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Canuck Economist

Canuck Economist
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For The 'January Effect'? [View article]
    Dear Jeff, many thanks for your weekly letters; always great reading lots of ideas and interesting links.

    Have two suggested topics: opportunities re those affected by oil price drop for 2015 (there will be impacts on suppliers e.g., oil drilling specialists, as well as on users of oil e.g., transportation companies); what about a refresher on who wins and loses once interest rates start to reverse once more? When is the 10 year bond going to start climbing again?

    The question on the impact of oil on Canada: thought the blogger's analysis was not so great. In my view, the overall impact will be positive for Canada but certain regions stand to win others to lose. Alberta will be in rough shape as the government has not prepared for a rainy day and will have to respond to lower investment levels. Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Nova Scotia with larger populations and less capital intensive industries than oil will be experiencing the combined benefit of the equivalent to a tax cut from lower retail oil prices (increases demands for Canadian goods domestically and in the US, our main market); with a Canadian dollar that is roughly 20% lower than a year ago (some of it related to the oil price drop, the balance related to poorer Canadian economic performance vs. US.) this combination will lift economic activity and jobs quite nicely over the next three or four years that prices are likely to stay low for; and may help to sustain demand for housing.
    Jan 6, 2015. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shiller Data Suggest A Bear Market Could Be Looming [View article]
    Jason, good note. I agree and probably there are many of us that are doing exactly what you describe, which is why prices have not gone down much. The adjustments to QE will be gradual; companies have borrowed a lot of this money to pay dividends and purchase shares as cost of borrowing is so very low and it will take time to digest these loans regardless of the part of the cycle we are in. As the fed stops money injections rates will gradually increase and will start to reflect the private economy's supply-demand once more. The 3-5 years you noted seem adequate time for adjustment and end of this cycle.
    Oct 3, 2014. 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks Is Still A Challenge To Its Rivals [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Although the article sounds like an advertisment, they really performed well; and the numbers show it. I really like this stock; reminds me of McDonalds in its early days. I expect that at this time next year, we shall be looking at another 20% increase in price as sales and earnings continue to grow with a growing US economy; world economy is a risk but not even close a reason to sell at this point.
    Aug 3, 2014. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    So you could not sleep. Sounded like a good long-term investment portfolio to me. You then decided to become a trader - timing the big top.

    But now you have to figure out when you will get back in and what shares you will buy - the real downturn may not come until the year after the next presidential election. How will you sleep now?

    Sounds to me that it is time you consider having a professional manage your holdings. Hopefully then you might be able to sleep better.

    Aug 3, 2014. 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An End To Our Relationship With Yahoo, A New Era For Equity Research [View article]
    I generally don't use yahoo for primary info except for quotes. I like and follow selected SA authors and subscribe to them. I would like to be able to negatively select some others that write baloney. I will continue to read SA for now.
    Aug 2, 2014. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Falling Comparable Restaurant Sales Worry Chipotle Investors This Quarter? [View article]
    Andrew, evidently you have a negative perspective on this. Not sure where you got your projections either on existing sales or on store openings. I think I will hold on to my shares for a few more years. According to a recent article by the Motley Fool, the shares have returned about 30% a year since inception. Wish I have bought more.
    Jul 18, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Production Surges To Record High, Demand Growth Tepid [View article]
    many thanks.
    Jun 5, 2014. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Production Surges To Record High, Demand Growth Tepid [View article]
    Great chart Gigem77! Thanks. Did you capture yourself or can I go get that somewhere?

    I agree with your conclusion. Your chart gives a very good sense of where the price trend is headed, though higher than previous three years.
    Jun 4, 2014. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Production Surges To Record High, Demand Growth Tepid [View article]
    Sumit Roy, thanks for your article. I like your analysis in terms of available data on supply and demand; it helps that you frame the analysis well. Only then can we start thinking about the marginal users and suppliers.
    Jun 3, 2014. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Production Surges To Record High, Demand Growth Tepid [View article]
    Agree that it is a crossroad but not a big one; I think people are expecting a high injection so you would think that the price would already reflect that. I think the price is sticky for two reasons; the first is that we have a historic low inventories due to the historically low temperatures this winter and one would expect prices to remain higher than normal until the risk of low inventories is past us. The second reason is that natural gas producers had a very good go this winter and cash should be at healthy levels i.e., no desperate laggards at the moment - the price is determined at the margin. The capitulation moment will come next winter when faced with a normal or a mild winter, the producers will start competing once more - there will be marginal producers that will wish they had sold the gas about now.

    Once we see another record injection this week followed by another high next week, some of those marginal producers might realize that they may want to start bringing additional gas at a lower price..and then the speculators will head for the exits. But then again, they might not.
    Jun 3, 2014. 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Montreal's Earnings Call May Be Lone Bright Spot On Bleakest Of Horizons [View article]
    Churn, you are welcome to move to Canada, we do like Americans, despite all we complain about the US govt (no matter who is in). Only thing is that you will need to be polite eh, if you are going to be like us in here (no calling people assholes to their face, not even the nsa).
    May 27, 2014. 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Montreal's Earnings Call May Be Lone Bright Spot On Bleakest Of Horizons [View article]
    All good points Sugar Charlie. I would add that Canadian banks also have shorter term mortages (maximum 25years) and lower interest risk; as mortage interest is renegotiated every 5 years. BMO also has an upside in its new BMO-Harris Bank; this could be a very good growth rate as Canadian Banks tend to have a culture of service that is superior to US Banks; and a recovering American economy.

    May 27, 2014. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Crushed By Huge Injection But Bullish Fundamentals Remain In Place [View article]
    I just read that the Russia-China natural gas deal is estimated at $3.50 per mcf, over 30 years. I have been assuming that north-American exports would start flowing shortly and quickly increasing in volume over 5 years. Is this now wrong? What does the deal mean for North-American exports and prices?
    May 22, 2014. 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Exploit The Coming Natural Gas Export Explosion: Frank Curzio [View article]
    Philhtur and others, I take your point about this being an investment for the long term, although it was John Manyard Keynes who noted that in the long run we are all dead. There are many better opportunities out there. and I agree with what one of you pointed out regarding the probability of a market correction.

    As far as natural gas goes, for the next five years at least, the price (which is set at the margin) will not be set by gas exports, the capacity to export sufficient gas is not there and I would argue will not be there for at least 5-10 years! in an optimistic world - yes, by all means Cheniere and others including Chevron will do well in the interim because of this very fact.

    As for the price of oil; what sort of premium do you attach to the price of oil given the situation in Eastern Europe? We are unlikely go to war over this so you will see a drop in oil soon enough. Canada too has an over supply of oil and has unsuccessfully and I feel unwisely been trying to find an outlet into the US market (Keystone Pipeline imbroglio); once the oil gets to market, price will come down some more. Price resistance is there already. Coal is unlikely to go higher.

    So, this is why they say that there are two sides to every transaction - there are always the market boosters such as Mr. Curzio, and I am sure he believes his case. I don't ; I hope this clarifies my perspective.
    May 10, 2014. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Exploit The Coming Natural Gas Export Explosion: Frank Curzio [View article]
    I am not impressed; we do not have prospects for exports of significant quantities to anywhere really (no govt approval and no real export capacity in place), so the American market remains driven by its own supply and demand. The price of oil is barely holding at 90 dollar level at a time when geopolitical risk in Europe is high. The price of coal remains quite competitive. North-American winter is over and production seems healthy and storage levels are climbing quite well. No price explosion here so where is the compelling case to invest in this industry!

    Oh yes, the interviewee does not own any of the shares mentioned.hmmm.
    May 9, 2014. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment