cjwirth

Countering Those Anti-Peak Oil Types

Global oil production peaked in 2008 and is now in terminal decline. The evidence is clear. During the period 2004 to 2008, as oil prices climbed, all oil producers were pumping at maximum effort with historically high oil prices. During this period, oil production remained flat, peaked a bit in July 2008 and then began to decline while oil prices were very high and before the October global economic collapse, as documented here: survivingpeakoil.blogs...

and the depletion picture is far worse than Simmons indicated: survivingpeakoil.blogs...

and this government and scientific research too: www.peakoilassociates....

Natural Gas: America's Energy Salvation

Regarding the future potential for natural gas as a replacement for gasoline and diesel:

HOUSTON CHRONICLE
August 31, 2009
A little shale gas skepticism from Matt Simmons

This weekend we reported on a perspective that the oil industry's 150th anniversary may be the beginning of a natural gas era in the U.S., thanks to the lower CO2 releases from the fuel and the abundance of gas-bearing shale.

Matt Simmons, (he of Twilight in the Desert) believes the excitement of huge domestic reserves of natural gas in shale is overblown and outright incorrect.

"In the 40 years I've followed the industry I've been continuously amazed at the tangent people are willing to go off on without any data, or by getting the data wrong," Simmons said.

When producers tap natural gas in shale formations the output is very high at first, with as much as 70 percent of the reserves tapped in the first year, Simmons said. Another 20 percent of the total is tapped in the second year while the remaining 10 percent, in theory, plays out over the next decade or more.

Simmons simply doesn't believe all the gas is there that many believe and that the process of getting at it - the water-intensive hydraulic fracturing method - is a huge waste of otherwise drinkable water. A report linking contaminated drinking water to the process could be troubling for the procedure, he says.

"I don't think natural gas will be this bridge fuel to the future," Simmons said. "I don't think the reserves will ever prove up enough to make them viable in the long term."

blogs.chron.com/newswa...

And see:

www.theoildrum.com/nod...

And the EIA concludes much the same, see the section "Substitution of Natural Gas for Petroleum Consumption" a little more than half way down the page:

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/a...

and then these data about how fast oil supply reduction is occurring for the U.S:

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

The capital for natural gas conversions and supply infrastructure will disappear as oil supply reduction impacts the U.S. economy.

And these article do not even take into account declining oil supplies and how that will impact the economy:

seekingalpha.com/insta...

www.commodityonline.co...

www.guardian.co.uk/wor...

And the IEA indicates that "the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010:"

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

Best regards,

Cliff Wirth

What the IEA Doesn't Want You to Know About Peak Oil

Mr. Birol, Chief Economist at the International Energy Agency has misinformed the public by indicating that global oil production will peak in the in the long term future.

The global oil production plateau from 2004 to 2008 is clear evidence of the peak. As oil prices climbed during this period, oil production leveled off. For more detail, see:

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

And the situation is more dire than Mr. Birol indicates:

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

www.peakoilassociates....

Don’t Bet on a V-Shaped Economic Recovery

The reduction in oil supplies that is now underway ensures that there will be no economic recovery -- ever: survivingpeakoil.blogs...

Peak Oil for Dummies

Regarding the future potential for natural gas as a replacement for gasoline and diesel, see this comment:

www.theoildrum.com/nod...

and the EIA concludes much the same, see the section "Substitution of Natural Gas for Petroleum Consumption" a little more than half way down the page:

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/a...

and then these data about how fast oil supply reduction is occurring for the U.S:

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

The capital for natural gas conversions and supply infrastructure will disappear as oil supply reduction impacts the U.S. economy.

And these article do not even take into account declining oil supplies and how that will impact the economy:

seekingalpha.com/insta...

www.commodityonline.co...

www.guardian.co.uk/wor...

And the IEA indicates that "the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010:"

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

Best regards,

Cliff Wirth

Peak Oil for Dummies

This is an OK soft intro, here is the real thing:

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

www.peakoilassociates....

Book Review: 'Game Over' by Stephen Leeb

Alternative energy is a myth: www.peakoilassociates....

Time to prepare for Peak Oil impacts: survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Pondering the Fate of an Oil Exporter: Squandering One's Inheritance Cheaply

Good article. but is is based on a VERY COMMON MYTH:

"if one had converted the built-up years of oil revenue to new productive capacity in energy."

The problem is that renewable energy is a myth.

Renewables yield electric energy and 80 years of trying and no easy way to convert this into powering tractors, combines, trucks, ships, and airplanes. Likewise, algae oil and veggie oils are a myth in terms of solving the liquid fuels crisis.

Wake up folks, time to prepare for Peak Oil impacts.

Documented here:
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../
www.peakoilassociates....

Five Reasons to Invest in Agriculture

Hao Gin is right!

And this is not the time to invest in gold and silver: survivingpeakoil.blogs...

And the dollar is not safe:
survivingpeakoil.blogs...

Oil Rises Again: What Does it Mean?

Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, water supply, waste water treatment, and automated building systems.

Documented here:
www.peakoilassociates....
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Five Predictions for This Market

As Peak Oil kicks in the economy will continue to decline: survivingpeakoil.blogs...

Is Gold Really a Safe Haven?

Gold is the new bubble. It will burst when there is a rush to sell, and the old cushion of jewelry and electronic use/demand is gone. As the old Chinese saying goes: what goes up like a rocket comes down like a rocket.

The old economy of good times is gone forever, see this: survivingpeakoil.blogs...

Is Alternative Energy Dead?

Many years ago, many people thought the earth was flat, most everyone said it was so. Later in human history, there was belief in alternative energies, nearly everyone said it was so. But upon further examination, it was revealed to be just another myth. Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D.
www.peakoilassociates....
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Does the International Energy Agency Want Oil to Go Higher?

It is likely that the IEA knows what most studies indicate, we are at Peak Oil production now and on the decline. If OPEC cuts at the same time, we will have a double whammy and oil prices will go very, very high again. This would be followed by another severe economic downturn. This is not good for the oil industry, which the IEA represents. Clifford J. Wirth, Peak Oil Associates International

Welcome to a New World of Investing

Hi Jim,

There is no doubt that wages and housing prices will continue to fall. But lowered wages and unemployment means real inflation in prices.

And there is a real possibility of higher oil prices in 2009 due to Peak Oil declining production and political factors which could occur in Iraq, Nigeria, Iran or some unforeseen resource nationalism or revolutionary activity. The CIA has been caught off guard before, and it can happen again. Murphy's Law warns that If something can go wrong, it will; and in this case many things can go wrong.

And this recession may be permanent, due to Peak Oil.

Global crude oil production peaked in 2008.

The media, governments, world leaders, and public should focus on this issue.

Global crude oil production had been rising briskly until 2004, then plateaued for four years. Because oil producers were extracting at maximum effort to profit from high oil prices, this plateau is a clear indication of Peak Oil.

Then in August and September of 2008 while oil prices were still very high, global crude oil production fell nearly one million barrels per day, clear evidence of Peak Oil (See Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of "Oil Watch Monthly," December 2008, page 1) www.peakoil.nl/wp-cont....

Peak Oil is now.

Credit for accurate Peak Oil predictions (within a few years) goes to the following (projected year for peak given in parentheses):

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst; Samuel Foucher, oil analyst; and Stuart Staniford, Physicist [Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects] (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell geologist (2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of "Giant Oil Fields" (2008 to 2018)

Oil production will now begin to decline terminally.

Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts could exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

Documented here:
www.peakoilassociates....
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../