zawy

First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up

I can take a more optimistic view of FSLR than my previous posts. It's possible that FSLR can produce 40 GWp/yr (10 GW/yr actual) at half the cost of nuclear and coal and have enough Tellurium to do it. This would extend the current growth to 2016. Here's why:

Tellurium production is about 500 TPY. Copper's historical trend and current price clearly indicate doubling production by 2016 is possible, and as explained before, a doubling of recovery efficiency is possible. 1.5 micron is possible which means 0.05g/Wp is possible. They can also out-buy everyone else's tellurium. So 2000 TPY at 0.05/Wp is 40 GWp/y.

FSLR could easily have a PE=1.6 and produce 40 GWp/y while accepting half to 1/3 their current profit/Wp and thereby cost 1/2 as much as coal and nuclear. I get 2.5 cents/kWh for FSLR. Coal and nuclear could easily reach 5 cents/kWh by 2016...even if the dollar doesn't fall anymore. The 2.5 cents/kWh is calculated from their guidance:

($0.60/Wp cost + $0.40/Wp profit + $1/Wp installation) x 13% x 1000 Wp/m^2 / (7 kWh/d/m^2 x 365 days x 35 years) = 2.5 cents/kWh

The $1/Wp install and 35 years are optimistic. 7 kWh/d/m^2 is very best locations in U.S.