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Zhang Fei

Zhang Fei
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  • Amazon.com Shipping Change Means The Earnings Miss Is Probably Massive [View article]
    "Alibaba already has AliExpress.com as its US facing marketplace."

    Isn't that mainly wholesale quantities (i.e. 100 units and up)?
    Oct 22 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Why It Can Go To $18+ Per Share And Is Good For At Least A Trade [View article]
    Thanks for both the extremely informative article and the thoughtful responses to the criticisms leveled at the article.
    Oct 4 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J C :Penney 1 Year Default Probability 2.80%, Up 0.09% Today [View instapost]
    Great article. Thanks for the update.
    Oct 2 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 More Things You Need To Know About Amazon.com [View article]
    "You mean when solid companies like Cisco were P/E 200? wrong-wrong... wrong-wrong

    Must have been before your time."

    The internet bubble burst in March 2000. CSCO's last annual report before that report: http://bit.ly/16NLX0g

    Refer to page 33 for the revenue numbers.
    Sep 30 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Ridiculously Overvalued Despite Poor Industry Outlook [View article]
    "as well as solar energy farms in the desert ... "

    That seems to be for show more than anything else. A negligible amount of China's power is provided by expensive alternative energy schemes, which pencil out out to at least 25 cents per KWh, way too expensive for China's needs.
    Sep 29 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Ridiculously Overvalued Despite Poor Industry Outlook [View article]
    "Cn is building nuclear plants"

    Nuclear plants do provide cheaper energy, if some of the safety measures are omitted. One major nuclear accident though, and the 10 plants a year goes out the window. A shoddily constructed bridge that fails will kill perhaps dozens. A badly-constructed nuclear power station the goes south is a horse of a different color.
    Sep 29 06:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Ridiculously Overvalued Despite Poor Industry Outlook [View article]
    "a simple google search will reveal that the Chinese govt is going toward building additional nuclear power plants. 17 under construction now with plans for an additional 200. But it's a good theory."

    China has a lot of ministries and a lot of self-appointed spokespeople, many jockeying for influence in the party and/or bribes related to large capital projects. What some government flack says on behalf of his department head may never materialize. A lot of these statements are made to give the projects an air of inevitability when the money hasn't even been allocated. China has less than 20 nuclear plants today. To build 10 a year and 200 in total represents a staggering rate of construction. Color me skeptical.

    Nuke plants require infrastructure to process nuclear material. Here's a sample of what's in store for any large scale increase in nuclear processing plants: http://bloom.bg/18zH3Hc

    Meanwhile, interest in coal gasification is proceeding apace: http://on.ft.com/18e2JtB
    Sep 28 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Ridiculously Overvalued Despite Poor Industry Outlook [View article]
    "your missing the point that root is making. If china decides to get away from coal it will happen in a much more rapid fashion then if it was another country."

    My point is that without quantifiable benefits, China will not move away from coal. Economic growth is what keeps the party in power, and the factions within the party from reaching for each other's throats.

    In addition, a major nuclear accident could be more than a black eye - it could threaten the regime's existence, given that its whole raison d'etre is its claim to managerial competence. A train crash that kills dozens can be explained away. A nuclear accident that kills tens of thousands is something else. Note that Japan has not had a bullet train incident involving fatalities in 50 years of operations, whereas China has had one involving 40 dead in just 4 years of operations. Meanwhile, Japan has had the Fukushima meltdown. A major natural disaster could trigger something similar in China, probably on a far larger scale, given the Chinese propensity to cut corners and their disdain for safety measures.

    The leadership is aware of these issues and knows that even the economic stats are fudged. Given the stakes involved, I'd expect the Chinese to move away from nuclear power rather than towards it. Bottom line is that coal, being the cheapest fuel source for power stations, is the way ahead for China. They may shut down and refurb existing power stations to install smog control equipment, but that's about as far as they'll go.
    Sep 27 11:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 More Things You Need To Know About Amazon.com [View article]
    Kroger, the blue chip mass market grocer, trades at 1/5 of annual sales. So it's conceivable that AMZN might eventually trade for $15b, or roughly $30 per share. Unlike AMZN, KR actually makes money.
    Sep 27 07:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Ridiculously Overvalued Despite Poor Industry Outlook [View article]
    "the U.S. coal industry's adversaries range from Beijing's coughing commuters"

    On a per capita basis, Germany consumes as much coal as China, but in a much smaller space. The problem in China isn't coal - it's coal plants without adequate pollution controls. http://1.usa.gov/194mjeI
    Sep 27 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy: Ridiculously Overvalued Despite Poor Industry Outlook [View article]
    "When the Chinese govt built the Three Gorges Dam they displaced 1.2 million people, flooded 13 cities, 140 towns, 1,350 villages. My guess is that was not built by winning local consensus."

    The dam made economic sense - it provided cheap (and non-polluting) hydro power to tens of millions, while serving as a means of flood control - something the Chinese have been obsessed with for thousands of years. http://bit.ly/1fNJkUn 44 coal power plants' worth of power output without any ongoing fuel expenses were the critical factors in the decision to build.
    Sep 27 03:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Huge Ecosystem Blunder [View article]
    I am skeptical. AAPL needs CHL more than the other way around. AAPL can't give CHL preferential terms without sparking a revolt among existing carriers. Meanwhile, Android phones are at parity even in the US market. There is no reason at all for CHL to sign up for AAPL's onerous terms, and no reason for AAPL to give on those terms, because any give will snowball with the other carriers.
    Sep 27 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New iPhone: Bigger Margins [View article]
    In fact, it's less absurd to think that the 4s might have sold 2.5m units at the 5's product introduction than to think that the 5c sold 2.5m units at the 5s's product introduction. The 4s had in its favor excellent packaging, whereas the 5c is just a 5 in a plastic case whose primary virtue is that AAPL makes more money off it. From a consumer standpoint, that's a defect, not a virtue.
    Sep 27 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New iPhone: Bigger Margins [View article]
    "You think they might have sold 2.5mm iP4S models in the three day weekend of the iP5 rollout? Let me put this nicely...no way!"

    It's a reasonable assumption - people have contracts coming up and they may not want to wait for the new Iphone, or may not think the new Iphone is worth the extra money. The hype surrounding the product introduction reminds people that it's time to get a new Iphone, so they pick up the 4s instead of the 5. It's no more absurd than to suggest that 1/3 of this year's Iphone sales may have been of 5c's, which are 5's in a plastic case.
    Sep 27 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New iPhone: Bigger Margins [View article]
    "for some reason I have yet to figure out, the public likes the S models better than the whole numbers!"

    That's not actually clear. AAPL chose not to break out 5s vs 5c numbers, making comparisons with the prior year difficult.
    Sep 26 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
606 Comments
669 Likes