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  • Allied Nevada Gold - After Osisko, Allied Nevada Is A Prime Takeover Target [View article]
    What is your source for the assertion that Credit Suisse was hired in April 22, 2014 to find a partner? I enjoyed the article. Thanks
    May 14, 2014. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIHD: Battleground $5.73 [View instapost]
    They acknowledged $9/share for towers and spectrum and want yo force it down based on nothing new?
    Who are thy trying to get out (short) or possibly in (that large theoretical player you mentioned)?
    Currencies can be hedged.
    Tech rollouts do have bumps.
    Why would 60M shorts chase $2.
    They want to walk away obligated to return worthless shares.
    By the report of a bearish analyst, we are not anywhere near that.
    Aug 22, 2013. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIHD: Despite Deals And Upped Cash, Shorts In Control [View instapost]
    MS downgrades to underweight this morning. Of similar note GS downgraded heavily shorted TSL and RBCN to "sells" in the past few months only to have them both rip higher pf late after the initial reactionary selling. They are providing cover to their institutional shorts. Why here and now - when it is most vulnerable? This is where the bottom is made and weak longs are shaken out.

    Alright where are you Stifel, Macquarie?
    Aug 22, 2013. 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIHD: Despite Deals And Upped Cash, Shorts In Control [View instapost]
    Shorting NIHD has become a very crowded trade. Thomson Reuters shows SSV (short sale volume in 100s) as 827160. That is 82 M shares out of a float of 172 M roughly for a stock that just raised over $1.2 B and restructured debt. The short thesis assumes no growth and the capex investments to be a futile exercise. It completely ignores the embedded value of the company. Mexico and Brazil are underdeveloped markets whose economies will recover when global commodity demand returns. Brazil has the twin catalysts of World Cup soccer and the Olympics over the next three years. Wireless assets are presently in big demand. NIHD is rolling out MotoX phones and PRIP and is updating their tech profile. They own strategically important spectrum assets. Given the upside potential if they execute on their strategy and / or unlock the embedded value, I am not sure why you would short this stock now at $6. From 2011 through April, 2013, it was a smart trade. I think you now look for the turnaround or the unlocking of that embedded value by sale, spinoff or joint venture and go long.
    Aug 21, 2013. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NII Holdings: Misconstrued Deal Cap Rate May Fuel 26% Snapback [View article]
    I would take issue with the statement that the company has no present equity. It presently has significant equity per share.
    The real issue you are highlighting in your model is that, all things being equal, and assuming
    1. no significant organic growth or turnaround from upgrades and new products,
    2. no relief in or hedging of currencies relative to the dollar,
    3. ongoing significant CAPEX needs and costs using a relatively high amount of leverage at high relative cost, and finally assuming
    4. that non core assets cannot be sold for signicant cash infusions or are overstated for that purpose,
    the company runs a significant risk that ongoing negative cash flow and cash burn will result in bankruptcy by 2016. That is you real thesis.
    That said, this narrative has become a crowded short trade with well over a third of the float being short while there are institutuional managers recently starting new long positions and many positive catalyts have been and should be in the near term announced that will offset or postone that outcome. For a new entrant into the recently deregulated Mexico market or for a company looking to capitalize on the World Cup/Olympics market in Brazil, NIHD could be a great pre-existing platform to build upon particularly if they are well capitalized and able to command a cheaper cost of capital to restructure debt.
    Aug 19, 2013. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NII Holdings: Misconstrued Deal Cap Rate May Fuel 26% Snapback [View article]
    I appreciate your diligent efforts to sort out the news and highlight the asset play here. However, I don't think the WS "pros" get confused or have access to resources to figure it out quickly. This news was expected and the only unknown was the price and cap rates. Retail investors will typically overreact and get caught leaning the wrong way on a given day (sometimes both ways in a day like Friday). What the WS pros will do is spin the news to their current advantage whether they are long, short or hedged by counter option positions. It was apparently easy to snuff out the short covering rally on Friday by simply "pointing out" - rightfully or wrongfully so - that they did not get a good cap rate. I noted the volume on Friday was over 9M, roughly three times normal volume. I wonder how much of that was stealth short covering in the midst of retail panic selling or aggressive shorting. Volatility and swing trades should continue in this name for the near term.
    This is definitely a crowded trade on the short side particularly in light of the ongoing efforts that will raise liquidity and facilitate the needed CAPEX spending to return to profitability. You have well pointed out the embedded asset value that could be unlocked, but for now the focus will be on earnings and cash flow.
    To your point in responding to Buffett222, I believe some firms will act to protect their institutional clients on the short side at the expense of the covered stock by issuing a "sell" rating at or near a bottom. They can always upgrade with the news later and restate their case to match the "turnaround" story that is unfolding before us. Eventually, I believe this will become a focus growth stock for the Brazil World Cup/Olympics opportunity narrative that will parallel their improving liquidity and technology upgrades that will fuel better earnings. I believe this is why are institiutional investors so interested in Brazil towers now (e.g., Soros).
    Aug 12, 2013. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NIHD Redacted Analyst Report Showing No Currency Risk [View instapost]
    I genuinely appreciate your diligent work on this stock. Having built a decent long position, days like Friday are confusing and frustrating. NIHD is for now an asset play. It is the classic story of a leveraged stock in a period of underperformance coupled with a period of competitive growth requiring significant capital expenditures. The company has huge value embedded in its business waiting to be unlocked, and operates in underdeveloped markets. That said, I would look for the Latin American markets to return to robust growth, particularly Brazil with the World Cup and Olympics coming over the next three years. Those events are already pushing investments into towers in that market (e.g., Soros) and we well know of the bidding wars that have occurred for wireless on the US. Patience should be richly rewarded.
    Aug 11, 2013. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Was An Insider At NII Holdings, I Would Love This [View article]

    I think the spinoff idea, if it can be done, would be a brilliant strategy to unlock the value embedded in the company. You quote: "we also see NIHD as a long-term "Brazilian emerald in the rough" to hold." How could this view be further bolstered by a coming World Cup (2014) and Olympics (2016) in Brazil?
    Aug 1, 2013. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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