cjwirth

Alternative Energy Storage for Global Warming Agnostics

Dear Esq. Peterson,

I carefully researched all possibilities in scientific and government studies, and there are no alternatives available for avoiding this catastrophe.
www.peakoilassociates....
Human ingenuity is great, but the Laws of Thermodynamics tell us that we cannot invent energy. There are not even plans of how to use the sun's energy to get the liquid fuels we need. Even if we had some answers (and we don't), it is far too late to develop a trillion dollar make over of the energy economy. This is why I focus on preparing for Peak Oil impacts: survivingpeakoil.blogs.../ and suggest that people come live here in a sustainable location. Come visit clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com.

On Dec 29 06:15 AM John Petersen wrote:

> aitvras, I'm not up early. We just have a 6 hour time zone advantage.
> Over the last few weeks we've seen that OPEC production cuts of a
> couple million barrels have done little to moderate the price declines,
> so while the U.S. government might be able to influence the market
> for several months by drawing down the strategic oil reserve, any
> impact would likely be temporary. In the long-term the market will
> have its way.
>
> Dr. Wirth, the painful scenario you paint is within the realm of
> possibility if people don't recognize the peak oil problem and begin
> working on real solutions. But I'm an optimist when it comes to human
> ingenuity; our ability to adapt to change and our long history of
> emerging stronger from each painful revolution. Society will change
> and evolve, but I don't think we'll revert to barbarism.

Alternative Energy Storage for Global Warming Agnostics

Today's headlines indicate that the power industry is in trouble due to a lack of electric power demand as the global recession/depression expands.

www.thestar.com/Busine...

But, for a few years, industry and government will invest in the electric economy, even though it will fail. Alternative energies depend on oil and will fail without cheap oil.

Independent studies conclude that Peak Oil production will occur (or has occurred) between 2005 to 2010 (projected year for peak in parentheses), as follows:

* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)

* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)

* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst (2008)

* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)

* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)

* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)

* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell Geologist (2005)

* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)

* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)

* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)

* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

www.energywatchgroup.o...

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: www.peakoilassociates....

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a more sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

The Five Most Important Energy Forecasts of 2008

Here is the most important energy forecast of 2008, from the Energy Information Agency (EIA), December 9, 2008:

"Overview. The increasing likelihood of a prolonged global economic downturn continues to dominate market perceptions, putting downward pressure on oil prices. World real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow from about 4 percent in 2006 and 2007 to about 2.7 percent this year and 0.5 percent in 2009. Last month’s Outlook assumed world GDP would increase by 1.8 percent in 2009. The condition of the global economy and production decisions by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to remain the crucial factors driving world oil prices.

Consumption. The status of the global economy has become the most important driver of oil consumption growth and EIA’s oil consumption projections continue to be revised downward in response to lower forecasts for global economic growth. As a result, global oil consumption is expected to decline by 50,000 bbl/d in 2008 and by 450,000 bbl/d in 2009, which would mark the first time in 3 decades that world consumption would decline in 2 consecutive years. In both years, growth is concentrated in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), especially China, the Middle East, and Latin America. However, projected sharp declines in oil consumption in OECD countries more than offset any non-OECD oil consumption growth (World Oil Consumption). If the world economy recovers sooner or is stronger than EIA now anticipates, oil consumption could decline at a slower rate or potentially increase instead, putting upward pressure on oil prices. "

More here: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/s...

Best regards,
Cliff Wirth
Peak Oil Associates International
www.peakoilassociates....
survivingpeakoil.blogs.../

How Will Temporary Decline in Oil Prices Impact Energy Sector?

John Petersen is right. Gas prices will increase again.

There will not, however, big a big changeover to to EVs.

When people are unemployed due to the Peak Oil depression, and the gas guzzler has a zero trade in value, few will buy an EV.

Clifford. J. Wirth, Ph.D.