Ice's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/122291/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/162677-u-s-strategy-for-g20-doesn-t-work?source=feed#comment-686627 686627
The technology race will be motivated by the wish to become/stay a world leader for the upcoming century.]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 16:36:59 -0400
The technology race will be motivated by the wish to become/stay a world leader for the upcoming century.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/23689?source=feed#comment-493446 493446 Thu, 07 May 2009 07:57:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133084-government-s-new-credit-approach-does-the-end-justify-the-means?source=feed#comment-483507 483507 Don't forget that every default on CC is paid by us - the clients who do pay their bills.
So for me the get cheaper credit it is important that credit is given to people who can carried it - not to someone who is juggling more CC-debt than their annual income is high.

The free market has made a mess from the cc system - it is the most expensive payment system around (compared to other alternatives). Effectively it is a sales-tax on every item I buy of 5%. The difference with Europe is that here I pay the sales tax to a bank while in Europe it goes to a government.
]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 23:53:08 -0400 Don't forget that every default on CC is paid by us - the clients who do pay their bills.
So for me the get cheaper credit it is important that credit is given to people who can carried it - not to someone who is juggling more CC-debt than their annual income is high.

The free market has made a mess from the cc system - it is the most expensive payment system around (compared to other alternatives). Effectively it is a sales-tax on every item I buy of 5%. The difference with Europe is that here I pay the sales tax to a bank while in Europe it goes to a government.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133676-will-the-stress-test-seal-ken-lewis-s-fate?source=feed#comment-481920 481920 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 22:23:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133580-rupert-murdoch-interview-economy-weak-danger-of-inflation-great?source=feed#comment-481913 481913 It was not government or it agencies forcing big finance in these constructions. If was not government forcing them to use off balance sheet assets, it was not government forcing them to use 30* leverage.

As long as we make a very limited analyze of the real causes - how can we think we are able to find the correct solution to future prevention.

Long live partisan obstruction of truth (and now I am sarcastic)


]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 22:19:56 -0400 It was not government or it agencies forcing big finance in these constructions. If was not government forcing them to use off balance sheet assets, it was not government forcing them to use 30* leverage.

As long as we make a very limited analyze of the real causes - how can we think we are able to find the correct solution to future prevention.

Long live partisan obstruction of truth (and now I am sarcastic)


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129969-alcoa-s-quarterly-results-mixed-bag?source=feed#comment-455428 455428 Front month IV is high - eoy IV is lower reducing the risks for longer term calendars.]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 17:45:54 -0400 Front month IV is high - eoy IV is lower reducing the risks for longer term calendars.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129194-will-the-g20-crack-down-on-the-fasb?source=feed#comment-450185 450185
I have no real objects to M2F.

They only comment is shame to the bank teams and regulators who let this happen on their watch. For me this includes Greenspan - however many letters he gets posted in FT - shame on him. ]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 21:46:15 -0400
I have no real objects to M2F.

They only comment is shame to the bank teams and regulators who let this happen on their watch. For me this includes Greenspan - however many letters he gets posted in FT - shame on him. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126775-what-the-fed-s-announcement-means-for-gold?source=feed#comment-432996 432996
agree

A bond is an IOU for a fix time period for which interest is being paid. A bond is a less liquid equity, at least compared to US dollar bill. A Dollar bill is an IOU - but it has an indefinite time period, no interest and is extreme liquid.

So the question is who is selling their treasuries to the FED and what are they going to do with the enhanced liquidity.
Here is my bet;
a. foreign holder will line up to sell to the FED
b. the liquid dollars will be exchanged for another currency.

If I am right then Wednesday we heard the FOMC announcing that the Chinese pressure had accumulated to the point that they need a sign of 'good will'. One phone call from China to Washington - get us out off some of these long term IOUs.]]> Thu, 19 Mar 2009 20:48:19 -0400
agree

A bond is an IOU for a fix time period for which interest is being paid. A bond is a less liquid equity, at least compared to US dollar bill. A Dollar bill is an IOU - but it has an indefinite time period, no interest and is extreme liquid.

So the question is who is selling their treasuries to the FED and what are they going to do with the enhanced liquidity.
Here is my bet;
a. foreign holder will line up to sell to the FED
b. the liquid dollars will be exchanged for another currency.

If I am right then Wednesday we heard the FOMC announcing that the Chinese pressure had accumulated to the point that they need a sign of 'good will'. One phone call from China to Washington - get us out off some of these long term IOUs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122622-obama-s-speech-the-vision-thing-vs-the-devil-in-the-details?source=feed#comment-403878 403878 But then as a Dutchman in NY I can be amazed everyday.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 22:53:46 -0500 But then as a Dutchman in NY I can be amazed everyday.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121688-santelli-s-rant-a-watershed-moment?source=feed#comment-396177 396177
Those loans have a free embedded put - a put which the American banks and families are paying for.
With out the non recourse walking away would not have been an option.

a. Starting today we need to end non recourse loans
b. loan which gets renegotiated needs to end being non recourse.

]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 07:12:15 -0500
Those loans have a free embedded put - a put which the American banks and families are paying for.
With out the non recourse walking away would not have been an option.

a. Starting today we need to end non recourse loans
b. loan which gets renegotiated needs to end being non recourse.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121424-obama-s-housing-plan-legislating-conflicting-goals?source=feed#comment-394623 394623 What I find missing in the all these discussion is why are those mortgages non-recourse/ limited liability.
Why do we give home owner a premium free put on their house prices. Especially why do we give these puts to second homes and investment real estate.

For me components of coherent plan should be

- starting today no more non recourse loans.
- people who pay more than x% of income to mortgage can extend the mortgage to 60yrs but the loan will not be non recourse anymore.

More is necessary but I think step 1 is to deal with the non recourse aspect since this fueled the home price even more than cheap money.
]]> Thu, 19 Feb 2009 06:59:46 -0500 What I find missing in the all these discussion is why are those mortgages non-recourse/ limited liability.
Why do we give home owner a premium free put on their house prices. Especially why do we give these puts to second homes and investment real estate.

For me components of coherent plan should be

- starting today no more non recourse loans.
- people who pay more than x% of income to mortgage can extend the mortgage to 60yrs but the loan will not be non recourse anymore.

More is necessary but I think step 1 is to deal with the non recourse aspect since this fueled the home price even more than cheap money.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117617-the-shedlock-schiff-affair-a-chronicle?source=feed#comment-370766 370766
Jeremy Grantham
John Mauldin
Steve Roach

Just to name three - In Mauldin's case he was on the subject at as early as Jan 2007.]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 06:46:17 -0500
Jeremy Grantham
John Mauldin
Steve Roach

Just to name three - In Mauldin's case he was on the subject at as early as Jan 2007.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116209-apple-and-google-changing-my-mind?source=feed#comment-364909 364909 Furthermore if you do not get assigned after expiry you sell the March 290.]]> Sat, 24 Jan 2009 10:28:38 -0500 Furthermore if you do not get assigned after expiry you sell the March 290.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114966-exclusive-interview-with-jim-rogers-inflation-is-coming?source=feed#comment-357087 357087
conditions like - We China don't mind Iran to have a atomic weapon, so US stop interfering - condition met? We china will buy in the next year 300 billion of treasuries.

Why would China do this - because in the international tick for tack they will get compensate.

]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 19:50:54 -0500
conditions like - We China don't mind Iran to have a atomic weapon, so US stop interfering - condition met? We china will buy in the next year 300 billion of treasuries.

Why would China do this - because in the international tick for tack they will get compensate.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114262-what-if-the-economic-model-is-wrong?source=feed#comment-353122 353122
Erecting a second Brooklyn bridge, while it will give jobs for the short run, will do nothing to the financial infrastructure of NY. It will not improve NYC possibilities to compete with other financial centers.

I admit, am a strong supporter of OB, but I am a but afraid that by default moving investments in 1900-2000 era infrastructure is not going to help us compete.

We do need a better educational system - as for now it tends to favor 'old wealth' above keeping the best students as long as possible in the system.
We need a more flexible educational system, the thought that we study till 25 and are done - is so 1900's.
We will need to abandon traditional classroom and traditional one-to-many teaching.

We will need to sit back and blow some smoke to the ceiling and consider in which areas the USA should be leading in 50yrs time.
for me those area should include; energy generation and distribution, medical prevention, robotics, democracy and forward thinking regulations, management style in a global collaborative world. (i am sure there is more).

Selecting these topic is the essential - because the 1Trillion investments will need to support the development of the USA2050.

Be aware not to create a better USA1950 - because then Disney can sell tickets to a very large Open Air Museum.


]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 08:48:35 -0500
Erecting a second Brooklyn bridge, while it will give jobs for the short run, will do nothing to the financial infrastructure of NY. It will not improve NYC possibilities to compete with other financial centers.

I admit, am a strong supporter of OB, but I am a but afraid that by default moving investments in 1900-2000 era infrastructure is not going to help us compete.

We do need a better educational system - as for now it tends to favor 'old wealth' above keeping the best students as long as possible in the system.
We need a more flexible educational system, the thought that we study till 25 and are done - is so 1900's.
We will need to abandon traditional classroom and traditional one-to-many teaching.

We will need to sit back and blow some smoke to the ceiling and consider in which areas the USA should be leading in 50yrs time.
for me those area should include; energy generation and distribution, medical prevention, robotics, democracy and forward thinking regulations, management style in a global collaborative world. (i am sure there is more).

Selecting these topic is the essential - because the 1Trillion investments will need to support the development of the USA2050.

Be aware not to create a better USA1950 - because then Disney can sell tickets to a very large Open Air Museum.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104767-amazon-apple-google-waiting-for-the-fill?source=feed#comment-300544 300544
]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 20:43:30 -0500
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98315-why-mark-to-market?source=feed#comment-272149 272149
Just one rull;
market to fantasy assets need to be specified to line level on the balance sheet.

Management can in the side letter explain why those assets bear a high value than the current market price tells them. We investor can go through the line items and make our own assessment.

Accounting firm sign off on the accurateness of the descripition of the line items - not on the Mark to Fantasy value.

Problem solved for the investors and for credit market.

Problem remains for the regular to determine solvency levels of banks. I agree with that - but at least we solved the issue for the first two domains.

]]> Thu, 02 Oct 2008 18:19:04 -0400
Just one rull;
market to fantasy assets need to be specified to line level on the balance sheet.

Management can in the side letter explain why those assets bear a high value than the current market price tells them. We investor can go through the line items and make our own assessment.

Accounting firm sign off on the accurateness of the descripition of the line items - not on the Mark to Fantasy value.

Problem solved for the investors and for credit market.

Problem remains for the regular to determine solvency levels of banks. I agree with that - but at least we solved the issue for the first two domains.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95177-let-lehman-fail?source=feed#comment-252559 252559
- FNM and the likes are not bailed out. The equity holders are whipped out. (which is a good thing). Management should not have received bonuses and maybe even had to repaid prior years bonuses. What Paulson did by coming to rescue is to safe the world from the immediate effects of a FNM collapse and buying some time to solve the problem over a longer period. We the people of America would have paid the piper also in a complete bankruptcy. The good thing is now we get the bill presented over a decade.
- As for your statements on Bill Gross; he used FNM bonds as an investment vehicle. He saw the spreads between FNM bonds and other bonds open up over the last 18 months and thought it to be a good opportunity. He made a political assessment if it was possible for the US government to walk from the implicit guarantees on FNM debt. He was right the world did not allow the government to walk away for 40 years of statements which lead to widely accepted believe that FNM bonds where protected by the US taxpayer. If you want to attach blame start with Nixon and move up to all the other presidents who supported big business and started with the political bias that business is the solution for all US problems and challenges. FNM was a disaster, 40 years businesses have taken the profits and now when times become rough they ain't home.

Now we have proof we can't trust Wall Street with the welfare of the country, we need to distinguish between two aspects;

- reduce the short term fall out
- for the long term change of the regulations




]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 10:04:14 -0400
- FNM and the likes are not bailed out. The equity holders are whipped out. (which is a good thing). Management should not have received bonuses and maybe even had to repaid prior years bonuses. What Paulson did by coming to rescue is to safe the world from the immediate effects of a FNM collapse and buying some time to solve the problem over a longer period. We the people of America would have paid the piper also in a complete bankruptcy. The good thing is now we get the bill presented over a decade.
- As for your statements on Bill Gross; he used FNM bonds as an investment vehicle. He saw the spreads between FNM bonds and other bonds open up over the last 18 months and thought it to be a good opportunity. He made a political assessment if it was possible for the US government to walk from the implicit guarantees on FNM debt. He was right the world did not allow the government to walk away for 40 years of statements which lead to widely accepted believe that FNM bonds where protected by the US taxpayer. If you want to attach blame start with Nixon and move up to all the other presidents who supported big business and started with the political bias that business is the solution for all US problems and challenges. FNM was a disaster, 40 years businesses have taken the profits and now when times become rough they ain't home.

Now we have proof we can't trust Wall Street with the welfare of the country, we need to distinguish between two aspects;

- reduce the short term fall out
- for the long term change of the regulations




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94468-could-frannie-have-prevented-the-housing-bubble?source=feed#comment-248861 248861
I am surprised how little attention this aspect of the credit crunch gets in the general media, in the blogs and by the opinion leaders (like yourself)
]]> Mon, 08 Sep 2008 20:26:20 -0400
I am surprised how little attention this aspect of the credit crunch gets in the general media, in the blogs and by the opinion leaders (like yourself)
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91673-the-crazy-lehman-share-price?source=feed#comment-234262 234262
The main reason why a stock goes down however we do know;

Because there are more sellers than there are buyers.

The rest is for historians not for a day by day Talking Head(s).

Doesn't the word Head have an other mean - think nautical.]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:19:40 -0400
The main reason why a stock goes down however we do know;

Because there are more sellers than there are buyers.

The rest is for historians not for a day by day Talking Head(s).

Doesn't the word Head have an other mean - think nautical.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91458-when-op-ed-pages-turn-neutral?source=feed#comment-233185 233185
Having credit and spending more than you earn might be an American thing, but that does not make it a normal - healthy way of living.

Having credit means owning someone money, if you have trouble making ends meet, maybe! you should consider not having credit.

Cross the atlantic ocean and you will find that people have credit and debit cards. Debit cards work like they work here. Credit card however don't give you credit longer than a month, full balance is deducted automatically monthly from your checking account.
If you're in the need for credit (read personal loan) you go to your local bank and negotiate a PL. For liquidity purposes most checking account will allow an overdraft of several 1000's depending monthly income and mortgage payments. ]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 12:10:07 -0400
Having credit and spending more than you earn might be an American thing, but that does not make it a normal - healthy way of living.

Having credit means owning someone money, if you have trouble making ends meet, maybe! you should consider not having credit.

Cross the atlantic ocean and you will find that people have credit and debit cards. Debit cards work like they work here. Credit card however don't give you credit longer than a month, full balance is deducted automatically monthly from your checking account.
If you're in the need for credit (read personal loan) you go to your local bank and negotiate a PL. For liquidity purposes most checking account will allow an overdraft of several 1000's depending monthly income and mortgage payments. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88725-is-the-u-s-banking-system-safe?source=feed#comment-221853 221853 Sun, 03 Aug 2008 21:13:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86153-analysts-weigh-in-on-apple-earnings-10-15-points-more-downside?source=feed#comment-211449 211449 These are not a 20 year old in line for a Xbox or a PS/3. These were at least mid level exec from the surrounding banks.

Iphone is a hit also in the business environment. Just give AAPL some room to execute their plans. I am a strong holder in AAPL. Although I have some long term puts to cover the investment for disasters. But then that is my style of trading I hold nothing out right.

]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:14:30 -0400 These are not a 20 year old in line for a Xbox or a PS/3. These were at least mid level exec from the surrounding banks.

Iphone is a hit also in the business environment. Just give AAPL some room to execute their plans. I am a strong holder in AAPL. Although I have some long term puts to cover the investment for disasters. But then that is my style of trading I hold nothing out right.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80999-a-reader-owned-new-york-times?source=feed#comment-183943 183943
hint: Senate and Congress :)]]> Thu, 12 Jun 2008 07:02:56 -0400
hint: Senate and Congress :)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80613-apple-announces-mobileme-exchange-for-the-rest-of-us?source=feed#comment-182160 182160 I think it is serious time to push for a management change in Seattle.]]> Mon, 09 Jun 2008 21:25:21 -0400 I think it is serious time to push for a management change in Seattle.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80410-microsoft-s-iphone-envy-is-starting-to-show?source=feed#comment-180434 180434
Split MSFT in two. Split the Windows Vista Business from the rest.

Make an offer for AAPL with the remainder part of Microsoft.

Should work shouldn't it.

I think that would solve a lot of MSFT problems just afraid that the purchase of AAPL will not be a friendly merger. ]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 12:40:15 -0400
Split MSFT in two. Split the Windows Vista Business from the rest.

Make an offer for AAPL with the remainder part of Microsoft.

Should work shouldn't it.

I think that would solve a lot of MSFT problems just afraid that the purchase of AAPL will not be a friendly merger. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68376-can-bush-save-the-dollar-s-fall?source=feed#comment-126038 126038
The size of our deficit is better to handle if the dollar falls further and further. The US citizens and the Government have a pact. We don't raise taxes and we pay off our joint debt by trashing the dollar. With a Dollar 3:1 to the Euro our deficit is back with in normal boundaries plus as an extra benefit a lot of exported jobs will automatically come back to the US.

So trashing the dollar will help this country. At least if you believe in short side politically easy solutions.

So if you claim Bush wants a strong dollar you also make a statement that he is for the difficult, honorable and durable route out of this mess. I personally find that hard to believe; it would be a first time :)]]> Thu, 13 Mar 2008 12:52:27 -0400
The size of our deficit is better to handle if the dollar falls further and further. The US citizens and the Government have a pact. We don't raise taxes and we pay off our joint debt by trashing the dollar. With a Dollar 3:1 to the Euro our deficit is back with in normal boundaries plus as an extra benefit a lot of exported jobs will automatically come back to the US.

So trashing the dollar will help this country. At least if you believe in short side politically easy solutions.

So if you claim Bush wants a strong dollar you also make a statement that he is for the difficult, honorable and durable route out of this mess. I personally find that hard to believe; it would be a first time :)]]>