Canuck Economist

3 Comments

    • Bear Market In Its Final Stages? [view article]
      No way Joseh! You have just gone through the stimulative government checks which your govt timed slightly ahead of the election. You have lost half a million jobs and there will be more to come now that the stimulative package has gone by. Your government cannot afford to keep spending and will be forced by financial markets to either cut expenditures or increase taxes.

      Just like one would expect a stimulative package pre-election you should expect the tough medicine just after one. I think this is not the time to go buy stocks; it is time to be prudent. The mood does not look good from where I stand, investors will figure out that they need to crop their riskier bets. I don't know about you, but I will wait to see a solid panic sell-off.       Sep 07 09:33 PM
    • Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble? [view article]
      Wow! Lots of fertilizer in these comments!

      I wonder if some of you are still puffing your stock so the poor little investors get in while some of you are getting out!

      Yes, get in now buy high! buy high!

      Yes, you are probably investing the money you got left from having just sold banks!

      I think the author is right to raise the question; at some pt. the commodities buble will pop; maybe not tomorrow, but pop it will. Does this market look past its peak? Looking risky to me!       Apr 24 11:42 PM
    • Has the Dollar Hit Bottom? [view article]
      Good article; Purchasing Power Parity does have the US dollar as undervalued. However, the Canadian dollar remained undervalued for years until now!

      I think we need to consider the fundamentals. The US is currently on or before the point that Canada was in during 1994 when the government allowed a current account, balance of payment and government spending deficits - the triple deficit. We fixed it; at the cost of a lot of economic pain to Canadians! You do not have to be an economist to understand that a country, like a household, cannot continue to spend more than it earns for extended periods of time before lenders stop lending, and God help you if they decide the want to call their loans! China needs to do its part - trying to maintain its currency on a similar track as the US dollar is in is simply untenable - they are just rising higher so the fall will be bigger; it will not be a soft landing for them if this needs to be resolved by crisis!

      Bottom line, I believe things will continue to get worse in the US until the people (thus the government) decide to get serious. US citizens are very similar to Canadians, they will demand change once they start suffering the consequences of government innaction - which by the way was also worse during conservative govt here much as is happening in the US. Address the Deficits; address the structural imbalances and the govt miss-incentives e.g. agricultural; etc.

      The positive side: once the going gets tough and the tough get going, you will too get back to economic sanity. Canada is now in great finanacial health - now all stripes of govt are fiscally conservative; we improved incentives e.g., employment insurance and we are now cutting taxes while running surpluses. This will eventually happen in the US also but I just do not see Americans paying attention yet. I believe the US will continue deteriorating until citizens say enough! That will be the bottom - I give this two years.       Nov 17 08:27 PM
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