rbblum

Grantham on the Financial 'Titanic'

Although I personally couldn't agree with enigmaman more regarding Paul Volcker being 'used' purely for show by President Obama, it is also my belief that President Obama will continue such an extravagant drollery until someone actually calls him on it publicly . . . Until that time actually presents itself, President Obama will continue to act in an arrogant, shameless fashion while
ignoring the sage insight of Paul Volker.

And, although Barack Obama stated that he should be judged by the people who surround him, Abraham Lincoln observed that an individual can not fool all of 'the people' all of the time.

The Muddle Through Economy, R.I.P.?

Why not be like Japan? Possibly because Japan's overall popoluation is decreasing while its senior citizens segment is growing. And, it does not help to have Japan's GDP so heavily dependent on the strategy of exporting manufactured goods, which has been decreasing. . . But worse, the new government of Japan believes they can extend more social programs which needs more borowing. . . which will lead to payback time (economic straits) in the year 2010.

Somehow, lack of solid and sensible fiscal and monetary policy is not only found in the US. . . which can not flourish if the business environment is polluted with a lack of understanding that the government that governs least IS the best.

Mexico's Declining Oil Production: Clarion Call for Cantarell

Losing the ability to export oil, Mexico will be another defining moment in modern history . . . presenting the American environmentalist movement in a position to further define who they are and what they truly represent . . . all the while America transitions into the next chapter redefining itself with the use of more expensive oil reserves and determining which alternative energy sources will likely be the most efficient and economical for the long term.

Unfortunately, there are very few, readily available, acceptable options that the American environmentalist movement will accept in addition to US politicians having no experience nor track record in planning and implementing a reasonable and reliable energy business plan that would pass economic muster on the open global market . . . thus, guaranteeing a bumpy ride for all.

Is the U.S. Dollar the Fed's Next Weapon?

I believe a case can be presented that there is already a quiet, unstated policy in effect to sanction a U.S. dollar devaluation as a means to stimulate the domestic economy . . . whether by having implemented a round of quatitative easing or other global market players quietly moving away from the US dollar as the world currency reserve . . . it has just not yet been honestly reflected on 'the books'.

Washington's Dilemma: This Isn't a Recession, It's a Collapse

The United States of America bail out each and every State 'in need' ? I DON'T THINK SO . . . Otherwise, why couldn't/shouldn't the Great State of Texas buy out Petrobras and Saudi Aramco? With the inability to honor the contract to buy, The US Government would have to follow precedent and put up the funds that would directly benefit the State of Texas and its citizens.

Even if the fiscally irresponsible state of california were math intollerant, that was by 'choice' and 'determination'.

More Bullishness for Oil Heading into 2010

As beneficial as it may be to discuss the big picture regarding oil
availability vs global demand, it may be just as significant in maintaining a discussion regarding the underlying currents of the proven oil fields currently available to the US vs future availability to the US at reasonable costs . . . expecially when observing continuing, negative trends which include (but not limited to)
Venezuela redirecting their oil contracts away from the US, to China; the dwindling life of Mexico's Cantrell Fields and; the anti-energy bias of the US initiated by the 'environmentalist/global warming' clique.

Cap-and-Trade and the Cheap Energy Illusion

If any historical notes are to be referenced, it should be one in which the basic laws of economics can not be controlled by the will of man . . . no matter how magnanimous the intention(s) may be.

Besides, it is most perverse that man holds himself to be so wise while voting for a legislative bill that is neither read in its entirety nor fully understood.

Shareholder Communications: Kudos to GE's Immelt, Dominion

Something is amiss . . . BIG TIME. From the mouth and mind of GE's CEO Immelt: The interaction between government and business will change forever. In a reset economy, the government will be a regulator; and also an industry policy champion, a financier, and a key partner.

One slight problem comes to mind with that one thought: In order for the Obama ideology to grow and flourish, with or without Immelt's praise and support, the current US economy and traditional lifestyle must crash and burn. Upon which then will the new world as perceived by the Obama ideology will a new republic be born.


Not only is Immelt established a track record of being captain of the GE ship that has stalled and dwindled as a profitable business, he is calling for the US government to succeed where it has no business . . . actively interacting with business. And with a track record of an ever increasing, unsustainable national deficit, decreasing value of the US dollar, higher taxes, and a diminishing lifestyle, who really can justify and defend the new social and economic order of the US as envisioned by the Obama ideology?

Bottom line: Not only does the Obama ideology come up short with a strong foundation and very little structural support, the financial and monetary numbers do not add up. DO THE MATH.

World Oil Snapshot: Big Picture and Investable Advice

Oil men don't give a damn whether the billions they pay in royalties and taxes are wasted.

Perhaps . . . but oil men of the United States are also not going to be caught flat-footed and have the real possibility of revised US tax laws and regulations wantonly rape and pillage their bank accounts either. Already relocating to Zug, Switzerland has been Noble Corp, Transocean, Foster Wheeler and Weatherford International. And as the national deficit climbs to a more unsustainable level coupled with the value of the US dollar drifting lower, time will determine whether the class warfare in America continues and the companies of the oil energy sector will be huge targets of our current administration and congress; thus, increasing the incentive to move on . . . from US shores to a friendlier territory.

Automakers: Investment Risk

The Chrysler story today really could be confused and given erroneous credit for the line 'Mr. President, this has disaster written all over it' . . . But it was actually the the movie The American President and a line from the character Sydney Wade as played by Annette Bening who delivered the appropriate, perhpas perfect, line.

But it still could appear to be a comedy of errors by the time Chrysler makes it through the gauntlet of bankruptcy court. It was painful enough for billions of taxpayer dollars going to prop up an American capitalist company in the business of manufacturing vehicles that, by most accounts, would appear to be in a downward spiral resulting in be a slow, painful crash, but Chrysler's storyline will not have a merciful ending for it really is, and has been, many things to many people. Not only was Congress determining by committee a myriad of regulations overseeing the final product but also a sense of push-me/pull-you as evidenced by management vs union. And if it was not bad enough that the current administration whipsawed Chrysler on its way to the barkruptcy court but somehow is giving the belief that Chrysler will be on the 'fast track' through the judicial system that is anticipating the merging of FIAT, an Italian manufacturer of adult-kiddie cars with an American machine that will be represented by dealerships that have somehow survived through a process of cut-throat, back-stabbing and luck. But worse, will be Chrsler's management role overseen by union through union eyes as well as a push by the invisible hands of the current administration, dictating what type of product it should sell, establishing the cost structure of manufacturing the product and the cost of selling the product as well as how the corporate structure should be established . . . all for the good of society.

Gotta go back to the line that describes the Chrysler story best . . .
Mr. President, this has disaster written all over it . . . albeit, in torturous, slow motion.

Mexico's Woes: Quakes, Flu and Oil Production Collapse

Regardless of the US Congress and the current administration making a shameless, cramdown effort in the acceptance of a second amnesty of illegal aliens, the US will still be exposed to future internal weakness due to the lack of border security and Mexico lacking the initiative to turn its weakened economy around. Mexico will also be
weakened further by the continual decrease of Mexico's oil production; thus, losing its status as an oil exporter (and the US #3 oil importer).

China's Gold Holdings Report Boosts Metal's Price

Not quite sure what is more disheartening and short-sighted: mainstream medias' news flash with little/no substance of the Congressional approval of the three trillion, four hundred forty billion dollar ($4,440,000,000,000) US budget for the fiscal year beginning October 01, 2009.
. . . . or mainstream medias' total disregard in presenting China's current fiscal/monetary strength through their strategy of buying or investing/partnering with asset-based businesses globally AND recently announcing their ever-increasing position of an historical, real value asset of gold.

China's Gold: World Changing or Unsurprising?

Another way to put things into perspective is to picture what it would be like if all the global market participants were seated at the grand economic table and observe what each participant really had to contribute/articulate concerning their current position within the global economic sphere.

The USA would continue to meddle with best practices of business interests, advancing the backwardation of social engineering and, recklessly abandoning rational and prudent fiscal/monetary policies. China on the other hand will continue to plod ahead one step at a time as it has one century at a time: currently buying, investing/partnering in real asset-based businesses, engraciating overly-leveraged global participants with short-sighted loans, and planning their (China) future by laying the groundwork of future fininacial/monetary strength.

Big oil is giving Obama's grand plans for alternative energy the cold shoulder: We don't oppose alternative energy sources and the development of those. But to hang the future of the country's energy on those alternatives alone belies reality of their size and scale.

It should be no surprise IF or when our current congressional body makes a move towards taxing the ever living hell out of the oil, coal, nuclear and natural gas sectors for no other reason than to have readily available funds . . . 'possibly' under the guise of applying the monies (from the reliable, well-established, successful energy companies) towards expanding alternative, renewable energy sources . . . whether all of the alternative, renewable energy sources are ready for prime time or not.

Segway and GM's Puma Addresses the Problems of Tomorrow

IF PUMA is 'for real' then it has to be at the blessing and direction of the current (new & improved) US Government. HOWEVER, when reviewing the wisdom and track record of the US Congress, the manufacturing and marketing effort of the PUMA endeavor may as well be lead by Buck Rogers in order to be a near-term profitable product for bankrupt-leaning GM.

The PUMA story appears to be what it is: a story reflecting the desparation by Government Motors (GM).