Zhang Fei's Comments

China's Growth: Far Less than Meets the Eye

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 22:46:05 -0400

"I say investment because they have learned from Goldman that you can pump and dump and when they dump the dollar they will buy every type of hard asset they can get and own the US."

That's actually not a bad idea. When the Japanese went on a buying binge stateside - their American investments were stable, whereas their Japanese holdings dropped in half.

China's Growth: Far Less than Meets the Eye

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 19:35:55 -0400

MChen: "While Americans think only of next quarter, the Chinese plan for the next 5000 years!"

That's pretty impressive - to think that Mao Zedong's mass famines (Great Leap Forward and Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution) were planned 5000 years ago. It's also kinda cool that 5000 years ago, the Chinese were planning to ditch all their traditions (polygamy, legal prostitution, traditional costume, absolute monarchy) and adopt Western customs wholesale.

China's Growth: Far Less than Meets the Eye

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 19:32:07 -0400

Perhaps Chinese politicians aren't that much different from western politicians. Short-term solutions that cause long-term problems is what western politicians usually go for in order to get re-elected. And that's what the Chinese government is doing now too.

Western governments can lose elections and go back into the private sector. If the Chinese government falls, Hu Jintao & Co. could end up being beaten to death, much like the steel company executive several days ago.

Foreclosure Versus Delinquency: Either Way, Financials Will Pay

Fri, 14 Mar 2008 03:04:39 -0400

Quote: "Foreclosure is to blame for the banks'' recovery rate of 50%, a very low historical rate, as indicated by Bernanke last week."

Here's a simple-minded question - what do you mean when you write recovery rate? Is that the percentage of the principal amount of the debt recovered - i.e. a recovery rate of 50% on $1000 face value of bonds means the bondholders got $500 back?

Stillwater Mining: Capitalize on Undervalued Palladium

Wed, 07 Nov 2007 16:47:55 -0500

If their extraction costs are $340 per ounce, then it would probably make sense to value the company's reserves at $20 per ounce. And if palladium mining is anything like gold mining, it probably consists of making sand out of big rocks. Which means the cost of extraction is probably much closer to $360 per ounce than $20 per ounce.

Here's a quote from Stillwater itself:

"n 2005, Stillwater Mining produced a total of 554,000oz of palladium and platinum, which included 428,000oz of palladium and 126,000oz of platinum. The average cash cost of production was US$324/oz, with a total production cost of US$472/oz."

The cash cost probably refers to ongoing costs (power and labor costs) whereas the total production cost includes the sunk (fixed) costs as well, which might include exploration and equipment costs.