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Ivo Cerckel
10 Comments
OPEC Will Assure Oil Prices Stay in a Reasonable Range
What is it that prevents the human mind to acknowledge the Truth when it discerns/sees the Truth?
Truth is ad-equation between the thing and the intellect, said Thomas Aquinas. (1)
In Saudi Arabia, inflation is at quarter-century high because the country pegs its riyal to the weak US dollar. (2)
As a result of Bush’s pleas to Saudi Arabia for OPEC, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, to lift its production ceiling
in order to bring down the price a oil which is now hovering at around 100 US dollar a barrel,
the Saudis seem to have adopted the “a friend in need is a pest” attitude. (3)
Why can’t observers conclude from this
that Saudi Arabia should de-peg the riyal from the US dollar
and
that OPEC should price its oil in another currency than the US dollar?
What is that prevents the mind from ad-equating itself to these facts?
Is it that, as Aristotle writes,
when human intelligence is confronted with the highest truths,
it is in the same situation as the bat who is dazzled by the light of the sun?
And guess what?
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city, that dropping the Gulf dollar peg would ease inflation. (4)
Hence,
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers are to meet on Saturday, March 5, to discuss continuing pegging their currencies to the dollar (5),
the next OPEC meeting being scheduled for Wednesday, March 5
Meanwhile,
the Iranian Oil Bourse opened on Sunday February 17.
The mystery concerning the Bourse remains however complete.
Indeed, we do not know in which currency oil is being traded on the Bourse.
Some sources say it’s the Iranian rial.
Others say indeed it’s the Russian ruble. (6)
Hence the importance of this Friday 21, 2008 International Herald Tribune-article.
Moscow deepens ties to Iran's energy sector (7)
SNIP
DUBAI: As the United States warns the world away from business with Tehran, Moscow is deepening its ties to Iran's energy sector, underscoring Russia's differences with Washington over Iranian nuclear plans and Kosovo's independence
What if it was gold
(which is no longer available in Fort Knox,
but is marked to market on a quarterly basis by the European Central Bank)?
Gold left last week for da moon!
We watch this new gold market together, yes?
Thank You
Another
6/29/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) (8)
Here’s a February 20 article of the Iranian News Agency which says
that Iran's Oil Exchange Market, which I suppose is not to be confused with the Iranian Oil Bourse, will be inaugurated on Wednesday February 27
and
that oil dealings on that Market will be based on euro or Iranian rial (9),
thus not based on ruble.
Still watching …
Ivo Cerckel
ivocerckel AT siquijor DOT ws
blogs.siliconindia.com.../
ENDNOTES
(1)
Conformity, con-FORM-ity, concerns only the form.
Ad-equation says that not only form,
but also the matter/substance/conte... of both the thing and the intellect must equalize.
(2)
Saudi inflation at quarter-century high
Dubai: Sat, 23 Feb 2008
www.tradearabia.com/NE...
SNIP
Saudi inflation hit 7 per cent in January, its highest level in more than a quarter century, as rents and food costs spurred price rises in the world's largest oil exporter for a ninth straight month.
Saudi Arabia has been grappling with inflationary pressures as the economy, the largest in the Arab world, booms on a near five-fold rise in oil prices since 2002 and because it pegs its riyal to the weak US dollar, pushing up some import costs.
(3)
From The Sunday Times
February 24, 2008
Sun shines on some as storm clouds gather over US economy
American Account
Irwin Stelzer
business.timesonline.c...
SNIP
Most important of all, Opec, which accounts for about 40% of world output, refuses to lift its production ceiling, despite personal pleas to the Saudis from Bush. The Saudis seem to have adopted the “a friend in need is a pest” attitude. Opec fears an economic slowdown will cut into demand, and that the dollar will fall further, reducing the purchasing power its cartel members receive in return for their oil.
(4)
Greenspan: Dropping Gulf Dollar Peg Would Ease Inflation
Monday, Feb. 25, 2008
JEDDAH/ABU DHABI
moneynews.newsmax.com/...
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday near-record Gulf Arab inflation would fall "significantly&qu... were the oil producers to drop their dollar pegs, in contradiction to Saudi policy.
+
Saudi and UAE central bank chiefs spoke in favour on Monday of retaining dollar pegs, while QATAR's prime minister advocated regional currency reform to avert possible unilateral revaluations designed to curb inflation.
(5)
GCC foreign ministers council to meet Saturday
www.kuna.net.kw/home/S...
RIYADH, Feb 25 (KUNA) -- The ministerial council of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers will hold their 106 meeting in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, under QATAR's chairmanship on Saturday March 1.
In a press statement on Monday, GCC Secretary-General Abdulrahman Al-Attiyah said this meeting held much significance as it will take place after the 28th GCC Leaders Summit in Doha which included announcing the establishment of the GCC's common market.
While saying discussions will include regional and international developments, he added that the meeting's sidelines will include a forum between GCC foreign ministers with their Yemenite counterpart as part of supporting development projects in Yemen. (end) ay.
ayh
(6)
Russian ruble could be used in oil trade deals in Iran - envoy
15:30 | 15/ 02/ 2008
en.rian.ru/world/20080...
MOSCOW, February 15 (RIA Novosti) - The Russian ruble could be used as a payment instrument for deals on an Iranian oil exchange, the Islamic Republic's ambassador to Moscow said on Friday.
"Possibly in the future, we'll be able to use the ruble, Russia's national currency, in our operations," Gholamreza Ansari said, adding that the Islamic Republic was currently busy launching a new oil trade exchange.
The Islamic Republic's oil minister, Gholam-Hossein Nozari, earlier said that Iran would launch on February 27 a commodities exchange for oil, petrochemicals and natural gas on the Persian Gulf island of Kish and that all financial settlements would be made in Iran's national currency, the rial.
(7)
Moscow deepens ties to Iran's energy sector
By Simon Webb and Amie Ferris-Rotman Reuters
Published: February 21, 2008
www.iht.com/articles/2...
DUBAI: As the United States warns the world away from business with Tehran, Moscow is deepening its ties to Iran's energy sector, underscoring Russia's differences with Washington over Iranian nuclear plans and Kosovo's independence
(8)
www.usagold.com/goldtr...
(9)
Russian expert says oil dealings in Iranian Oil Exchange Market soon
Moscow, Feb 20, IRNA
www2.irna.ir/en/news/v...
Head of Iran Contemporary Studies Center in Russia Rajab Safarov says in the coming months, Iran wants to privatize its oil companies, whose number is no more than 40, and start oil deals in Iran's Oil Exchange Market.
Safarov told Moscow-based daily Vermianovesti that Iran's Oil Exchange is a crucial body that is expected to leave a drastic impact on the world oil market.
He said in the market, oil dealings will be based on euro or Iranian rial.
+
Vermianovosti said Iran will inaugurate its Oil Exchange market on February 27.
It quoted Iranian Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari as saying the exchanges will be in rial and possibly euro and the Exchange will be located in Kish island in Persian Gulf.
The Iranian Oil Bourse: A Bourse with No Basis
Indeed, we do not know in which currency oil is being traded on the Bourse.
Some sources say it’s the Iranian rial.
Others say it’s the Russian ruble.
What if it was gold (which is no longer available in Fort Knox)?
The dollar did therefore not suffer on Monday nor Tuesday morning in Sydney. (1)
As Iran and Russia can however rid the world of the dollar's slavery (2),
the Los Angeles Times said on Tuesday that the dollar is suffering in China (3)
"The dollar rally on Monday turned out to be a one-day wonder, as currency markets shifted their focus back to the risks of the U.S. economy," wrote Boris Schlossberg, senior strategist at DailyFX. (4)
Gold left for da moom!
We watch this new gold market together, yes?
Thank You
Another
6/29/98 ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) (5)
Ivo Cerckel
blogs.siliconindia.com.../
ENDNOTES
(1)
Forex - US dollar higher on short-covering
www.hemscott.com/news/...)
(2)
Sunday, February 17, 2008
www.iranmania.com/News... irs
LONDON, February 17 (IranMania) - Iran's Ambassador to Moscow said Iran and Russia, as major energy suppliers, can rid the world of US dollar's slavery by promoting oil and gas deals using different currencies, IRNA reported.)
(3)
A sinking feeling for the dollar in China
By Don Lee, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
February 19, 2008
www.latimes.com/busine...)
(4)
Dollar pressured by U.S. economy fears
Last update: 5:03 p.m. EST Feb. 19, 2008
www.marketwatch.com/ne...
(5)
www.usagold.com/goldtr...
The Iranian Oil Bourse: A Bourse with No Basis
By Don Lee, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
February 19, 2008
www.latimes.com/busine...
SNIP
He Bin, manager of Zhejiang Hexin Toy Co., an export company based in Zhejiang province, collects about $1 million in U.S. dollars every month from his overseas customers. As recently as 2006 -- when the yuan appreciated just 3.25% over the entire year against the dollar -- he didn't worry about quickly converting that money to yuan. His finance department usually went to the foreign currency section once a month. He figured any extra dollars in hand could be used to buy imported materials.
"But nowadays, if we get the money in the morning, we go to the bank and convert it in the afternoon," he said, adding that he faced an even bigger headache when it came to negotiating orders.
"Just a couple days ago, one Japanese client ordered 280,000 wooden toys from us, over $500,000 in U.S. dollars or about 4 million renminbi. . . . But the products aren't due until June and July this year. And they want us to sign the contract in U.S. dollars," he said. "It's very likely that we won't be able to make any money."
"I wish I could only be paid in renminbi and get rid of my U.S. dollars as soon as possible."
The Iranian Oil Bourse: A Bourse with No Basis
Is there any gold left in Fort Knox?
Contrast this to the euro for example, whose manager, the European Central Bank, marks its gold reserves to market on a quarterly basis.
Ivo Cerckel
blogs.siliconindia.com...
Stop Writing Eulogies for the Dollar
Are you not overlooking the fact that The Economist says in the second article that the dollar has lost its status as a store of value - at least, recently.
(“Losing faith in the greenback”, The Economist, December 01, 2007. 77, p. 78)
David Woo Defends the Oil Price Denomination Fallacy
(1)
“Losing faith in the greenback”, The Economist, December 01, 2007. 77, p. 78
(2)
Time to replace the US dollar as default reserve currency
..local consultant calls for new monetary standard
By Raffiqe Shah
Trinidad and Tobago Express
Wednesday, December 5th 2007
www.trinidadexpress.co...
(3)
That old stagflation dilemma again
By Samuel Brittan
Financial Times, December 6 2007 19:33 | Last updated: December 6 2007 19:33
www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b9f...
(4)
UAE could cut rates further
By Ahmed A. Elewa, Staff Reporter
Gulf News: December 06, 2007, 21:21
www.gulfnews.com/busin...
Abu Dhabi: The UAE Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates further, in line with the US Federal Reserve's moves, following the latest rate cut, a senior official said.
(5)
Peg will stay, but GCC leaves doors open
By Barbara Bibbo'Correspondent
Gulf News, December 05, 2007, 00:09
archive.gulfnews.com/a...
(6)
No need for revaluation - Al Suwaidi
Reuters
Published: December 05, 2007, 23:14
www.gulfnews.com/busin...
Frankfurt: The UAE central bank said yesterday it would leave its dollar peg unchanged for the "foreseeable future" after Gulf rulers agreed to KEEP
any currency reform talks SECRET to calm markets.
(7)
Iran gets over 85 pct oil income in non-US currencies
TEHRAN, Oct 2 (Reuters)
uk.reuters.com/article...
(8)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Iran is planning to open a commodity exchange, variously referred to as the Iran Petroleum Exchange, International Oil Bourse or Iranian Oil Bourse.
+
The exchange has not yet opened, having missed at least three announced opening dates.
Although opening an oil bourse has so far been unsuccessful, Iran has had success in asking its
petroleum customers to pay in non-dollar currencies. As of October 3, 2007, Iran currently receives non-dollar currencies for 85% of its oil exports with euros composing 65% and yen 20%. Iran is currently planning on moving the remaining 15% of dollar denominated oil exports to other currencies such as the United Arab Emirates dirham.
(9)
Iran: Why does Bush invoke the threat of World War III?
Part 3: Globalization, Iran, and the dollar crisis
By Alex Lantier
3 December 2007
www.wsws.org/articles/...
(10)
Ahmadinejad proposes formation of OPEC bourse
Riyadh, Nov 18, IRNA
Iran-Saudi Arabia-Ahmadinejad
www2.irna.ir/en/news/v...
SNIPS
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday that devaluation of US dollar has left negative impacts on OPEC and global economy.
+
The Iranian president called for drawing up of a comprehensive plan for OPEC and establishment of an specialized bank called "OPEC Bank" to safeguard the hard currencies of OPEC member states.
David Woo Defends the Oil Price Denomination Fallacy
I cannot read the contracts, so I don’t have all the premises for my judgement.
In such an environment, I can only continue to follow the movements of the troika of euro/dollar, gold and oil to determine whether something has fundamentally changed (in fact) which, the change, would then be made official later.
Felix is saying that if the chances of oil being denominated in anything other than dollars are slim, then the chances of the dollar losing its reference-currency status in world trade more generally are infinitesimal.
The quoted article from The Economist says that the dollar has lost its status as a store of value
- at least, recently.
The idea that there is some safer haven basket of currencies that stands as a viable and sustainable alternative to US Dollar exclusivity is however largely wishful thinking, says Georealist.
So we face …
Ivo Cerckel
ivocerckel AT squijor DOT ws
David Woo Defends the Oil Price Denomination Fallacy
The problem is that we don’t know in what currency oil is being traded. We don’t know the currency in which oil contracts say they should be settled.
The reason is that the Gulf rulers agreed at the GCC Summit to KEEP any currency reform talks SECRET to calm markets. (6)
Iran, which was invited at the GCC Summit, is said to obtain already 85% of its oil revenues in euro. (7)
The Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB) which would sell oil in non-dollar currencies, mainly the euro, was supposed to have opened in March 2006, among other dates.
Wikipedia says the IOB has not yet opened. (8)
Alex Lantier said earlier this week that the IOB had opened in March 2006 which explains why the dollar is collapsing. (9)
On 30 November 2007, I wrote on my blog
blogs.siliconindia.com...
under "Exit doors to rupee appreciation"
that Iranian President Ahmadinejad had proposed the
creation of an Oil Bourse by OPEC at the OPEC Summit in Riyadh on November !7 and 18 2007. (10)
This OPEC Bourse should not to be confused with the OPEC Bank.
Whether the OPEC Oil Bourse should be confused with the Iranian Oil Bourse, I don’t know.
David Woo Defends the Oil Price Denomination Fallacy
Felix is saying that if the chances of oil being denominated in anything other than dollars are slim, then the chances of the dollar losing its reference-currency status in world trade more generally are infinitesimal.
Both of you are forgetting that,
as Asia has surpluses,
while the US of A has deficits,
Asian central banks have to accumulate dollars in order to prevent their currencies from going through the roof.
Both of you are also failing to distinguish between the dollar as an international means of exchange and the dollar as a reserve currency.
Reserves are held to buttress confidence in a currency, not as a float to global trading. As a backstop, reserves need to be easily convertible (so they can be used as an emergency source of liquidity) and a store of value, The dollar, with its large and liquid capital markets, meets the first criterion even if it has failed the second - at least, recently. Thus spake the December, 1st, 2007 The Economist. (1)
The December 5, 2007, Trinidad and Tobago Express, which was also confusing this distinction between the dollar as an international means of exchange and the dollar as a reserve currency, reminded us that the US is only the reserve currency BY DEFAULT. (2) A challenger, the euro, has however arisen.
Writing in December 07, 2007, Financial Times, Samuel Britan says that
the long-term stability of the late 19th century was not, of course, due to government measures but was the semi-automatic effect of the international gold standard. (3)
After the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) at its Summit earlier this week decided to keep the currencies of its members pegged to the US of A dollar, Gulf News newspaper says this Friday morning that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates further, in line with the US Federal Reserve's moves, following the latest rate cut. (4)
Understanding The Dollar's Decline
“
The Fall of the Dollar Wall and the SWF Wall. The return of honest money.
The bankruptcy of the fractional-reserve banking system, and its anchor, the U.S. dollar, was displayed this week. Return to honest money will be the subject of the week which starts tomorrow, Monday.
Shock revelations from U.S. banks Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch - which between them have lost more than dollar 20bn on sub-prime mortgages and other instruments – and denial of rumours by British bank Barclays that it is about to take a sterling 10bn write-down have revealed this week how bankrupt the world’s fractional-reserve banking system, which allows banks to create money out of thin air, is.
Richard Wachman argues in today’s London OBSERVER that it is too early to say whether the dollar is permanently losing its status as the world's leading currency. (1)
The issue of SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS (SWFs) – which invest money on behalf of resource and capital rich countries, including China and Middle Eastern nations – is dominating the debate.
Edmund Conway argues in today’s London SUNDAY TELEGRAPH that the West had a direct hand in creating SWFs and state-owned companies, After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Western governments and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), endowed with extra authority and credibility by the fall of communism, lectured Asian economies to follow their example and open up their markets to an unfettered flow of capital. The inevitable boom was followed by a terrible bust after speculators attacked the Thai baht in 1997. When the countries engulfed in the Asian financial crisis then turned to the IMF, it lent money only with certain onerous conditions, including spending cuts and tax increases; these, it has recently admitted, made matters worse and caused years of economic misery. (2)
Ramkishen S Rajan, Associate Professor, School of Public Policy, George Mason University, Virginia, wants the Asian financial crisis to occur all over again.
He argued in yesterday’s BUSINESS STANDARD that it may be time for India to reconsider its exchange management practices and increase its risk-taking appetite. India should, says Rajan, at least actively participate in the ongoing -- though nascent -- international dialogue of establishing a code of best practices/ behavioural guidelines for the creation, management and operation of SWFs. (3)
Rajan wants the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) thus to view its gold reserves not as backings of the Gold Rupee, but as investment vehicles. Investment vehicles in dollar, I suppose.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson,
who is too smart a man to be forgetting that on August, 15, 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon broke the post-World-War II Bretton Woods Agreement,
was therefore saying on Friday that the dollar is world currency "for a reason". Paulson went on to put the U.S. economy up against any in the world in terms of competitiveness. (4)
Paulson is also too smart a man to be ignorant of the fact that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is holding next week the Third (5) Summit its history in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and that the dollar will be discussed there. The week-long event culminates with a meeting of the heads of state of OPEC's 13 member countries on November, 17 and 18. (6)
Meanwhile, oil expert Dr. Talal Al-Bathali blames rising prices on the plummeting U.S. dollar and is urging OPEC to mull the adoption of the euro as pricing currency for oil exports.
However, Al-Bathali considers this option to be unfeasible from the political perspective as most the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members have special relations to the United States. (7)
Rising oil prices are thus due to the sinking dollar, but OPEC is, due to its allegiance to the U.S., being prevented from switching to a honest currency.
There is hope, however!
Commenting on the Gulf currencies which are pegged to the dollar, GULF NEWS was writing yesterday that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)’s strategy of sticking their currencies to the dollar has cost - and is still costing - their economies dearly.
The article concludes that since life must go on, the dollar must be abandoned in order to enable it to sink alone. (8)
This week displayed the bankruptcy of the fractional-reserve banking system and its anchor, the U.S. dollar, which gave rise to SWFs after the fall of the Berlin War in 1989.
Next week will mark the return to honest money.
OPEC will stop trading oil in U.S. dollar and start trading oil in yuan, yen, rupee or euro.
This will be decided at the Third OPEC Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Hence, The Wall Street Journal was predicting on Saturday “High Drama, if Not More Oil (for yuan, yen, rupee or euro)” next week in Riyadh. (9)
Ivo Cerckel
ivocerckel AT siquijor DOT ws
blogs.siliconindia.com...
ENDNOTES
(1)
Richard Wachman
The Observer
Sunday November 11 2007
www.guardian.co.uk/bus...
(2)
West's credit crunch born when Berlin Wall fell
By Edmund Conway
Last Updated: 10:36pm GMT 10/11/2007
www.telegraph.co.uk/mo...
(3)
Ramkishen S Rajan
Should India create a Sovereign Wealth Fund?
November 10, 2007
in.rediff.com/money/20...
www.business-standard....
(4)
Fri Nov 9, 2007 6:10pm EST
www.reuters.com/articl...
By David Lawder and Mark Felsenthal
WASHINGTON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Friday defended the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, saying the U.S. economy's strength, openness and competitiveness would "shine through" the current market turmoil.
"The dollar has been the world's reserve currency since World War II and it's been that for a reason. We are the biggest economy in the world, we are as open as any economy to investment, to trade, and we've had stable economic policies ... we've had good productivity," Paulson told reporters at an impromptu news briefing on Friday.
(5)
The first summit was held in Algeria in 1975, months after the world's first oil-price shock. The second was hosted by Venezuela in 2000
(6)
UPDATE: Oil Currency Basket Not On OPEC Summit Agenda-Official
Friday November 9th, 2007 / 10h36
www.easybourse.com/Web...
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Leaders and ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have no formal plans to discuss the possibility of creating a currency basket to price oil produced by member countries at their next meeting, a source said Friday.
"The currency basket is not on the agenda but it doesn't mean that ministers won't discuss the impact of the (U.S.) dollar," an official familiar with the summit agenda told Dow Jones Newswires Friday.
Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez has said in recent days that such a proposal was being considered and would be discussed at an OPEC heads of state summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia next week.
(7)
Oil expert blames rising prices on plummeting US dollar
KUWAIT, Nov 6 (KUNA)
www.kuna.net.kw/home/S...
[Oil expert Dr. Talal] Al-Bathali urged the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to mull adoption of Euro as pricing currency for oil exports.
"This could be the most proper option for the OPEC members," he asserted.
"However, this option is unfeasible from the political perspective as most the GCC members have special relations to the United States," he regretted.
(8)
Sinking with the dollar
By Walid Al Saqaf, Special to Gulf News
Published: November 09, 2007, 23:39
www.gulfnews.com/opini...
Plans to establish a common GCC currency by 2010 have apparently been put on hold because of one serious problem facing the economies of the region: the pegging to the US dollar. The depreciation of the greenback against all major currencies of the world in the past few years has triggered alarm bells in the offices of GCC finance ministers who are helplessly watching their currencies sink with the dollar.
+
It seems that the GCC strategy of sticking to the old greenback has cost - and is still costing - their economies dearly.
+
The reality is that the US economy is suffering and living standards there are declining. Why should the GCC take it as its example and leave its people to a similar fate?
If the interest of GCC citizens lies in securing more stable currencies and adopting economic change, and if abandoning the dollar and letting it sink alone is important to achieve this goal, so be it. Life must go on.
(9)
High Drama, if Not More Oil,
Expected as OPEC Gathers
By NEIL KING JR.
November 10, 2007; Page A2
online.wsj.com/article...