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Dr.KennethReid

Dr.KennethReid
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  • Tesla: Shattering The Lack Of Demand Myth [View article]
    Mark- This is an excellent presentation of the qualitative difference between a Tesla and an ICE vehicle... ANY ICE vehicle. Just as CDs & DVDs replaced tapes, and smartphones replaced flip phones, so the EV will replace the ICE, due to a vastly superior user experience.

    This 'disruption' process will of course be slower with TSLA since the products differ in price by 2 orders of magnitude, but this is just a difference in fractal scale; the process is the same, as is the end result. In the transportation industry, which is huge, Musk is like a kid with a pea-shooter, but this will eventually grow into a classic David and Goliath scenario, where David wins. Instead of taking 2.5 years to destroy an obsolete technology, it will probably take 25.
    Apr 6, 2015. 01:51 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Key Takeaways From Recent Events [View article]
    Musk's comparison of TSLA with Apple may not be far off. Here's why. AAPL went public in 1980 and made virtually no money for 24 years. It wasn't until 2004 that AAPL became a cash machine. That's forever in the electronics biz. I suspect Musk believes he can turn the cash-flow corner significantly faster than Jobs did... perhaps in 10-12 years.

    I would not bet against him because he is using the same playbook as Jobs: create an addictive and disruptive product at a premium price; guarantee an amazing customer experience; offer exceptional customer service and build an ecosystem with a moat.

    The global automobile business dwarfs the telecom/electronics biz. Analyzing TSLA quarter to quarter as though it were an ordinary company is myopic. It's AAPL-2. And institutions realize this, which is why the stock is not going down.
    Feb 16, 2015. 08:49 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennials have the steering wheel now [View news story]
    Good point, but don't forget Gen-X. These folks, born in the shadow of Vietnam and Nixon, and now in their 40's, have a core agenda to expose hypocrisy and change the world. Musk along with Larry Page and Sergey Brin, are the Generals in the Gen-X war on the Boomer status quo. In my view, Tesla is the Gen-X assault vehicle.
    Jan 31, 2015. 10:52 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Audi's Hybrid Q7 Cause Tesla's Model X Backlog To Evaporate? [View article]
    Watched the video. Anton. The new Q7 is about as exciting as a Subaru. If you forced me to drive 848 miles in that thing I think I would scream.
    Jan 1, 2015. 07:12 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Implications Beyond The Electric Car Industry [View article]
    Good points. Tesla is a disruptive company on many levels. The ICE is "so 20th century" and I think most people will be shocked at how quickly it is displaced. It will probably happen in one generation.

    I'm not sure about your $2 trillion/day figure, however. The U.S. power industry generates around 3.5 trillion KWh of electricity annually at a cost of $0.07-$0.16 per/KWh.
    Dec 14, 2014. 03:53 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Empty Threat Of Solid State Batteries [View article]
    Elon is a fully functional futurist, able to solve rocket science problems that NASA engineers never could. He's not going to paint himself into a battery technology corner. Battery science is a very young field since the battery business has always been low margin.

    Low cost, low tech, easy to manufacture Li ion batteries with non-graphite anodes that charge about 20 times faster than 18650's have already been developed at Purdue. Since the prize of winning a Tesla contract would be such a windfall, I expect dozens of suitors with patents in hand to be shipping sample cells to Elon's door over the next few years. That was his message... "Send me a cell."
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Actually A Value Stock? [View article]
    Could you elaborate on your reasoning in regard to the middling innovation score? My overall impression of the Tesla patent portfolio and my personal experience in several test-drives of the Model S suggest extraordinary levels of innovation at Tesla Motors.

    In fact, I would characterize Elon Musk as the most innovative engineer currently working in the tech field, especially if one includes his work in rocketry. If one were to raise the innovation score for Tesla to equal the growth score, what would your price target be?
    Sep 14, 2014. 01:30 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is Short Interest The Best Contrarian Indicator Of All Time? [View article]
    I note from your charts that TSLA short interest rose dramatically well before the stock price ever began ramping up. This indicates that a long-term death bet against TSLA was made years ago by a large number of investors/funds. Given the history of companies in the EV space, that bet certainly made some sense at the time, although someone should have cautioned the shorts that betting against Musk (or others of his ilk, like Steve Jobs) never made anyone a dime.

    In trading and investing, it is much more difficult to manage losing positions intelligently than winning positions. When we have losers, rationality can fly out the window and all sorts of cognitive errors and Freudian defenses come to the rescue of the blighted ego.

    Pointing the finger of folly at the winners is just one example of this syndrome, which deflects attention from the hidden irrationality driving those who stubbornly defend the losing case on the basis of "logic." It's patently illogical that the universe exists and that life on earth exists. Does that make it wrong?

    Sep 2, 2014. 11:44 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Squeeze, Rather Than Short, Of The Decade? [View article]
    LONG TERM SCENARIO
    Yes, TSLA will fall... during the next bear market. AAPL was the cult stock of the last decade: a sexy, addictive product line led by a charismatic genius inventor who ran two companies. Nevertheless, shares of AAPL were cut in half in 2008-2009.

    That 'dip' in AAPL was the only time in the last decade that AAPL's PE was less than 20. Institutions accumulated as retail investors capitulated. That's the nature of the market ecosystem.

    Markets treat their heroes similarly over time. I expect that the same pattern will occur with TSLA....a 50% decline when everyone hates the stock market once again and risk capital rotates to bonds or the sidelines. Institutions, however, don't time the market and they regard bear markets as opportunities. They will be buying up TSLA with both hands at bargain prices, as will happy Tesla owners and savvy long-term retail investors.

    This rally is just a prelude. In the big picture, it doesn't matter except to establish the top of the range for the eventual measuring. The real rally in TSLA shares (~700%, which is what AAPL did from 2009) will happen after the next bear. So keep some powder dry.
    Aug 31, 2014. 09:12 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Poised To Leave Its Competition In The Dust [View article]
    TIPPING POINT
    Based partly on an analysis of TSLA's chart and partly on recent developments, not the least of which is a steeper ramp up in production than previously forecast, which triggered the DB upgrade, I now believe that the Tesla Story has reached critical mass.

    Critical mass is the amount of fissionable material needed to sustain nuclear fission. A few stubborn naysayers notwithstanding, I believe Tesla's momentum is now sustainable and unstoppable.

    In other words, this is the end of the Early Adopter Phase. In Elliott Wave terms, this means the stock is starting Wave 3, the period when the majority of potential investors become willing to get into the stock. The most likely near term target, therefore, is $503.
    Aug 15, 2014. 03:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Needs To Rethink Its Charging Network [View article]
    Private EV charging companies such as the one you profile here are unlikely to find a sustainable business model as they will be competing with home charging (very low cost), Tesla's Superchargers (3X faster and free) and with chargers provided by municipal governments (free or low cost).
    Jul 30, 2014. 08:08 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Closes In On Mass Market [View article]
    "Tesla announced a second quarter profit of 20 cents per share on $405 million in revenue."

    How would you know this a day in advance?
    Jul 30, 2014. 07:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Stock Is Undervalued, Not Overvalued [View article]
    It took just 20 months for Musk to get the Fremont factory commercially operational, which was an astounding feat. I think Tesla's valuation depends largely on Act II, which is the roll out of the Model X. If Musk pulls this rabbit out of the Fremont hat, then he's golden and so is TSLA stock. I believe the odds of this happening are very high. As a Gen-Xer, Musk has a mission to over-deliver. He's only satisfied with the "amazing" because his generational imperative is to change the world. If he succeeds again with the Model X, then TSLA stock will be launched like a Falcon 9.
    Jul 28, 2014. 11:55 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Seeing Musk's Tesla Exit Strategy? [View article]
    >"Musk strikes me as a vision and big picture guy, not a details person; Tesla is a business with a lot of details involved."

    And rocketry is, uh... simple? Right.

    Musk sees himself as an Engineer. Numbers....formulae......

    He also happens to have a big picture view, which is what makes him rather unique. He's made no secret of wanting to leave the CEO position in Tesla in 5-6 years. I doubt he will sell the biz, howeverm as part of that process. He would have sold to Apple or Google already if that were his intention.
    Jul 8, 2014. 11:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tesla Fear Mongering Must Stop [View article]
    Raven- True, but the skepticism about TSLA is actually a good thing. Markets and individual stocks enjoy secular bull runs largely due to the conversion of skeptics. The banderillas thrown at Tesla and Musk in the name of 'logic' fuel a controversy that is good for the stock long-term.
    Jul 7, 2014. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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