cjwirth

Peak Oil for Dummies

Regarding the future potential for natural gas as a replacement for gasoline and diesel, see this comment:

www.theoildrum.com/nod...

and the EIA concludes much the same, see the section "Substitution of Natural Gas for Petroleum Consumption" a little more than half way down the page:

www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/a...

and then these data about how fast oil supply reduction is occurring for the U.S:

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

The capital for natural gas conversions and supply infrastructure will disappear as oil supply reduction impacts the U.S. economy.

And these article do not even take into account declining oil supplies and how that will impact the economy:

seekingalpha.com/insta...

www.commodityonline.co...

www.guardian.co.uk/wor...

And the IEA indicates that "the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010:"

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

Best regards,

Cliff Wirth

Peak Oil for Dummies

This is an OK soft intro, here is the real thing:

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

survivingpeakoil.blogs...

www.peakoilassociates....

Oil Rises Again: What Does it Mean?

Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, water supply, waste water treatment, and automated building systems.

Documented here:
www.peakoilassociates....
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Welcome to a New World of Investing

Hi Jim,

There is no doubt that wages and housing prices will continue to fall. But lowered wages and unemployment means real inflation in prices.

And there is a real possibility of higher oil prices in 2009 due to Peak Oil declining production and political factors which could occur in Iraq, Nigeria, Iran or some unforeseen resource nationalism or revolutionary activity. The CIA has been caught off guard before, and it can happen again. Murphy's Law warns that If something can go wrong, it will; and in this case many things can go wrong.

And this recession may be permanent, due to Peak Oil.

Global crude oil production peaked in 2008.

The media, governments, world leaders, and public should focus on this issue.

Global crude oil production had been rising briskly until 2004, then plateaued for four years. Because oil producers were extracting at maximum effort to profit from high oil prices, this plateau is a clear indication of Peak Oil.

Then in August and September of 2008 while oil prices were still very high, global crude oil production fell nearly one million barrels per day, clear evidence of Peak Oil (See Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of "Oil Watch Monthly," December 2008, page 1) www.peakoil.nl/wp-cont....

Peak Oil is now.

Credit for accurate Peak Oil predictions (within a few years) goes to the following (projected year for peak given in parentheses):

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst; Samuel Foucher, oil analyst; and Stuart Staniford, Physicist [Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects] (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell geologist (2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of "Giant Oil Fields" (2008 to 2018)

Oil production will now begin to decline terminally.

Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts could exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

Documented here:
www.peakoilassociates....
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Oil Price Lower on Inventory Numbers, But It Can't Go Much Lower

Peak Oil is here now, and the prices of oil will go back up in 2009 or 2010.

Oil shale will never yield anything as the investment is high both in capital and the use of oil, and the GAO and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have said as much.

Tar sands production will not yield much oil, according the Canadian Energy Board, and production is stalled by the credit crunch, which will get worse.

Wind turbines and solar panels yield electric power which is not needed , as we will have spare electric power as factories, offices, and commercial centers close.

After 50 years of trying we still don't have good batteries, so electric power will not replace diesel trucks and tractors/combines.

Documented: www.peakoilassociates....
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Oil Price Lower on Inventory Numbers, But It Can't Go Much Lower

Peak Oil is here now, and the prices of oil will go back up in 2009 or 2010.

Oil shale will never yield anything as the investment is high both in capital and the use of oil, and the GAO and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have said as much.

Tar sands production will not yield much oil, according the Canadian Energy Board, and production is stalled by the credit crunch, which will get worse.

Wind turbines and solar panels yield electric power which is not needed , as we will have spare electric power as factories, offices, and commercial centers close.

After 50 years of trying we still don't have good batteries, so electric power will not replace diesel trucks and tractors/combines.

Documented: www.peakoilassociates....
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Reduced Oil Production Hurting Mexican Economy

Good article Jim,

The collapse in Mexico will come a little slower than some think. The Mexican economic collapse will mean massive unemployment, reduced factory orders, and a halt to construction. Most oil in Mexico is used for auto/truck transport and construction. Much of this oil not used in Mexico will be sold to the U.S.; therefore, the Mexican government will be able to sell oil for a bit longer, but not much. The situation is grim.

But the situation in the U.S. is not much better.

Independent studies (reviewed in the Peak Oil Report

www.peakoilassociates....

by Clifford J. Wirth) conclude that Peak Oil production will occur (or has occurred) between 2005 to 2010 (projected year for peak in parentheses), as follows:

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008 to 2010)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell Geologist (2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)


Independent studies conclude that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

www.energywatchgroup.o...

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: www.peakoilassociates....

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place in Mexico. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Reduced Oil Production Hurting Mexican Economy

Good article Jim,

The collapse in Mexico will come a little slower than some think. The Mexican economic collapse will mean massive unemployment, reduced factory orders, and a halt to construction. Most oil in Mexico is used for auto/truck transport and construction. Much of this oil not used in Mexico will be sold to the U.S.; therefore, the Mexican government will be able to sell oil for a bit longer, but not much. The situation is grim.

But the situation in the U.S. is not much better.

Independent studies (reviewed in the Peak Oil Report

www.peakoilassociates....

by Clifford J. Wirth) conclude that Peak Oil production will occur (or has occurred) between 2005 to 2010 (projected year for peak in parentheses), as follows:

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008 to 2010)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell Geologist (2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)


Independent studies conclude that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

www.energywatchgroup.o...

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: www.peakoilassociates....

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place in Mexico. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Peak Oil - Are We There Yet?

This is an excellent article on Peak Oil. Most independent studies and analysts conclude that we are at Peak Oil now.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: www.peakoilassociates....

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Peak Oil - Are We There Yet?

This is an excellent article on Peak Oil. Most independent studies and analysts conclude that we are at Peak Oil now.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: www.peakoilassociates....

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

Are Oily Characters Behind Crude's Price Move?

Hey DownOnMyLuck,

You made my day with your comment!!!

Ya know, when Peak Oil really hits, these "mad as hell" types are going to be in tizzy when they can't get on the phone to call their congressperson, can't get on the Internet, can't even watch TV or listen to the radio to find out happened. It will all come to pass after the last power blackout. People should Google: peak oil impacts -- in order to see what lies ahead.

Are Oily Characters Behind Crude's Price Move?

Acreditor is right. Supply and demand determine oil prices, which will soon skyrocket.

According to energy investment banker Matthew Simmons and most independent analysts, global oil production is now declining, from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%.

This is equivalent to a 33% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

Oil: Does Supply and Demand Still Apply?

Virtually every expert concludes that we cannot increase oil production.

According to energy investment banker Matthew Simmons and most independent analysts, global oil production is now declining, from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%.

This is equivalent to a 33% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.

We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: www.peakoilassociates....

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207.

GM May Hit $200 Before Oil Does

Peak Oil is NOW. Most independent studies and analysts conclude that crude oil is peaking now and global liquids are not far behind (crude oil peak dates given here): Matthew Simmons 2005; German based and parliament funded Energy Watch Group 2005, Kenneth Deffeyes 2005, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2005, David Cohen 2011, T. Boone Pickens (2005), Samsam Bakhtiari 2005, Tony Eriksen 2008, Rembrandt Kopplear 2008-2010, Fredrik Robelius 2012, Chris Skrebowski by 2011, Sadad Al Husseini, says we will pump no higher, Jeffrey Brown and Stuart Staniford (soon).

Even the cheerleaders for the oil producers/extractors (CERA, EIA, and IEA) have indicated that global oil production is peaking.

Interestingly, the U.S. Energy Information Agency and International Energy Agency still have not given the world a specific time frame for global peaking.

Sometimes I wonder what happened to my tax dollars :(

And the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency has said nothing about what to do when oil production is so low that the highways and power grid fail in the not too distant future :(

All of the documentation and references for this are available in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: www.peakoilassociates....

I used to live in NH, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil?

Is 'Peak Oil' Already Affecting the Stock Market?

All of the electric power we could ever want is not going to solve the liquid fuel crisis. There is not even a plan of how to build the infrastructure for electric trucks, freight trains, and tractors and combines. In addition, when the Interstates and power grid go out from a lack of oil/diesel for maintenance, that's it. No transportation of products, no food coming in on the Interstates, and no home heating, which needs electric power to operate. Read more here in a 50 page free downloadable report: www.peakoilassociates....