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walter scott

walter scott
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  • Honeywell International: This Stock Is Worth Buying [View article]
    HON? No comment.
    Aug 21 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Honeywell declares $0.45 dividend [View news story]
    Good article and much food for thought, thank you. My take away is that HON is a complex company with many moving parts. Many things in many markets have to go in the right direction, and many things have to go right operationally as well. In the mean time, its less than 2% dividend is insufficient incentive to wait them out.

    True, they have crafted a good story, and that will probably pump up the stock from time to time. It has certainly impressed the analysts. On the other hand, their diverse businesses make them more exposed to bad press in one or other of the many activities they are in. And as we all know, bad press in any one area can tarnish a story and take the stock with it.

    If the dividend yield was more like 4% I may take the plunge. As it is, I'm looking for a better risk/reward and an easier-to-understand and analyze investment.
    Aug 21 05:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYT: Unclear if Russia-China gas news is MOU or real deal [View news story]
    German paper Die Zeit also reports it's a done deal. There are also multiple reports that China will be making pre-payments (in USD?). So much for sanctions. Thanks are due to the administration for pushing this deal through. Putin couldn't have done it without them.

    I must agree with the comments re the NYT; it's administration propaganda, especially on foreign policy.
    May 21 01:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Oil Under Serious Threat [View article]
    My takeaway from all this is as follows:

    1. We have had in the past and have now ongoing climate change and it's more likely to be global warming than a new ice age.

    2. As to what causes it -- frankly, I'm not smart enough to have a sound opinion, but I hope I'm smart enough to think of a good way to make some money out of the ebb and flow of the debate. However, that's a subject for another time.

    3. Not at all discussed is the fact that Geo-politics continues to destabilize the price of energy. Isolating Russia, Middle East turmoil, African bloodbaths, South American follies, and yes, the all Nuclear is bad lobby -- all have an impact.

    4. Alternatives to oil/gas take a long time to develop and even longer to be accepted.

    5. Demand for energy by a growing population of affluent consumers is rising.

    5. Oil and Gas prices strongly correlate with big oil's profits. Higher prices almost always mean more profits.


    a) The price oil is more likely to rise than to fall, and so Oil company profits are more likely to rise than to fall.

    b) Go/stay long big oil -- at least for the next five years, and while you're waiting, take the dividends.

    Disclosure: I'm long big oil and intend to stay that way.
    May 10 03:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lockheed: Still A Safer Bet? [View article]
    One of the keys to maintaining our ability to protect our interests at nominal cost is our absolute control of the air. Should this change as a result of technical breakthroughs that render our air-power technologies obsolete, it will severely limit our ability to respond to events that threaten our interests.

    In my opinion, LMT's long-term stability is underpinned by the US Government's commitment to maintain our air superiority technologies, and never letting them fall behind.

    I was long LMT, but sold at $140 after a 50% run up in the stock. I'm ready to get back in but will wait for a dip.
    Jan 6 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income repositions portfolio [View news story]
    What's wrong with O?

    I'm long O and wondering if I should buy more. However, it's been below $40 since mid November and sunk to as low as $36.68.

    A couple of months ago we were reading how wonderful it was. Indeed, many people wrote they were ready to jump in if it ever got down to $40.00. Today it was $37.99 at 16h00. The yield is 5.4%. Why aren't people rushing in and buying and collaterally pushing the price up? Anyone know what's going on?
    Jan 6 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portugal Telecom: Dividend Cut As Expected [View article]
    I'm long PT and plan to hang on for at least another year beyond the merger. Looks highly likely that the dividend payout will be about US$0.25 per share in 2014 and, if I'm right, the dividend withholding will go from 20% (Portugal) to 15% (Brazil).

    However, we have layered risk here. There's USD/R$ currency risk, merger execution risk and new management structure/culture risk on top of BRICS and South European risk. I give this one a 51/49 chance of a 50%+ capital appreciation in the next two years.. Why? I'm not really sure. I suspect it's more an expression of hope than anything else. Maybe it's the uptick in the economies of Europe and the US that we're hearing about that may take Brazil with it. Or, maybe it's because I haven't seen anything that has convinced me that it can't happen.

    All very lame, I know. Anyway, I'm a hold, albeit not a very strong or convincing one.
    Dec 31 02:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly [View article]

    I love your comment, but I maybe the GOP were just a little more devious:

    GOP: Can we burn your house down?
    Obama: No!
    GOP: OK, how about we just take out all supporting columns?
    Obama: No!
    GOP: OK, how about we leave the column on the left corner, but no termite inspections and/or control, and you can't paint it for 20 years?
    Obama: No!!!
    GOP: So you're not willing to compromise.
    Oct 23 05:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly [View article]
    Given the damage done to the economy by the shutdown and the ongoing dysfunction of our political system, interest rates may be kept low for at least another year to prop things up. If that's the case, mREITS may have some life left after all. Anyone agree?
    Oct 23 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly [View article]
    When a family member threatens to burn the house down unless you give into her demands, you don't compromise: you call the folks in the white coats.
    Oct 23 03:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dundee REIT: A Cheap Canadian Real Estate Play [View article]
    Very interesting. Thank you for the suggestion. Where can I get a look at their complete financial statements including cash flows.
    Oct 17 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 80 Year Prediction On 3D Printing And Robotics [View article]
    Been following 3D printing for 15 years or more. At most, it's a prototyping technology, and then for only a limited number of things that don't need to be particularly strong.

    Cute, but not ready for prime time.

    Invest in it? Fool's gold.
    Oct 10 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zais Financial Is Misunderstood And Undervalued With A 16% Yield And Strong Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Thank you for a great article and the research you've done on ZFC.

    After reading it, I was ready to buy; however, when I found that last year's dividend payout was almost 10x operating cash flow, today's market cap is a microscopic $133 MM, and the dividend had shrunk to about 10.5% since you wrote the article, I didn't bother looking for the quarterly reports. It's way outside my risk tolerance. Maybe all mREITS are.

    Agreed, if I understood how mREITS do thier magic, I may have come to a different conclusion. In the mean time, I'm reading all I can about how they do their stuff, and maybe then I'll be able to jump in, or not.
    Sep 13 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Common Sense Strategies For Mitigating Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 2 [View article]
    Chuck, thank you for a very good article. You article came at a very good time as I am rationalizing my retirement portfolio and re-evaluating its risks

    One risk that you didn’t mention (which a banker friend alerted me to a couple of months ago) is custodial risk. If for example your brokerage account is with an institution that fails as a result of fraud, you could loose a big percentage of your holdings, and what you recover may take a while to be returned to you.

    Brokerage fraud is not as uncommon as people think. A little time with Google will give you a sense of its extent. Forbes has an article titled “How Safe Is Your Brokerage Account?” which has some very useful information.

    The answer is to be careful whom you deal with, and split you holdings between brokerage firms. If you want to be really safe (and protect yourself from heat-of-the-moment transactions) have your shares registered in your name. And if you’re buying treasuries at issue, buy them and keep them at TreasuryDirect ( which is run by the United States Treasury.

    For us older folks, the number one investment directive is: Don’t loose it. And that goes for the number two directive as well.

    Thanks again Chuck.
    Sep 8 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Digital Realty's Crisis Of Confidence Persist? [View article]
    You raise an interesting issue. "The increase in data density and the decrease in power required for a given amount of data just means that it is cheaper to hold on to data, and so a use for the data that once cost too much to keep..."

    Consider the following. As the cost of the technology to hold the data becomes cheaper and cheaper, the cost of keeping all that data should approach the cost of the floor space it occupies and the power it consumes. However, the cost of keeping the increasing amount of data that you say people will be motivated to keep because of the declining cost of keeping it, will eventually have to increase if DLR is to remain in good health. This is what I have a problem with. I think that the net IT costs are being driven down by management and that means less floor space.

    Another issue for corporations and private parties is whether or not, for legal and security reasons, it is wise for them to keep all old data, especially data from which plaintiffs lawyers and others may be able to deduce damaging conclusions, or get their hands on propitiatory information.

    Separately, don't forget, in the late '90s corporate computer centers shrank or ceased growing as mainframes went out of style and networked workstations took their place.

    Of course, I said that I feel that DLR is in danger of having the demand for square footage for data storage decline, not the need for space for data, which is think is what you meant to say as well.

    Nonetheless, you make some very good points. Obviously, many people believe in a bright future for DLR and they may be right.
    Sep 8 04:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment