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Canuck Economist

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  • Should Falling Comparable Restaurant Sales Worry Chipotle Investors This Quarter? [View article]
    Andrew, evidently you have a negative perspective on this. Not sure where you got your projections either on existing sales or on store openings. I think I will hold on to my shares for a few more years. According to a recent article by the Motley Fool, the shares have returned about 30% a year since inception. Wish I have bought more.
    Jul 18, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle: Great Growth, Bad Price [View article]
    Timothy, I am not sure that we can invest on the basis of your article and make money - the practice you suggest is like driving with an eye on the rear view mirror.

    You presented information to the effect that the company is conservatively financed, that it has consistently grown - even through recessions and that it is managed in a shareholder friendly way. THAT is what provides price protection.

    Yes the market corrects from time to time; recessions tend to knock the winds out of all stocks; however, solid companies with no debt and consistent growth and good management usually keep or quickly recover their value. If that does not give you protection, I do not know what does.

    Waiting for a drop in earnings per share ratio may take a while for this company - the economy is on the upswing and it is likely to keep growing without a hitch well into the foreseeable future. Mathematically, if the company continues to grow at around 20% per year, it is perfectly possible that the company may reach its next 35xP/E ratio in future at a higher price than we now have.

    PS - I do not hold a position on this company at this time.
    Dec 31, 2013. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle: Where Is The Top? [View article]
    Matt, your analysis left me cold. Everything you say about the company is actually quite positive; I almost thought you were a booster in disguise.

    Your main point is that it does not fit the rule-of-thumb that has served you well in the past; you do not explain the conceptual basis for the rule or why it has served you well.

    So, if the company continues to grow at the 21.5% for another 10 years how big would that be? what does that imply for the share price three years hence.

    I have done well with this company to date and I am sure there is a correction down the road but will hold on for a while longer - I keep hoping they will push for an international expansion but I like their noodles restaurant idea in the meantime - I think it has legs. Give that segment four years and we will be looking at a lot of additional capital gains on share price.
    Oct 13, 2013. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chipotle Is Starting To Get Pricey Again [View article]
    Dear team: although there is some value in your analysis, I am afraid that it is like driving by looking at the rear-view mirror. I am long on CMG because it has lots of growth potential and have been generating lots of cash flow to grow the business. They have an edge over others in the quality of their food - I look for quality in everything I buy including the stock market. Perhaps you are right in terms of short term trading but if one is investing for the long-term, the recent drop in price represents the best buying opportunity in the next two years.
    Having said the above, I will look for other analyses you have done and future posts; we will let results reveal how you stack up to your competitor analysts over the next little bit. I will store your analysis and we will look at it after CMG reports for the year.
    Jan 10, 2013. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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