jcrash

Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out

Why would there be a "record withdrawl from storage" when industrial use is basically at decade lows?

Are CDS a Good Thing?

On Apr 26 07:42 PM William Cowie wrote:


> Can someone prove a CDS is different from a simple insurance policy?


If I game the system on an insurance company it is called Fraud. If you game the system with a CDS and shorting it is ignored.
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China's Gold Reserves Almost Doubled

Without knowing the date the previous number was released, the new number is meaningless. I'm fairly certain it was a long time ago. Thus, the growth is merely keeping it inline with the reserves.

Are CDS a Good Thing?

CDS's were treated like puts but at just a fraction of the cost. Thus, allowing someone a lever with which to fund the short sales on a security.

"The fact that CDS allowed you to effectively short a credit you didn’t own was not particularly harmful." Yeah, right. If it was not harmful, there shouldn't be a relationship precrash to the number of CDS's on a company and the eventual outcome for said company.

"While it’s probably true that some highly-qualified people who might otherwise have been interested in, say, taking over from Vikram Pandit at Citigroup (C) will now shy away from that job," James Surowiecki writes of Obama's proposed $500K salary cap, "on the whole I’ll be surprised if the plan ends up having a significant impact on the quality of executives at troubled institutions."

What he should say is "Look, could whoever they hire really do any worse?"

Microsoft and eBay Team Up: Desperate or Brilliant?

Saved myself over $200 so far.

It really is tempting to buy even more.

Tying Interest Rates to CDS Is a Recipe for Main Street Disaster

Good article.

Can You See Apple Under $60?

On Nov 21 12:35 PM SteveTheHawk wrote:

> Considering the current economic climate, I don't see Apple as being
> undervalued at all. Even with the huge drop in price, it still has
> a PE of 15. I don't see their sales momentum continuing at its current
> pace. What will drive the price up though is the restoration of faith
> in the credit and stock markets. Who knows if/when that will happen?
> I wouldn't buy it at 190 and I wouldn't buy it at 140. The Pollyanna's
> screamed that it would never see $100.00 again. Yeah....right. In
> normal times, I would jump all over Apple stock at the current price.
> These days..... I'm not exactly excited about it. Maybe I'll buy
> some.... maybe I won't.


Stevie, I dont own Apple, or a mac. I do own a bull put spread on them though.

You need to read the financials and the earnings conferences. You see, in this previous quarter, they actually made about $2.50/share. It is purely a trick of accounting that it doesn't show up that way on the statements. Take $2.5 multiple it by 4, stick any P/E you want on that. If you get a stock price less than the current market value less the cash on hand, don't buy. Otherwise, get a brain.

For you folks that think $60 will never be seen, there is easy money to be had selling the put spreads. Sell 40/60 or 45/65 if you like.

I've gone with the easy money at 30/50 myself.

Berkshire Hathaway Credit Risk, Index Puts Are Overblown Worries

1. You say worst case his indexes are down 40% since the put sell. You sure? Did he sell Russian/Icelandic/Hong Kong? India? Plenty of indexes are off WAY more than 40%. He may well need a 150-200% market run in the intervening years.

2. No way this was a 1:1 bet. You don't hand over $5 billion in cash if you only need want a 6% return.

3. What currencies are involved? He is not the oracle of currencies.

4. The equities within Berk are down plenty.

Methinks you are overcome by Buffetts recent Narcissistic tendencies.

Buffett's Gamble: $40 Billion Bet on Volatility

BTW, his deal with Goldman and GE wasn't that great. His warrants are well out of the money and his debt is still at risk.

You can get 9% tax free from select MLP's right now. These are companies with no debt that make money from transportation of energy, not the actually price it trades. I'd go with MLP's like WMZ. I bought it today, yielding over 9% tax free. Can't beat that with a stick.

Buffett's Gamble: $40 Billion Bet on Volatility

About a month ago? You might want to check your dates on that. I believe he sold those puts many months ago, when the indexes were near their peak.

He needs a 100% return bull market for those puts to not be in the money. Very doable, I agree, but keep in mind the crash in 1932 took some 15 years to return the previous peak.

Drop in Gas Price = $300B Savings

My wife is a pharmaceutical Rep. In July, her company doubled the amount they charge the employees for their company cars due to the high cost of gas.

At present, there are no plans to revoke the increase.

So, it ain't all sunshine and roses.

Cramer's Mad Money - AIG, Show Me the Money (11/20/08)

Article incorrectly lists WMZ instead of WPZ.

Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone?

Hey, tyne, unleaded in Oklahoma is less than half what it was a few months ago. You can fillup for $1.90 a gallon or less.

Possible Outcomes of My Apple Purchase

I have an MBA in finance, dude. I know the technical definitions. I also know that if you are short the 20 puts with all your IRA capital and the stock opens at $14 you are now dead...zero capital or negative. You can lose MORE than all your money shorting puts. It is a leveraged play.

You cannot lose more than all your money in covered calls. Period.