golds

• ON: Fri Oct 3rd 13:40 PM
  Commented on:

  Nordic American Tanker: Dividend Stock Analysis

  Here is some information about a similar investment that may be of interest.
  
  TNK
  
  1. TNK Q3 income should be near Q2 due to no real significant changes
  in shipping rates for TNK vessels.
  
  2. Q4 and Q1 are typically the strongest months due to heating oil
  usage increases in N.America.
  
  3. TNK has a profit with only 6 time charters operating. The 5 extra
  spot ships are all profit.
  
  4. None of the time charters expire within the next year.
  
  5. TNK has no debt with American banks and no debt that is due within
  the next several years.
  
  6. All of the debt is hedged to create fixed interest rates.
  
  7. TNK is currently selling at a 23% yld due to general market fear
  and small company size.
  
  What does this mean.
  
  If you want income and someplace safe to wait out this economic storm
  then you have found it here. TNK is at a bottom in terms of price due
  to being lumped in with dry shippers and other shippers with uncertain
  income streams.
  
  Best Regards,
  
  View article »
• ON: Fri Oct 3rd 13:39 PM
  Commented on:

  Investing in Tankers: Ship, Ship, Hooray?

  1. TNK Q3 income should be near Q2 due to no real significant changes
  in shipping rates for TNK vessels.
  
  2. Q4 and Q1 are typically the strongest months due to heating oil
  usage increases in N.America.
  
  3. TNK has a profit with only 6 time charters operating. The 5 extra
  spot ships are all profit.
  
  4. None of the time charters expire within the next year.
  
  5. TNK has no debt with American banks and no debt that is due within
  the next several years.
  
  6. All of the debt is hedged to create fixed interest rates.
  
  7. TNK is currently selling at a 23% yld due to general market fear
  and small company size.
  
  What does this mean.
  
  If you want income and someplace safe to wait out this economic storm
  then you have found it here. TNK is at a bottom in terms of price due
  to being lumped in with dry shippers and other shippers with uncertain
  income streams.
  
  Best Regards,
  View article »
• ON: Fri Aug 8th 10:13 AM
  Commented on:

  Shipping Stocks: I'd Wait To Buy Frontline and Overseas

  I would pass on OSG and buy high dividend paying tanker companies like FRO, NAT and TNK. If times get really ugly these guys have a downside of paying decent income. So far oil shipping has totally escaped the world economic downturn. In fact rates have hit record highs recently. No matter how bad the down turn gets we will still be shipping the same amount of oil. From here in we will use ever increasing amounts of the black liquid each year until we can't produce more.
  
  Best Regards,
  
  View article »
• ON: Fri Aug 8th 10:07 AM
  Commented on:

  Nordic American Tanker: Income Strong, Raises Dividend

  Dividends are up and prices are down. I am long SB, FRO, NAT, TNK and all are currently priced at around 15-20% yields. It's a tough market when earnings increase yet share value drops. I don't see any cliffs ahead.
  
  Best Regards,
  
  View article »
• ON: Mon Jun 23rd 09:55 AM
  Commented on:

  So Is Capitalism Working, Or Not?

  At it's root we are talking about tribal power. Change the name change the face given enough time it is the same thing. Power has a natural way of organizes itself. It's an interesting but worthless debate. You can point your finger at the FED, BIS the Global Corporations, OPEC or one of many power structures that you are not a member of. It was not long ago that most of us had to bow to the king and in many places in the world (Africa) the warlord is still the norm. If you find a small enough country and get to know the players you will see this to be as true today as it has ever been. Our large national debt will be settled one way or another - inflation, war or by ever increasing GPD based upon immigration and world growth. Nationalism no longer serves as the best model for our time. It creates wars where non need exist. Most people just want life, some liberty and the pursuit of some happiness. Worldwide the rest are either beaten into dispair or are struggling for survival. Live in an emerging market (3rd world) for a couple years and you will see this to be true. However, many of these emerging markets are improving and seeing portions of their poor become middle class and the middle class increasing their quality of life. We humans are not doomed to a hellish existence, however, evolution takes time. Over the next 20 years we will see technologies come into the market place that will improve the lives of everyone on the planet.
  
  Best Regards,
  
  Optimistic Pessimist
  
  View article »
• ON: Mon Jun 23rd 08:32 AM
  Commented on:

  Are Dividend Growth Investors Idiots?

  Your portfolio or asset mix all depends on where you stand in life. If you are retired and your dividend checks are more than covering your cost of living (plus FEDlation) then you really are not missing much. With the market in it's current phase you are looking pretty smart. At some point you realize that life is more about how you spend your time than adding to the pile. Once your children are educated or maybe even funded you should try to find some enjoyment before your ticket gets punched and the big boss calls you to your final meeting. Some even believe that you should spend time helping those that have drawn bad cards (karma ect). When I was a younger man I viewed life as a war of survival. As time goes on these ideas still linger but my mind opens a bit more everday to the concept of walking instead of running. If your not careful money will become your master instead of your servant.
  
  View article »
• ON: Fri Jun 20th 01:44 AM
  Commented on:

  So Is Capitalism Working, Or Not?

  Capitalism is the economic equivalent of Darwinism mixed with Neo-Feudalism. It is mans freedom to pursue property ownership and the power that his results bring. Some of these pursuits and powers are benign and others are not. The quest of man in this endeavor is what drives many of our great human advances. It has also created some fullish waste and human suffering.
  
  It is not perfect but it is the best that man has come up with and gives everyone a chance for advancement. Since capitalism allows for the concentrated accumulation of wealth within a society it could in some ways be viewed as a new form of feudalism. Many are born with long odds to put it bluntly. Also I would argue that the rule of law tends to be twisted by powerful private and governmental actors to their interest. Unless you can change human nature then this, for now, is the best we can do. The system is also open to various forms of legal manipulation.
  
  Fareed Zakaria wrote a book titled "The Post American World" where he attempts to point out how the world in our current time is the safest and most prosperous it has every been. The growth in wealth (although very modest) in the lower and middle income earning families of the non-western world illustrates the overall forward movement of our global society and economy. He points out that the constant wars of the past two thousand years have all produced greater loss of life than we currently see in our present conflicts. The technology of today captures and magnifies every painful event.
  
  I would suggest that our Political system requires more modification than our economic. The first may even improve the second. Improvement is relative to your position in the system.
  
  Thanks for bringing up an interesting topic. Maybe you could present something on the current state and size of the derivatives business. Maybe with somE info from the BIS website or a book by Satyajit Das. Some say this could be the next shoe to drop so to speak. BS and LEH (maybe soon) were saved for some reason other than to protect shareholder equity.
  
  Best Regards,
  
  GOLD,
  Optimistic Pessimist.
  
  View article »
• ON: Thu May 29th 15:00 PM
  Commented on:

  Ford’s 'Surprise' Announcement

  I agree with the Markham Lee completely. The US car industry has been slow to accept the reality that drastic change is needed. Year after year we have watched as Toyota, Honda and almost every other competitor has stolen market share and produced superior products. The years of the domestic car company's surviving based upon blind nationalistic loyalty are over. The only hope the current investors have is to replace entire levels of management with a new generation of forward thinking leaders. F and GM need silicon valley management if they hope to survive the next 10 years. The present group of rusty dinosaurs need to retire or move into the oil industry where status quo management is acceptable.
  
  These two giants are on their way out. Act accordingly.
  
  Best Regards,
  
  Nice article.
  View article »
• ON: Tue May 20th 17:41 PM
  Commented on:

  Frontline's a Buy Heading into Earnings

  If you are buying less than $250,000 worth or are willing to hold shares until Sept/Oct then save some money and buy TNK instead. FRO is maxed out.
  
  For more information see:
  
  seekingalpha.com/mb/to...
  
  View article »
• ON: Tue May 20th 17:36 PM
  Commented on:

  General Discussion on TNK

  Its a buy and Hold. We are about to receive a .70 for Q1 (May 24 exdiv). Q2 should be in the $1.00/share dividend area.
  
  We should be hitting the low $30's/share by fall if shipping rates stay strong. TNK is committed to growth and will likely take down 2-4 additional tankers this year. A secondary offering is in the cards for Q3.
  
  You will not go wrong buying this at anything under $25.00 if you are willing to wait till fall to exit. If you want low tax rate dividend income then this is better than anything on the market. No pipeline, Oil & Gas partnership or other Ltd of any type is likely to give off this income. It is recession proof to a certain degree. +/-12% cash dividend yield currently.
  
  Crammer drops the FRO name every time he gets the chance for a good reason. It makes sense. FRO is the industry leader. TNK is a much smaller player but is still selling at a discount to yield and growth.
  
  If you would have bought last Nov at the IPO or after-market you could have been in at $19.50. There was actually one point after the sub-prime crisis started making press when you could have bought in at $13.50. (Dark days)
  
  It has been under the radar since Q4 07 due to the mis-reporting of dividend income on most financial sites. (Q4 07 dividend was $.115/share but this was only for 13 days in December due to the IPO). Most sites reported it as $.115/share for the entire Q407 90 day period.
  
  The company gives very good indirect guidance if you have access to tanker spot rates.
  
  For around $2,500 per year you can buy the Clarkson Shipping Report which is a weekly report on various tanker rates. Bloomberg may have this information also.
  
  If you want a comp consider DHT with much weaker earnings. FRO is the industry leader. This stock is a Nov 07 spin-off from the larger parent company - TK Corp. TK Corp is an industry leader in tanker spot shipping management and has pre-offered to sell additional tankers to TNK when they are ready..
  
  www.teekaytankers.com/...
  See the 28 March 2008 48kb PDF for dividend guidance for Q2.
  Tanker rates averages as of last week for Q2 were (Aframax $46,000, Suezmax $72,000)
  
  I have been long since the IPO and have added to my position along the way.
  
  I believe that is fairly complete.
  
  Best Regards,
  
• ON: Tue May 13th 17:06 PM
  Commented on:

  Colfax's Solid IPO: Perfectly Positioned to Play the Asian Growth Engine

  Bill that was a very well constructed positive argument for paying $16/share for CFX today. Additionally, factoring in the growth prospects as you have laid them out then the IPO pricing of $18 share may well have been justified. Your analysis has convinced me not to short the stock. I will be watching when earnings are announced.
  
  Best Regards,
  
  
  
  View article »
• ON: Tue May 13th 16:44 PM
  Commented on:

  John Hussman: Home Price Erosion Will Continue

  I see a Stanford education was not wasted upon you. Dr. would you care to speculate as to what forms of intervention may produce positive results. I have read that in Q3 of 08 we will see the largest section of the sub-prime and Alt-A mortgage debt re-adjust. If this is true then we can expect even more foreclosures and home value declines. This leads to less consumer spending, less employment and lower corporate profits. What could the federal government due to prevent this?
  View article »
• ON: Tue May 13th 12:25 PM
  Commented on:

  Facts on Colfax - Cramer's Mad Money (5/12/08)

  READ THIS LINK BEFORE BUYING 1 SHARE OF CFX
  
  seekingalpha.com/artic...
  
  View article »
• ON: Tue May 13th 12:20 PM
  Commented on:

  Colfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing

  It's better to let some opportunities pass than put yourself in a highly risky position. I had just exited a position the day before and figured based upon the summary and the hype and the over sold nature of the IPO that I could grab a quick and small gain and be out. Today it is back up in the $22's based solely on Crammer's advise I would speculate. I have since done my homework as I typically do before entering a deal even for a small grab. This thing could go to $70/share but I personally don't see how and don't understand it. There exist many better deals than this one out there currently. The Rails brothers (the owners of CFX) have pieced this company together by acquisitions. Unfortunately they made some of the same mistakes I made by not doing there homework and ended up buying some entities with significant asbestos exposure which has killed the cash flow on CFX from 2003 till 2006. 2007 they received this big 50m reimbursement and decided it was time to get there money back. They currently have no downside with nothing in the deal but pure free equity thanks to the IPO.
  
  Here is a better explanation that I dropped on Yahoo's Finance Board yesterday.
  
  I may short this deal once I understand it better. More than likely I will leave it alone and go on to deals that I have a more complete understanding of.
  
  >>>>>&g...
  
  Here is what any Colfax investor should know.
  
  Colfax has exposure to asbestos claims which its insurance company would not pay. This has been killing earnings for years. Over the years from 2003 to 2006 Colfax paid $100m for legal expenses and asbestos claims. This is not over. They still carry more claims than coverage.
  
  After the IPO Colfax will still owe $246m in debt (loans). Most of the IPO proceeds go to pay off owners that are selling out. It was a very clever deal and the prospectus boarders on fraud in regards to novice investors.
  
  Net earnings presented in the Prospectus are as follows:
  
  2003 = EPS -0.52 (yes negative)
  2004 = EPS -0.62
  2005 = EPS -0.09
  2006 = EPS 0.07 (first year of profit)
  
  Just for perspective and your math I remind you that Colfax issued 40m shares or 43m with the green shoe (additional shares sold by the underwriter when a deal is hot). I am not sure how the deal got so hot other than hype created by a fake/misleading $1.79/eps for 2007.
  
  Here is what 2007 earnings look like if you remove the 50m insurance reimbursement from there insurance company which has resisted paying until recently.
  
  Sales 506m, CGS 330m, gen expenses 98m, R&D 4m,
  
  $506-$330-$98-$4 = 74m Income before taxes and interest payments.
  
  Subtract out 19m in interest payments (lets use 14m to reflect the re-payment of some debt)
  
  $74m - $14m = $60m
  
  Now subtract out corporate tax of 40% or $24m.
  
  $60m - $24m = $36m (NET INCOME FOR 2007 !)
  
  eps = net income / shares outstanding
  
  EPS = $36m / 43m (or $0.84EPS.)
  
  Thats pretty good but its not $1.79 eps.
  
  .84 x 20pe = $16.80 per share. Low Range
  .84 x 22pe = $18.48 per share. High Range
  
  PE's were arrived at by comparing to FLS (competitor)
  
  Nice job underwriters. Bad job investors.
  
  If someone disagrees please make a positive case using income to show me why CFX is worth more.
  
  Once again I am not short. This is my understanding of the deal but I am open to clarification.
  
  Also Q1 estimates in the prospectus of $15m Gross income (not net income) including $3m charge for more asbestos claims.
  
  They sold an old rusty Chevy with a new Mercedes price.
  
  
  Sentiment : Strong Sell
  View article »
• ON: Mon May 12th 14:26 PM
  Commented on:

  Colfax IPO Should Get Your Liquids Flowing

  CFX is a typical pump and dump. I bought this dog and was out the same day. I read the prospectus after I bought it (very very stupid). 1st time I have done this. I went with the summery info and the hype. Here is what I discovered.
  
  The inclusion of a 50m dollar payment from their insurance company for an asbestos judgment reimbursement presented a misleading EPS. Also no place in the prospectus other than the exact income sheet do they reference net income. They speak of sales and gross income only due to the fact that the price the underwriters placed on the deal is not supported by real (future) net income. They have made significant improvements in their overall sales revenues by acquisitions (Q1 estimates don't show an increase for 2008) However, their debt has increased each year and if you remove the special insurance payments from their income statement you see that they earned around $30M for 2007 or yearly EPS of $0.70. (2004,2005 and 2006 are all less) The current asbestos asset on the balance sheet does not coverage asbestos liabilities. On top of all this negative information the owners are taking this opportunities to sell many of their shares (always a bad sign I would think).
  
  1. Many asbestos claims (I think the word asbestos is used 20 times in the prospectus)
  
  2. Their insurance company has not wanted to pay the claims and therefore they have had to sue their insurance company cost millions in legal fees.
  
  3. The main venture capitalist gets to sell his shares at a huge premium paid for by the IPO (I think its around $65/share).
  
  4. The companies real EPS for 2007 for real operations and including some onetime insurance settlement is around $30M or eps of $0.70.
  
  5. Many other insiders sold there shares see Sec recent filings.
  
  6. Company has only grown through acquisitions which means more debt to grow.
  
  7. The company is not paying down all of its short and long term debt.
  
  8. Most of the IPO proceeds go to insiders trying to jump out of this burning ship.
  
  
  The only good thing about this company is that they provide a real product to a real market but with little profits for 2007 and no real growth for 2008 based upon Q108 sales estimates included in the Prospectus.
  
  Additionally, they have unlimited asbestos liability.
  
  Best of luck - short sell this dirty dog and get some of your money back !!!!!!
  View article »

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