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Windwood Trader

Windwood Trader
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  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    >SHB-

    "WT, I believe that the point of the article was that, historically, the price of O&G stocks has been only loosely correlated with the price of oil. "

    My response is that it ain't necessarily so. To me oil price and O&G stocks were/are in lock-step right now. The trades make it that way until stocks begin to move back towards more normal territory with oil prices likely following- still pretty much together though.

    WT
    Dec 8, 2014. 03:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    >SHB-

    Re: O&G prices coorelation to stock prices?

    I can tell you my thesis FWIW.

    When I first saw that oil prices were falling I immediately dropped my CVX and XOM. I felt that there would be more source competition for the product they sell. Good move.

    I then dumped my HAL and PKD and Shorted RIG when I saw the Norwegians had cut RIG's daily rate. Another good move. I figured rigs would lose their allure- Yes.

    When I was up 25% on the RIG short I covered. Left a lot on the table. Oh well. True cowards will never get rich.

    Pretty basic thinking on my part that accounts for the correlation btw oil prices and oil industry companies.

    Worked for me.

    WT
    Dec 7, 2014. 06:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    >Patrick Young said:
    "Deflation will continue despite the efforts of the Fed and other central banks."

    Does this mean you see a continuing decline in the prices of most commodities? Will coal, oil and metals be something to avoid just now?

    WT
    Dec 7, 2014. 09:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Glad to hear, DG- Pneumonia can do much damage if not dealt with early on. Experience speaking.

    WT
    Dec 6, 2014. 05:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    India projected growth rate to exceed China's by 2016.

    Goldman Sachs- Yesterday-

    http://bit.ly/1yqsUHM

    WT

    Edit:

    IMF predicts a slightly lower India growth rate at 6.4% for 2015-

    http://bit.ly/1w1d60L

    Edit (2)

    Why India growth will move to the front-

    http://yhoo.it/1w1dso7;_ylt=AwrBEiF9foNUdCoA...
    Dec 6, 2014. 05:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    >HTL-

    Agree on your take re Asia's China and Japan- that's where the demand is. Can't forget India as another awakening tiger- maybe the most awesome of all in the not too distant future. Asia's Frontier markets plus Malaysia and Indonesia are not just going to sit back and be miserable either.

    I feel that China may have slowed to the point that their growth will be reduced a lot they will STILL grow- Maybe not 8%, maybe not even 6% but they will continue to move the needle. China growing at 5% would produce more GDP than all of Europe combined for EU and non EU as well.

    They will not turn off the commodity tap completely and an Aussie dollar at its current level may be quite attractive to our Asian buddies. Japan has no choice but to grow its way out of their deflationary mess and needs buckets of materiel.

    One area I have a hard time finding fertile for my dollars is the US markets- except hi-yield. I am keeping the bulk there right now. I'm firmly in the camp that sees little chance of rates rising from any fed action for maybe all of 2015.

    Be careful out there!

    WT
    Dec 6, 2014. 04:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Re: Aussie dollar drop-

    I'm looking to commodities from Australia as a potential investment garden right now. With a cheapened dollar the Aussies may have a higher world demand on their 'out-of-the-ground products rather than their manufactured ones.

    WT
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    >SHB-

    I may be reading the graphic incorrectly but it appears to me that the oil price in this graph is a LAGGING indicator, following the economy shift south.

    The recession of 2008 had already begun while oil continued higher for quite a while finally turning down after the recession was- about a year?- old.

    WT
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Re: Delinquent auto loans-

    I wonder if more International Harvester's repo vehicles are being sold? Might be an investment opportunity there.

    WT
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    >SHB- Thanks!

    Beautiful analogy on the world financial situation-

    WT
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Re: Solar-

    Thanks, OR for the info.

    A friend also installed panels on their garage roof only as that was facing in the proper direction for efficient collection. Their production feeds directly back to the utility and their average production for the first four months is 400KW Hours per month. Their total consumption averages 1200KW hours per month.

    By the numbers it looks like they would be saving one third of the cost but with all the other static costs like delivery charges, regulatory fees, taxes and base fees savings comes to about 24% in equivalent electricity cost.

    I don't know what their install cost arrangement was.

    We live in the northern part of New York state near Albany so the sunshine factor is much lower than Arizona.

    Congrats on making the move- I'm sure it will pay off.

    WT
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    DG-

    "Just keeps on giving..."

    Having been down this road several times it
    sounds like a classic case of pneumonia!

    Time to get an xray. You don't want to fool around with this.

    WT
    Dec 6, 2014. 09:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    >HTL-

    "OK. After the initial knee-jerk reaction..."

    Amazing how easy it is to keep a close eye on one-line statistics and make a quick scalp on the predictability of the market moves.

    WT
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    It's really hard to ignore the mega-growth that is China, even with a lower rate of same.

    Once they are able to conquer their hunger and thirst they will become a sort of perpetual motion machine growing on itself.

    India may be the same breed of cat one day but they must find a cure for their constant squabbles and infighting.

    WT
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    >Occams-

    Re: Solar unit- Can you share the particulars? Cost, payback period, where you live, etc.?

    Thanks,

    WT
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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