zawy

Serious Questions About Canadian Solar

The decrease in silicon cost does not change the importance of year over year earnings being 18% less (which they did not "keep a secret" as was implied by the author). What happens from here as Germany buys less and Chinese subsidies are gone?

Otherwise, CSIQ is my pick for beating FSLR over the long term.

1 GW manufacturing capability (equal to FSLR's actual production this year) and yet their market cap is 13 times lower than FSLR. Sure, FSLR has 3 times the profit margin and is growing faster, but the factor of 13 makes me wonder.

Trina Solar: First Solar Won’t Be Low-Cost Leader for Long

Road runner, yes, I left out the installation costs, but FSLR is so far ahead in $/W costs, that even with that disadvantage, they are able to stay ahead and will continue to do so for the currency, profit margin, and silicon glut reasons I mentioned. Silicon will stay ahead in efficiency, but it is not clear that silicon will have greater gains in terms of percent of current efficiency. Therefore it is not clear that silicon margins have more to look forward to in the future if we exclude installation costs. FSLR increased efficiency 5% this last quarter. You are clever to point out that as $/W decreases, installation costs become more important, but this assumes installation costs will not decrease as fast as efficiency. FSLR is currently targeting the largest installations which is to their disadvantage when it comes to installation costs. For a residential installation, the cost of contractors just showing up with equipment will be the same no matter how big the job. So installation in smaller jobs may be only be about 25% more for FSLR if they have to install 50% more square feet. The >20% efficiencies you cite are very expensive and the bulk of sales in silicon are <17%. The P/E valuation of FSLR is almost as good as the best silicon solars like CSIQ and TSL. In the last 1 to 2 years, the best Chinese solar P/Es have worsened going from about 5 to 20, while FSLR has improved from 150 to 20, eventhough silicon is cheaper. As silicon costs increase and RMB/dollar changes, I would not be surprised if FSLR P/E at the current market cap is 5 in 2 years and the best silicon solars are 50 to 100, with the rest not even making a profit. In comparison to the current trends, efficiency and installation are red herrings. The killer to FSLR's party is going to be tellurium, no later than end of 2012 if they continue to increase production 150% like they've been doing. But they should at the very least triple current production again and hold there for 10 years keeping the current profit margin as their capital expenses greatly decrease. My bet is that the drop in P/E will continue and it will look like a great buy in 1 to 2 years and then I'll sell before the negative tellurium announcements start trickling in. If rate of production increase slows, it will be a hold for 5 years. They may wisely slow installation of new lines in order to delay a runup in tellurium price from their own demand. heir tellurium costs could go from $0.03/W (?) to $0.30/W.

Trina Solar: First Solar Won’t Be Low-Cost Leader for Long

FSLR production has been increasing 150% yoy for the past 7 years and their P/E is 19. There's nothing "high-flying" about that. FSLR will also continue to decrease it manufacturing costs $/Wp at a similar pace, so it's questionable if TSL can catch up even if the silicon glut continues. TSL's $0.73/Wp not counting the silicon costs (the inaudible part in the transcript) is only a little lower than FSLR's $0.83/Wp total cost. As the dollar decreases in value to FSLR's advantage and the RMB increases to a fair value to Chinese solars' disadvantage, FSLR should stave off any Chinese solar threat for years to come. This assumes they can acquire the tellurium, which should be possible through 2012 as long as China drives higher copper production. Don't forget FSLR has nearly twice the profit margin as any Chinese solar even in the silicon glut so that FSLR can greatly lower costs in the event any unforeseen threat arises.

'Longer Term, Everyone Thinks Apple Is Going Higher'

Two on the show also said "with 9 analysts saying it will go higher, it makes you want to automatically sell." Last year blackberry users were saying they would never sacrifice a thumb-board. Now reviewers are saying they will not go back. It appears to me the game has already been won: software makers of all sizes are full steam ahead on producing programs for the iPhone. 2 years of profits form AT&T contracts are not even figured in yet and were double the reported profits. 5 times as many sales over the prior year, and the new device and lower prices were only in the last 2 weeks.

If any non-techie wants a good, simple pocket computer, this is it. they will choose iPhone.

People still have not come to terms with what a pocket computer really means, here's a partial list.
phone - calculator - calendar - email - notpad - contacts
stock tracker - trader
camera with video (soon teleconferencing)
TV with autoprogramming
compass - GPS - map - kid tracker/emergency response
wikipedia in your pocket
remote control of your desktop (VNC is easy and free)
yellow pages
piano, flute, inclinometer, ruler
weather - news - sports
language leaner - translation
...and oh BTW, it also has a good internet browser, GAMES, soon every book and magazine ever published, and MP3s.

Books, movies, magazines, teleconferencing, and MP3s provide another level of potential profit. Google with as an open source competitor across all devices will be 5 years years behind technically, and 10 years behind on bells and whistles and popularity. Blackberry niche is fading as fast as Palm and Nokia.

Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (10/23/08)

I agree with Ca Dan. So many sources use such crummy scaling of the data that graphs are usually useless without careful mental calculations. Fast Money for example is the worst.

Emerging Markets With Low Valuations

Malaysia is a play similar to Brazil: they have oil and food, and one of the safest markets, comparable to australia and singapore.

Global P&E Ratios and Dividend Yields

Are the P/E's in Europe low because people think the Euro is overvalued?

Crude Oil at $122 Is Good News for Refiners

VLO used to trade right with the price of oil. As oil went up, VLO went up twice as fast as its margin increased. Then above somewhere between 90 and 110, VLO started trading inversely. I don't get it.

Thailand: Is the Magic Gone for This Cinderella Story?

Rice was first grown in Thailand.

iPhone Can Replace Laptops for Majority of Computer Users

Notice that everyone who agreed with the article's premise owns an iPhone and knows from experience that what the aerticle says. None of those who disagreed indicated that they have even tried an iPhone. I've tried an iphone. I've seen other's change in laptop use from it. My estimate is that time-wise it replaces at least 50% of the laptop. 90% for some people. Personally, when i type i am usually goofing off like right now and would prefer a laptop. But when i'm doing real work, i'm usually just reading the internet.

Fundamental Analysis for Emerging Markets

Don't forget singapore. PE is 14, inflation is a shockingly low 1%, and growth is among the best. It's the new new york. A uniquely independent and mixed center of Asian business and culture and one of the most trusted markets in the world. Housing has always been expensive there and has not gone up much in the past 8 years. A fantastic place for the young and food lovers, it will continue to be a center of biomedical research and the business and cultural elite. What country has a better personality and looks so happily towards the future?

Another bet similar to the Brazil play (good growth and net exporter of oil and food), Malaysia is in a similarly great situation with a 23% lower PE than Brazil and lower inflation and equal growth. Malaysia surprisingly (to me) has one of the most trusted markets in the world, better than Brazil and Australia. Malaysia also has better P/B and dividends. FSLR chose it as it's home for new high-tech solar plants. Also compare Malaysia to Thailand: similar PEs even after a recent 20% drop in Thailand, Thailand is oil-dependent, higher inflation, similar growth, less-trusted market, and current political risk. Only thing good about thailand is that it makes a lot of cars (for foreign companies) that could get sold to china.

iPhone in China - What It Will Mean

People don't usually get paid for the seeking alpha articles they submit. They're just Joe Schmos

Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings

If c-Si degrades only 0.07% per year, then a good design could last as long as the electrical joints and glass cover hold up. 40 years would be only 3% below say 18% initial (assuming your 0.07% is in terms of absolute eff and not as a percentage of eff). Your a-Si is apparently percentage of the eff and not absolute eff.

So this strengthens my and another posters point that you didn't address: it seems clear that CIGS can never beat c-Si for residential installs, and that c-Si residential is currently roughly cost-competitive with FSLR and CIGS when taking lifespan and install costs into account. One thing to remember about residential is that estimates for those install costs are something like 30% for batteries that aren't necessary and not included utility install costs.

Using EEstor capacitors with today's c-Si and an EV is cheaper than using a gasoline combustion engine. At $5/Wp installed and 40 years, it's $0.057/kWh. With a 7% loan and mortgage interest tax deduction, that comes to $0.13/kWh and you don't have to worry about inflation in your electrical bill for things like carbon credits. If EEstor capacitors are sold this year as they claim, energy storage for overnight won't cost much more.

Why I'm Not Cutting Back Trina Solar before Earnings

Steve, what is the lifespan of c-Si compared to AMAT, CdTe, and CIGS? If it's nearly double, then the nearly double cost/watt for c-Si comes out to be the same cost/kwh. $/kwh is what matters, not $/Wp. Then there's installation costs which are 1/2 as much for c-Si since it has nearly double the efficiency. Now consider that c-Si is more applicable for home installation for these reasons, which means there's not going to be a 40% loss in transmission since we're saying thin-film is mainly for the grid. Now consider the c-Si are currently growing faster than FSLR and that FSLR will not reduce its costs as much as c-Si in the next few years if price of Si goes down.

Electric Cars for 2010: Shift from Foreign Oil to Riding on Local Renewable Energy

If EEStor produces it's capacitor this year as planned and as described, this article and all the comments above become irrelevant. Focus, people.

An EV uses 1/4 the energy of a combustion-based vehicle of the same weight due to the inefficiency of the engine. If EEStor succeeds, today's solar cells with an EV would be cheaper than today's gasoline-powered vehicles. With lithium and carbon composites, it's also possible, except there's not enough lithium. There's plenty of barium and titanium for EEstor.