatives. Their EPS will increase but only as a result of buybacks. The dividend north of 3-1/2 % is certainly attractive but consider that the payout ratio is about 71%. Sounds more like a utility than a thriving enterprise. maintaining that level could be a challenge in the near future.

    They go X-dividend on 26 February.

    I do not hold nor do I have a short position but I'm considering it.

    WT
    Feb 18, 2015. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    >Maya-
    "fluctuated 27%...."

    Just think of what the brokers made moving over 17 million shares and the stock only moved a dime!

    LOL!

    WT
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    >Freya-

    Nice call on (PBIO).

    Up a bunch today, 2/17.
    Hope you bought a bundle!

    WT
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    >For the oil watchers,

    (TSO) up 2% today even though the strike continues. They have a great business plan-

    Refine oil- sell retail product.

    Same as Valero. Only way to do oil, IMHO.

    I'm Short March 06 $85 PUTs and Long March 06 CALLs.

    WT
    Feb 17, 2015. 02:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    >Maya-

    Yep- Checked it out before I got in the pool- Thanks!

    13:30-

    "For Q4, VASCO posted EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $62.4 million. Analysts, according to Capital IQ Estimates, had the company weighing in with earnings of $0.25 a share and revenue of $54 million.

    For its full year 2015, VASCO targets revenue of $220 million to $230 million. Analysts are looking for revenue of $220.33 million."

    WT
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Diesel does cost a bit more to produce than gasoline due to more demanding refining but in the 70s and 80s the volume led to lower prices for diesel. When gasoline needed to become unleaded the cost for that increased.

    Today's prices are more indicative of the relative cost to produce. Following data and chart lay it out pretty well. It does not address off road diesel nor home heating oil which are basically the same product but not taxed in the same fashion.

    http://1.usa.gov/Md6CG2

    WT
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    >Maya-

    You got my attention re: (VDSI).
    Now off $.30 at $27.54 (12:35)

    Momentum oscillator slightly up and pps seems to be attempting to rise.

    Filled a half position at $27.86
    Feb 17, 2015. 12:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    >Mark-

    I'm not so sure about the Sauds not letting the stuff just be totally stored to capacity. What do they care? They have no urgent need for money and their reserve is probably good for a century or two at a minimum.

    If I were doing strategy I would let everybody tank up and at a point further down the road start raising the bar. So what if it takes a couple of years? I'm in no hurry. The shale oil folks can't really drill many new wells at these prices- at least not for long so they will drop off the radar sooner rather than later. We consume 9 million barrels a day and that rate is increasing steadily. We don't have an energy alternative so we will still be Mideast oil captives.

    SSDD-

    WT
    Feb 17, 2015. 12:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Minus 14F at 06:00 with 25MPH winds gusting to 35. Got Land Cruiser stuck in a 6' drift halfway down my 800' driveway.

    Guess how I spent the next four hours.

    Bah! Humbug!

    WT
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    >Mark-

    Agree on China. I believe they will continue to grow but more in the 5%-6% range. They have probably stockpiled just about everything they need for themselves which I figure is their next step- Target infrastructure for a while. Euroland will be restructuring for a new(er) capitalism.

    The fog on the periphery in my thinking is old Vlad and what those Muscovites have planned for their next act. The ISIS thing is a real bit of sand in the ointment as well. All the think tank mags and books I absorb have no clear direction. Guess I'll just whistle past the graveyard like everyone else.

    WT
    Feb 15, 2015. 06:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    FWIW-

    European stocks have been outperforming US stocks by a wide margin this year, especially Germany and France with Spain and Italy not far behind. To those (like me) that feel European stocks will continue to outperform while the Euro will likely fall some more. Buying European stocks has obvious currency risk. One way to hedge is with (HEDJ) a Wisdom Tree ETF or a straight currency hedge using (UUP) or a 3X USD/EURO leveraged bet using EUO.

    The (HEDJ) distro yield is a little over 5% and the Wisdom Tree fund has over $10 Billion in it. Trades over 4 million shares daily.

    A couple of supporting articles follow.

    http://on.wsj.com/1FODzkS

    http://bit.ly/1FODzkU

    WT
    Feb 15, 2015. 09:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    Getting clobbered pre-market-

    SDRL $12.21 Dn $.81
    ZNGA $2.30 Dn $.86
    Feb 13, 2015. 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #278, February 5, 2015 [View instapost]
    >DG-

    Good one- Thanks!

    Great memories! And

    YES! It is working! Arrrgh.............

    WT
    Feb 13, 2015. 09:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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