cjwirth

The Five Most Important Energy Forecasts of 2008

Here is the most important energy forecast of 2008, from the Energy Information Agency (EIA), December 9, 2008:

"Overview. The increasing likelihood of a prolonged global economic downturn continues to dominate market perceptions, putting downward pressure on oil prices. World real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow from about 4 percent in 2006 and 2007 to about 2.7 percent this year and 0.5 percent in 2009. Last month’s Outlook assumed world GDP would increase by 1.8 percent in 2009. The condition of the global economy and production decisions by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to remain the crucial factors driving world oil prices.

Consumption. The status of the global economy has become the most important driver of oil consumption growth and EIA’s oil consumption projections continue to be revised downward in response to lower forecasts for global economic growth. As a result, global oil consumption is expected to decline by 50,000 bbl/d in 2008 and by 450,000 bbl/d in 2009, which would mark the first time in 3 decades that world consumption would decline in 2 consecutive years. In both years, growth is concentrated in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), especially China, the Middle East, and Latin America. However, projected sharp declines in oil consumption in OECD countries more than offset any non-OECD oil consumption growth (World Oil Consumption). If the world economy recovers sooner or is stronger than EIA now anticipates, oil consumption could decline at a slower rate or potentially increase instead, putting upward pressure on oil prices. "

More here: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/s...

Best regards,
Cliff Wirth
Peak Oil Associates International
www.peakoilassociates....
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

How Will Temporary Decline in Oil Prices Impact Energy Sector?

John Petersen is right. Gas prices will increase again.

There will not, however, big a big changeover to to EVs.

When people are unemployed due to the Peak Oil depression, and the gas guzzler has a zero trade in value, few will buy an EV.

Clifford. J. Wirth, Ph.D.