zawy

82 Comments

    • Crude Oil at $122 Is Good News for Refiners [view article]
      VLO used to trade right with the price of oil. As oil went up, VLO went up twice as fast as its margin increased. Then above somewhere between 90 and 110, VLO started trading inversely. I don't get it. Aug 01 11:27 AM
    • Thailand: Is the Magic Gone for This Cinderella Story? [view article]
      Rice was first grown in Thailand. Jul 30 02:38 PM
    • iPhone Can Replace Laptops for Majority of Computer Users [view article]
      Notice that everyone who agreed with the article's premise owns an iPhone and knows from experience that what the aerticle says. None of those who disagreed indicated that they have even tried an iPhone. I've tried an iphone. I've seen other's change in laptop use from it. My estimate is that time-wise it replaces at least 50% of the laptop. 90% for some people. Personally, when i type i am usually goofing off like right now and would prefer a laptop. But when i'm doing real work, i'm usually just reading the internet. Jul 08 05:33 PM
    • Fundamental Analysis for Emerging Markets [view article]
      Don't forget singapore. PE is 14, inflation is a shockingly low 1%, and growth is among the best. It's the new new york. A uniquely independent and mixed center of Asian business and culture and one of the most trusted markets in the world. Housing has always been expensive there and has not gone up much in the past 8 years. A fantastic place for the young and food lovers, it will continue to be a center of biomedical research and the business and cultural elite. What country has a better personality and looks so happily towards the future?

      Another bet similar to the Brazil play (good growth and net exporter of oil and food), Malaysia is in a similarly great situation with a 23% lower PE than Brazil and lower inflation and equal growth. Malaysia surprisingly (to me) has one of the most trusted markets in the world, better than Brazil and Australia. Malaysia also has better P/B and dividends. FSLR chose it as it's home for new high-tech solar plants. Also compare Malaysia to Thailand: similar PEs even after a recent 20% drop in Thailand, Thailand is oil-dependent, higher inflation, similar growth, less-trusted market, and current political risk. Only thing good about thailand is that it makes a lot of cars (for foreign companies) that could get sold to china.       Jun 26 12:45 PM
    • iPhone in China - What It Will Mean [view article]
      People don't usually get paid for the seeking alpha articles they submit. They're just Joe Schmos Jun 12 08:54 AM
    • Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings [view article]
      If c-Si degrades only 0.07% per year, then a good design could last as long as the electrical joints and glass cover hold up. 40 years would be only 3% below say 18% initial (assuming your 0.07% is in terms of absolute eff and not as a percentage of eff). Your a-Si is apparently percentage of the eff and not absolute eff.

      So this strengthens my and another posters point that you didn't address: it seems clear that CIGS can never beat c-Si for residential installs, and that c-Si residential is currently roughly cost-competitive with FSLR and CIGS when taking lifespan and install costs into account. One thing to remember about residential is that estimates for those install costs are something like 30% for batteries that aren't necessary and not included utility install costs.

      Using EEstor capacitors with today's c-Si and an EV is cheaper than using a gasoline combustion engine. At $5/Wp installed and 40 years, it's $0.057/kWh. With a 7% loan and mortgage interest tax deduction, that comes to $0.13/kWh and you don't have to worry about inflation in your electrical bill for things like carbon credits. If EEstor capacitors are sold this year as they claim, energy storage for overnight won't cost much more.       Jun 06 04:05 PM
    • Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings [view article]
      Steve, what is the lifespan of c-Si compared to AMAT, CdTe, and CIGS? If it's nearly double, then the nearly double cost/watt for c-Si comes out to be the same cost/kwh. $/kwh is what matters, not $/Wp. Then there's installation costs which are 1/2 as much for c-Si since it has nearly double the efficiency. Now consider that c-Si is more applicable for home installation for these reasons, which means there's not going to be a 40% loss in transmission since we're saying thin-film is mainly for the grid. Now consider the c-Si are currently growing faster than FSLR and that FSLR will not reduce its costs as much as c-Si in the next few years if price of Si goes down. Jun 06 12:06 PM
    • Electric Cars for 2010: Shift from Foreign Oil to Riding on Local Renewable Energy [view article]
      If EEStor produces it's capacitor this year as planned and as described, this article and all the comments above become irrelevant. Focus, people.

      An EV uses 1/4 the energy of a combustion-based vehicle of the same weight due to the inefficiency of the engine. If EEStor succeeds, today's solar cells with an EV would be cheaper than today's gasoline-powered vehicles. With lithium and carbon composites, it's also possible, except there's not enough lithium. There's plenty of barium and titanium for EEstor.       Jun 05 03:52 PM
    • Is the Malaysian Stock Market Due to Fall? [view article]
      Everyone above is being ridiculous. Malaysia will outperform if not stun in the next 10 years. It's a net-exporter of oil, food, and steel. Inflation is low. GDP growth is 7%. PE is 15. This beats the U.S. markets hands-down on all counts. Only Brazil can compare, except it has lower cost labor, more high tech companies are moving operations there, and it's in China/India's back yard. It's one of the most trusted markets in the world. May 30 11:32 AM
    • Global Stock Market Performance [view article]
      Singapore. Great place with great future. Extraordinarily diverse. Very high tech, including bio. A Western-friendly center of Asian business. Inflation is 1%. The current no-brainer in foreign markets. See EWS

      Malaysia. High Tech. Labor going to be less than China. Politically and socially very secure for foreign investment. Oil and food independent. 3% inflation. Similar future to Brazil, but better value right now. See EWM       May 22 01:23 PM
    • The Wind Beneath Trinity's Wings [view article]
      CPTC.OB is not exactly a "start up". It's more like a spin-off and merger with a strong German heritage. It has over 500 installed turbines with a unique gearing system in its upcoming model that doesn't require the fancy GE-patented electronics for frequency regulation. BCON.OB might also be considered a utility and wind-play. Its flywheels are going to be used in California to even out the voltage and frequency from wind farms as well as traditional plants especially where carbon credits are important. May 05 06:28 AM
    • Further Musings on Solar Stocks [view article]
      You wrote "FSLR has to build two panels in order to generate the same amount of electricity that a single poly-based panel will make." Do you have a link that shows poly modules will be 24% efficient in a few years? Do you have a good link that discusses the future of polysilicon prices? Apr 24 12:38 PM
    • When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There! [view article]
      Jack, stop fudging everything! 24*0.71/6= 2.666 so solar is "almost 3" and not "a little over 2" times more expensive per W installed than for coal. The real competitor that investors should be interested in is nuclear which is 24*.9/6= 3.6 times more nuclear energy per W installed over solar W installed. Apr 24 08:11 AM
    • Solar Power Will Be Transformational in the Next Decade [view article]
      Jack, you changed the input data to "prove" your point. We were talking about 13 cents/kWh and you're using a gracious "effective-effici... of 30 years instead of the standard 25 years. A 3rd source of fudging is that you didn't do APR correctly. Even with your gracious 30-year effective-efficiency-l... monthly payments would be $60, so the rate is 16.4 cents/kwh instead of 15.

      If you'll look at my comments, you'll see that i similarly found that $5.4/W is break even for 7% loan and if electricity costs rise 3% a year and if we can get a interest deduction, so we're not really in disagreement. I just want the math and assumptions to be correct and precise. Being off just 1 cent/kWh over 30 years is $3,900 on a 6 kW system (about $2000 in today's dollars when adjusted for inflation).       Apr 24 08:05 AM
    • When Will Solar Achieve Grid Parity? We're Already There! [view article]
      Jack, I got lucky and found a reference. It says coal operates at 71% of capacity and nuclear operates at 90%. 71% of 24 = 17 hours, almost 3 times more than solar cells in a 6 kWh/d/m^2 area.

      www.geo-energy.org/pub...

       Apr 23 04:27 PM
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