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13 Notes on Financials and Real Estate [View article]
Have you looked at:
(1) Natural amortization of housing over time if builders are actually rational,
(2) Normal population growth which I believe is more than 0%.
The builders are the key here as they must act rationally. However, if they do and if (1) + (2) is greater than the loss of the boomers to the south than no problems will arise.