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Zhang Fei

Zhang Fei
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  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    "What is the percentage share (or at least an estimate) of AAPL profits in the total PC market then according to you? "

    I don't know, and I can't begin to guess. There's no way of knowing if his guess is accurate because the underlying numbers aren't available except to AAPL's planning and accounting staff and high level insiders.
    Jan 29, 2014. 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    I dismiss those numbers because there is no way to validate them - they are unfalsifiable. The difference between my numbers and your numbers is that mine are GAAP numbers from Edgar, prepared by hordes of accountants and planning staff at DELL and AAPL, and yours comes from the educated guess of a sell-side analyst.
    Jan 29, 2014. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    "I don't follow you here. Apple takes up to 50% of all profits in the PC market - as we all know that is a mature market long past its growth stage - even declining for most vendors since around 2011."
    That number doesn't even make sense - as recently as 2006, prior to the Iphone's intro in 2007, DELL alone made more profits than AAPL. Note that from 2001 to 2006, AAPL's profits included numbers from the highly profitable Ipod, which came out in 2001. Besides, until AAPL starts breaking out operating income numbers by product division, anyone who says he knows how much it makes at that level is just guessing. That particular article was a particularly egregious back-of-the-napkin guess.
    Jan 29, 2014. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    "Given the methodology of your analysis, Samsung has never created anything. Ever!"
    That is correct. Samsung has never invented anything. I'm sure it's filed for a ton of patents the way big tech companies do, but if we're talking finished products, it's never really come up with anything new that did not disappear without a trace. It's a hyper-competent tech follower rather than a creator of new products, Korea's equivalent of Dell, but in conglomerate form.
    Jan 29, 2014. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    "Are you aware of the AAPL profit share in the PC market in 2013 and 2014 as a % of the overall proft total - despite the small PC marketshare Apply has?"
    Of course - and the high price umbrella that drives those margins is what has enabled its competitors to not only survive, but sell good enough products that are driving AAPL's market share to new lows. These competitors have reduced the Iphone unit growth rate from 29% to 7%. Given that the Iphone has an ever-increasing roster of telecom carriers, this means that unit sales at the Iphone's average telecom carrier are flat or falling. As that market share starts falling at a faster rate, and total unit sales follow, expect margins to nose-dive. That's not even factoring price compression, as AAPL responds to a vertical dive in market share by lowering prices. People are assuming that high-end mobile phones will always hold on to the new peak in phone pricing set by the Iphone. If they fall to the peak levels of Nokia phones in their heyday, industry profits will follow, and AAPL's market cap will fall far below NOK's at its peak, because NOK made those profits on the strength of being a market share leader, which AAPL is not.
    Jan 29, 2014. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    It's been a safe bet since the Ipad came out in 2010. Since its inception, AAPL has come out with 6 new products, the Apple I computer, the Lisa (the first in the Mac line), the Newton, the Ipod, the Iphone and the Ipad, the last two of which are arguably Ipod line extensions, meaning that the last time AAPL came up with something genuinely new, the Ipod, was in 2001. The idea that AAPL is a continuous stream of new products rather than tweaks to existing products is contradicted by the historical record.
    Jan 29, 2014. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    One of these days, old-timers like me are gonna pose a hypothetical question: "How do you become a millionaire?" and answer it "You start out with several million dollars, and then you buy AAPL."
    Jan 29, 2014. 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    That's a great recommendation for buying - it's more overvalued than last year. Meanwhile, Iphone unit growth slowed from 29% to 7%. Of course, AAPL = Gucci. Raising the share price simply makes its shareholders want to buy more. I'd love to see a silk screen t-shirt with a trade confirmation showing an AAPL trade at $700. Poor shlubs pay $200 for Iphones with overpriced 2-year service contracts because they can't fork up the cash. Real men buy AAPL shares hand over fist at the peak.
    Jan 29, 2014. 10:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    AAPL is destined to be niche player, now that it's run out of iPod line extensions, and Android devices are good enough at a fraction of the price. Smart devices are going the way of DVD players, with the universal margin compression that implies. The Samsung vs Apple vs generic palooka partisans (for king of the hill/a trillion dollar market cap) are pie-eyed optimists. At best, in the medium term (<5 years), this ends up as a rerun of the PC wars, with everyone marginally profitable. At worst, it's DVD players redux, with everyone losing money.
    Jan 29, 2014. 10:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    Iphone units:
    1Q12 (99 days) 37.04m
    1Q13 (92 days) 47.8m (29% increase despite fewer selling days, due to relentless carrier additions)
    1Q14 (92 days) 51m (only 7% increase despite no decrease in selling days and relentless carrier additions)
    This looks a lot like the peak of a parabola.
    Jan 29, 2014. 10:34 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    Apple Inc. $AAPL Admits It Needs Smartphone Subsidies -- AT&T Says Subscribers Don't Want Them http://bit.ly/1iaDVY5

    Google's Android ended 2013 as the top mobile operating system across Europe with a 68.6% market share, while Apple's iOS held second place with 18.5%. http://bit.ly/1iaE2CQ

    If Apple's US market share plummets to the European level, where subsidies are uncommon, at the current price points, AAPL's share price will fall some. If future price points reach half their current level, as the technology matures, AAPL's market cap will fall to NOK's peak (~$100b), a very big cap, but a pale shadow of its all-time high.
    Jan 29, 2014. 10:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doubling Down On Apple [View article]
    "Dream on..............it is better to be 'Tiffany' than 'Target' in this market."
    Great analogy - TIF has way better margins than TGT, but only generates a profit 1/6 as large. AAPL is destined to be niche player, now that it's run out of iPod line extensions, and Android devices are good enough at a fraction of the price. Smart devices are going the way of DVD players, with the universal margin compression that implies. The Samsung vs Apple vs generic palooka partisans make me smile. At best, this ends up as a rerun of the PC wars, with everyone marginally profitable. At worst, it's DVD players redux, with everyone losing money.
    Jan 28, 2014. 01:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Hit Apple's Last Two Quarters EPS Results: Here Are My December Quarter Projections [View article]
    Iphone units:

    1Q12 (99 days) 37.04m
    1Q13 (92 days) 47.8m (29% increase despite fewer selling days)
    1Q14 (92 days) 51m (only 7% increase despite no decrease in selling days)

    This looks a lot like the peak of a parabola.
    Jan 27, 2014. 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DELiA*S: Flush With Activists, But What's The Catalyst? [View article]
    "Her approach is to start from scratch by changing the product mix (more in-house design), changing the fashion, and changing the target marketed demographic (17 yr older instead of 12-17 yr olds hoping the younger set will follow)."

    Ron Johnson decided to change JCP's customer base. He's now spending more time with his family.
    Dec 7, 2013. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lampert's Grip On Sears Weakens [View article]
    I can't speak for M. Santos here but my view is that Sears's current condition is non-actionable in the near-term, from an investment standpoint. The short is too crowded and vulnerable to a squeeze. The puts are too expensive. Meanwhile, the company could turn around if Eddie Lamprey either has a change of heart about his top-heavy corporate structure or truly delegates the management of the company to a retail pro. At the same time, he could run the company into the ground via the death of a thousand miscues. There are instances where sheer uncertainty means it's better to stay aloof. This is one of them.
    Dec 5, 2013. 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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675 Comments
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