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Windwood Trader

Windwood Trader
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  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    >Mark-

    I believe it is an overall implosion as a result of the very high leverage derivatives provide with that leverage now working in the opposite direction. In Shanghai I suspect that so much yuan was tied to the real estate growth monster that when overbuilding and enterprise failures took hold the poof effect occurred faster than sell trades could be generated. Securities values and real estate values in certain sectors in China just evaporated.

    I believe that same principle took hold in Mercy's comments on the Dow futures margin calls.

    At this point that I must question just how valid the expectation that growth in China will really reach 5 to 6% or will those dreams fall short as well. It's getting harder and harder to find a place to bury your head in the sand.

    Time to stock the basement with K-rations and water?

    WT
    Jul 27, 2015. 11:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    I know that some QC aficionados follow (O), Realty Income Corp.

    I came across this article today that is more opinion than anything but I do find some of the comments of interest.

    http://seekingalpha.co....

    Anyone venture an opinion?

    While I am 85% cash right now the close to 5% yield provides some attraction on this realty company.

    WT
    Jul 26, 2015. 10:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability Of The European Union June 1, 2015 To ??? [View instapost]
    >Mark and FPA-

    Great work, guys!

    I had about 80% of the monetary facts and half the analysis correctly. While both of you completed the puzzle and created more than adequate comprehension.

    Many thanks-

    WT
    Jul 26, 2015. 09:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    >LT-

    Agree China will be fine albeit at a "lower growth rate" of maybe 6 to 7%.

    The REAL growth engine is India as long as the politics allow Modi to continue his agenda. The link is to Modi's views on social issues and politics.

    http://bit.ly/1GQQEbp

    I am long on India consumer and infrastructure stocks.

    WT
    Jul 26, 2015. 09:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    >Maya-

    I can only offer my wife's response as I had, of course forwarded the link to several people.

    Donna's response..............


    YUKKA MUKKA!!!!!

    WT
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    >SHB-

    Neat stuff. I have to go twice a year and they draw about half a pint at a time.

    WT
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has an abundance of data, historical and projected.

    http://1.usa.gov/IhGSUR

    Since my inbred paranoia has not yet triggered a klong I believe their figures to be reasonably accurate and on target.

    For the skeptics on the board criticize if you will- just show me where YOUR data comes from. I have cashed in numerous times on reading information that others find dull or irrelevant.

    It appears that we will have more than enough energy products to go around for at least the next couple of years, unless there is a black swan.

    Demand for energy products will continue to grow so the winners in the oil patch will continue to be those that refine as a primary business, those that transport the product and those that sell retail. All others will do less well until supply drops lower towards supply and a revived demand for drilling ensues. A long time out I believe.

    There are those that think a nice juicy war in the middle east would bump up the price of oil, and it, of course would. Think anyone might have one on their agenda?

    Wouldn't be the first time.

    Have a great weekend, everyone!

    WT
    Jul 24, 2015. 04:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    >DG-

    I'd be willing to bet that the "Sisters" would be scapping up distressed oilers like nobody's business before bankruptcy was declared. They seem to always have the cash when it's needed for aquisitions.

    WT
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    >Mark-

    Will do. 'Tis indeed odd though that my drawer's mouldering contents all started moving in the last week. The oldest holding is Uluru (ULUR) a synthetic wound patch which actually becomes permanent and integrates with the skin. Used in burns and where healing is compromised in some way. Held this baby a couple of years now. The Doc first put me onto it. Did quite a few successful trades and then went big and it caved big time- was dealing with a 70% drawdown which has in the last two weeks been reduced to about 45%.

    Great product but definite niche deal. Been waiting for the buyout a long time while sales keep growing. No news that I see yet.

    You never know- Maybe it is arrived.

    WT
    Jul 23, 2015. 12:27 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    >Maya-

    Forgot one other bomb- Or maybe I was just TRYING to forget my buy of (MRO) in April @ $28.50 and watching in slide on the greased chute to its current price of $22.30.

    I keep trying to convince myself that it will rally when conditions improve.

    Right...

    WT
    Jul 22, 2015. 04:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Sock drawer movement-

    (BIOD) up another 2.5% today
    (PBIO) up 6% today

    WT
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    >Maya-

    I hold

    (VLO) bought January @ $46 now $66-
    (TSO) bought January @ $69 now $99-
    (PSX) bought February @ $75 now $82

    (NE) bought February @ $16 now $13 (loser) sold 1/2 @ $17
    (STO) bought March @ $17.50 now $17 (loser) sold 1/2 @ $20.50


    Plus dividends


    WT
    Jul 22, 2015. 03:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Re: (MEMP)

    Well, if you liked MEMP at $15 you have to just plain adore it at $11.50- down another 5.5% today.

    (VLO) however up another 1.7% today at $67.46 and (TSO) still climbing at $100 up 1% today.

    WT
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:10 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    >Freya-
    Relative positioning trends are part of my analytical arsenal. The ratios of S&P vs the price of commodities (primarily oil) on a historical basis and the S&P vs precious metals.

    Not the end-all by any means, just another piece of the puzzle.

    Gold under $1100

    Bespoke offers the following:

    http://bit.ly/1HRAMY9

    WT
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:37 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quick Chat #281 June 1 2015 [View instapost]
    Doug Short with some great graphics on margin debt- Up 1.2% over last month.

    http://bit.ly/1Ib6jDp

    WT
    Jul 21, 2015. 08:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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