golds's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/122419/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/97148-nordic-american-tanker-dividend-stock-analysis?source=feed#comment-272838 272838
TNK

1. TNK Q3 income should be near Q2 due to no real significant changes
in shipping rates for TNK vessels.

2. Q4 and Q1 are typically the strongest months due to heating oil
usage increases in N.America.

3. TNK has a profit with only 6 time charters operating. The 5 extra
spot ships are all profit.

4. None of the time charters expire within the next year.

5. TNK has no debt with American banks and no debt that is due within
the next several years.

6. All of the debt is hedged to create fixed interest rates.

7. TNK is currently selling at a 23% yld due to general market fear
and small company size.

What does this mean.

If you want income and someplace safe to wait out this economic storm
then you have found it here. TNK is at a bottom in terms of price due
to being lumped in with dry shippers and other shippers with uncertain
income streams.

Best Regards,
]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 13:40:26 -0400
TNK

1. TNK Q3 income should be near Q2 due to no real significant changes
in shipping rates for TNK vessels.

2. Q4 and Q1 are typically the strongest months due to heating oil
usage increases in N.America.

3. TNK has a profit with only 6 time charters operating. The 5 extra
spot ships are all profit.

4. None of the time charters expire within the next year.

5. TNK has no debt with American banks and no debt that is due within
the next several years.

6. All of the debt is hedged to create fixed interest rates.

7. TNK is currently selling at a 23% yld due to general market fear
and small company size.

What does this mean.

If you want income and someplace safe to wait out this economic storm
then you have found it here. TNK is at a bottom in terms of price due
to being lumped in with dry shippers and other shippers with uncertain
income streams.

Best Regards,
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88597-investing-in-tankers-ship-ship-hooray?source=feed#comment-272834 272834 in shipping rates for TNK vessels.

2. Q4 and Q1 are typically the strongest months due to heating oil
usage increases in N.America.

3. TNK has a profit with only 6 time charters operating. The 5 extra
spot ships are all profit.

4. None of the time charters expire within the next year.

5. TNK has no debt with American banks and no debt that is due within
the next several years.

6. All of the debt is hedged to create fixed interest rates.

7. TNK is currently selling at a 23% yld due to general market fear
and small company size.

What does this mean.

If you want income and someplace safe to wait out this economic storm
then you have found it here. TNK is at a bottom in terms of price due
to being lumped in with dry shippers and other shippers with uncertain
income streams.

Best Regards, ]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 13:39:21 -0400 in shipping rates for TNK vessels.

2. Q4 and Q1 are typically the strongest months due to heating oil
usage increases in N.America.

3. TNK has a profit with only 6 time charters operating. The 5 extra
spot ships are all profit.

4. None of the time charters expire within the next year.

5. TNK has no debt with American banks and no debt that is due within
the next several years.

6. All of the debt is hedged to create fixed interest rates.

7. TNK is currently selling at a 23% yld due to general market fear
and small company size.

What does this mean.

If you want income and someplace safe to wait out this economic storm
then you have found it here. TNK is at a bottom in terms of price due
to being lumped in with dry shippers and other shippers with uncertain
income streams.

Best Regards, ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89922-shipping-stocks-i-d-wait-to-buy-frontline-and-overseas?source=feed#comment-225964 225964
Best Regards,
]]> Fri, 08 Aug 2008 10:13:21 -0400
Best Regards,
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89998-nordic-american-tanker-income-strong-raises-dividend?source=feed#comment-225957 225957
Best Regards,
]]> Fri, 08 Aug 2008 10:07:53 -0400
Best Regards,
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82034-so-is-capitalism-working-or-not?source=feed#comment-190831 190831
Best Regards,

Optimistic Pessimist
]]> Mon, 23 Jun 2008 09:55:36 -0400
Best Regards,

Optimistic Pessimist
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81847-are-dividend-growth-investors-idiots?source=feed#comment-190739 190739 ]]> Mon, 23 Jun 2008 08:32:00 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82034-so-is-capitalism-working-or-not?source=feed#comment-188896 188896
It is not perfect but it is the best that man has come up with and gives everyone a chance for advancement. Since capitalism allows for the concentrated accumulation of wealth within a society it could in some ways be viewed as a new form of feudalism. Many are born with long odds to put it bluntly. Also I would argue that the rule of law tends to be twisted by powerful private and governmental actors to their interest. Unless you can change human nature then this, for now, is the best we can do. The system is also open to various forms of legal manipulation.

Fareed Zakaria wrote a book titled "The Post American World" where he attempts to point out how the world in our current time is the safest and most prosperous it has every been. The growth in wealth (although very modest) in the lower and middle income earning families of the non-western world illustrates the overall forward movement of our global society and economy. He points out that the constant wars of the past two thousand years have all produced greater loss of life than we currently see in our present conflicts. The technology of today captures and magnifies every painful event.

I would suggest that our Political system requires more modification than our economic. The first may even improve the second. Improvement is relative to your position in the system.

Thanks for bringing up an interesting topic. Maybe you could present something on the current state and size of the derivatives business. Maybe with somE info from the BIS website or a book by Satyajit Das. Some say this could be the next shoe to drop so to speak. BS and LEH (maybe soon) were saved for some reason other than to protect shareholder equity.

Best Regards,

GOLD,
Optimistic Pessimist.
]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 01:44:13 -0400
It is not perfect but it is the best that man has come up with and gives everyone a chance for advancement. Since capitalism allows for the concentrated accumulation of wealth within a society it could in some ways be viewed as a new form of feudalism. Many are born with long odds to put it bluntly. Also I would argue that the rule of law tends to be twisted by powerful private and governmental actors to their interest. Unless you can change human nature then this, for now, is the best we can do. The system is also open to various forms of legal manipulation.

Fareed Zakaria wrote a book titled "The Post American World" where he attempts to point out how the world in our current time is the safest and most prosperous it has every been. The growth in wealth (although very modest) in the lower and middle income earning families of the non-western world illustrates the overall forward movement of our global society and economy. He points out that the constant wars of the past two thousand years have all produced greater loss of life than we currently see in our present conflicts. The technology of today captures and magnifies every painful event.

I would suggest that our Political system requires more modification than our economic. The first may even improve the second. Improvement is relative to your position in the system.

Thanks for bringing up an interesting topic. Maybe you could present something on the current state and size of the derivatives business. Maybe with somE info from the BIS website or a book by Satyajit Das. Some say this could be the next shoe to drop so to speak. BS and LEH (maybe soon) were saved for some reason other than to protect shareholder equity.

Best Regards,

GOLD,
Optimistic Pessimist.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79306-fords-surprise-announcement?source=feed#comment-176208 176208
These two giants are on their way out. Act accordingly.

Best Regards,

Nice article.]]> Thu, 29 May 2008 15:00:51 -0400
These two giants are on their way out. Act accordingly.

Best Regards,

Nice article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78069-frontline-s-a-buy-heading-into-earnings?source=feed#comment-170732 170732
For more information see:

seekingalpha.com/mb/to...
]]> Tue, 20 May 2008 17:41:26 -0400
For more information see:

seekingalpha.com/mb/to...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77091-colfax-s-solid-ipo-perfectly-positioned-to-play-the-asian-growth-engine?source=feed#comment-167067 167067
Best Regards,


]]> Tue, 13 May 2008 17:06:15 -0400
Best Regards,


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77092-john-hussman-home-price-erosion-will-continue?source=feed#comment-167059 167059 Tue, 13 May 2008 16:44:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76946-facts-on-colfax-cramer-s-mad-money-5-12-08?source=feed#comment-166887 166887
seekingalpha.com/artic...
]]> Tue, 13 May 2008 12:25:40 -0400
seekingalpha.com/artic...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76545-colfax-ipo-should-get-your-liquids-flowing?source=feed#comment-166879 166879
Here is a better explanation that I dropped on Yahoo's Finance Board yesterday.

I may short this deal once I understand it better. More than likely I will leave it alone and go on to deals that I have a more complete understanding of.

>>>>>&g...

Here is what any Colfax investor should know.

Colfax has exposure to asbestos claims which its insurance company would not pay. This has been killing earnings for years. Over the years from 2003 to 2006 Colfax paid $100m for legal expenses and asbestos claims. This is not over. They still carry more claims than coverage.

After the IPO Colfax will still owe $246m in debt (loans). Most of the IPO proceeds go to pay off owners that are selling out. It was a very clever deal and the prospectus boarders on fraud in regards to novice investors.

Net earnings presented in the Prospectus are as follows:

2003 = EPS -0.52 (yes negative)
2004 = EPS -0.62
2005 = EPS -0.09
2006 = EPS 0.07 (first year of profit)

Just for perspective and your math I remind you that Colfax issued 40m shares or 43m with the green shoe (additional shares sold by the underwriter when a deal is hot). I am not sure how the deal got so hot other than hype created by a fake/misleading $1.79/eps for 2007.

Here is what 2007 earnings look like if you remove the 50m insurance reimbursement from there insurance company which has resisted paying until recently.

Sales 506m, CGS 330m, gen expenses 98m, R&D 4m,

$506-$330-$98-$4 = 74m Income before taxes and interest payments.

Subtract out 19m in interest payments (lets use 14m to reflect the re-payment of some debt)

$74m - $14m = $60m

Now subtract out corporate tax of 40% or $24m.

$60m - $24m = $36m (NET INCOME FOR 2007 !)

eps = net income / shares outstanding

EPS = $36m / 43m (or $0.84EPS.)

Thats pretty good but its not $1.79 eps.

.84 x 20pe = $16.80 per share. Low Range
.84 x 22pe = $18.48 per share. High Range

PE's were arrived at by comparing to FLS (competitor)

Nice job underwriters. Bad job investors.

If someone disagrees please make a positive case using income to show me why CFX is worth more.

Once again I am not short. This is my understanding of the deal but I am open to clarification.

Also Q1 estimates in the prospectus of $15m Gross income (not net income) including $3m charge for more asbestos claims.

They sold an old rusty Chevy with a new Mercedes price.


Sentiment : Strong Sell ]]> Tue, 13 May 2008 12:20:00 -0400
Here is a better explanation that I dropped on Yahoo's Finance Board yesterday.

I may short this deal once I understand it better. More than likely I will leave it alone and go on to deals that I have a more complete understanding of.

>>>>>&g...

Here is what any Colfax investor should know.

Colfax has exposure to asbestos claims which its insurance company would not pay. This has been killing earnings for years. Over the years from 2003 to 2006 Colfax paid $100m for legal expenses and asbestos claims. This is not over. They still carry more claims than coverage.

After the IPO Colfax will still owe $246m in debt (loans). Most of the IPO proceeds go to pay off owners that are selling out. It was a very clever deal and the prospectus boarders on fraud in regards to novice investors.

Net earnings presented in the Prospectus are as follows:

2003 = EPS -0.52 (yes negative)
2004 = EPS -0.62
2005 = EPS -0.09
2006 = EPS 0.07 (first year of profit)

Just for perspective and your math I remind you that Colfax issued 40m shares or 43m with the green shoe (additional shares sold by the underwriter when a deal is hot). I am not sure how the deal got so hot other than hype created by a fake/misleading $1.79/eps for 2007.

Here is what 2007 earnings look like if you remove the 50m insurance reimbursement from there insurance company which has resisted paying until recently.

Sales 506m, CGS 330m, gen expenses 98m, R&D 4m,

$506-$330-$98-$4 = 74m Income before taxes and interest payments.

Subtract out 19m in interest payments (lets use 14m to reflect the re-payment of some debt)

$74m - $14m = $60m

Now subtract out corporate tax of 40% or $24m.

$60m - $24m = $36m (NET INCOME FOR 2007 !)

eps = net income / shares outstanding

EPS = $36m / 43m (or $0.84EPS.)

Thats pretty good but its not $1.79 eps.

.84 x 20pe = $16.80 per share. Low Range
.84 x 22pe = $18.48 per share. High Range

PE's were arrived at by comparing to FLS (competitor)

Nice job underwriters. Bad job investors.

If someone disagrees please make a positive case using income to show me why CFX is worth more.

Once again I am not short. This is my understanding of the deal but I am open to clarification.

Also Q1 estimates in the prospectus of $15m Gross income (not net income) including $3m charge for more asbestos claims.

They sold an old rusty Chevy with a new Mercedes price.


Sentiment : Strong Sell ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76545-colfax-ipo-should-get-your-liquids-flowing?source=feed#comment-166387 166387
The inclusion of a 50m dollar payment from their insurance company for an asbestos judgment reimbursement presented a misleading EPS. Also no place in the prospectus other than the exact income sheet do they reference net income. They speak of sales and gross income only due to the fact that the price the underwriters placed on the deal is not supported by real (future) net income. They have made significant improvements in their overall sales revenues by acquisitions (Q1 estimates don't show an increase for 2008) However, their debt has increased each year and if you remove the special insurance payments from their income statement you see that they earned around $30M for 2007 or yearly EPS of $0.70. (2004,2005 and 2006 are all less) The current asbestos asset on the balance sheet does not coverage asbestos liabilities. On top of all this negative information the owners are taking this opportunities to sell many of their shares (always a bad sign I would think).

1. Many asbestos claims (I think the word asbestos is used 20 times in the prospectus)

2. Their insurance company has not wanted to pay the claims and therefore they have had to sue their insurance company cost millions in legal fees.

3. The main venture capitalist gets to sell his shares at a huge premium paid for by the IPO (I think its around $65/share).

4. The companies real EPS for 2007 for real operations and including some onetime insurance settlement is around $30M or eps of $0.70.

5. Many other insiders sold there shares see Sec recent filings.

6. Company has only grown through acquisitions which means more debt to grow.

7. The company is not paying down all of its short and long term debt.

8. Most of the IPO proceeds go to insiders trying to jump out of this burning ship.


The only good thing about this company is that they provide a real product to a real market but with little profits for 2007 and no real growth for 2008 based upon Q108 sales estimates included in the Prospectus.

Additionally, they have unlimited asbestos liability.

Best of luck - short sell this dirty dog and get some of your money back !!!!!!]]> Mon, 12 May 2008 14:26:50 -0400
The inclusion of a 50m dollar payment from their insurance company for an asbestos judgment reimbursement presented a misleading EPS. Also no place in the prospectus other than the exact income sheet do they reference net income. They speak of sales and gross income only due to the fact that the price the underwriters placed on the deal is not supported by real (future) net income. They have made significant improvements in their overall sales revenues by acquisitions (Q1 estimates don't show an increase for 2008) However, their debt has increased each year and if you remove the special insurance payments from their income statement you see that they earned around $30M for 2007 or yearly EPS of $0.70. (2004,2005 and 2006 are all less) The current asbestos asset on the balance sheet does not coverage asbestos liabilities. On top of all this negative information the owners are taking this opportunities to sell many of their shares (always a bad sign I would think).

1. Many asbestos claims (I think the word asbestos is used 20 times in the prospectus)

2. Their insurance company has not wanted to pay the claims and therefore they have had to sue their insurance company cost millions in legal fees.

3. The main venture capitalist gets to sell his shares at a huge premium paid for by the IPO (I think its around $65/share).

4. The companies real EPS for 2007 for real operations and including some onetime insurance settlement is around $30M or eps of $0.70.

5. Many other insiders sold there shares see Sec recent filings.

6. Company has only grown through acquisitions which means more debt to grow.

7. The company is not paying down all of its short and long term debt.

8. Most of the IPO proceeds go to insiders trying to jump out of this burning ship.


The only good thing about this company is that they provide a real product to a real market but with little profits for 2007 and no real growth for 2008 based upon Q108 sales estimates included in the Prospectus.

Additionally, they have unlimited asbestos liability.

Best of luck - short sell this dirty dog and get some of your money back !!!!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76688-need-more-oil-exposure-try-fmc-technologies?source=feed#comment-166347 166347
Here is Q1 data and guidance from TNK all packaged together in 1 place. 14% yield with higher future prospect Q2 Q3 and Q4. Tanker companies don't typically see this type of growth.



TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> Mon, 12 May 2008 13:28:22 -0400
Here is Q1 data and guidance from TNK all packaged together in 1 place. 14% yield with higher future prospect Q2 Q3 and Q4. Tanker companies don't typically see this type of growth.



TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76856-under-the-radar-news-monday?source=feed#comment-166345 166345

TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> Mon, 12 May 2008 13:24:42 -0400

TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74060-dry-bulk-shippers-good-to-go?source=feed#comment-166342 166342
TNK is where you should be (Wed May 14th EPS announcement)

TNK's parent company is TK which is the largest spot market vessel management company in the world.



TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> Mon, 12 May 2008 13:22:12 -0400
TNK is where you should be (Wed May 14th EPS announcement)

TNK's parent company is TK which is the largest spot market vessel management company in the world.



TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76107-deutsche-treat-cramer-s-lightning-round-5-6-08?source=feed#comment-166331 166331
NAT is a great company but here is one with better earnings and better upside (its parent company is TK which is the largest spot market vessel management company in the world)


TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> Mon, 12 May 2008 13:11:12 -0400
NAT is a great company but here is one with better earnings and better upside (its parent company is TK which is the largest spot market vessel management company in the world)


TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73811-tanker-stocks-bargains-here?source=feed#comment-166305 166305
Here is where the money is read the data and you decide.

TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> Mon, 12 May 2008 12:46:21 -0400
Here is where the money is read the data and you decide.

TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/56405-energy-trader-o-day-and-n-a-natural-gas-tankers?source=feed#comment-166302 166302

TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> Mon, 12 May 2008 12:43:49 -0400

TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75784-nordic-american-tanker-s-nice-dividend-boost?source=feed#comment-166291 166291
TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> Mon, 12 May 2008 12:25:00 -0400
TNK presentation

Q1 EPS = $0.76
YRLY EPS = $3.04

The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
www.teekaytankers.com/...
download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

04/04/08
VLCC $95,263
SUEZMAX $60,471
AfraMAX $41,447

I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
05/02/08
VLCC $96,718
SUEZMAN $72,152
AFRAMAX $46,545

For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

Current Q1 spot rates

20,000 = dividend $1.64
25,000 = dividend $1.99
30,000 = dividend $2.34
35,000 = dividend $2.69
40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76476-retail-sale-cramer-s-stop-trading-5-8-08?source=feed#comment-165464 165464
It's a $30 stock trading at $21.40 today.
]]> Sat, 10 May 2008 11:45:31 -0400
It's a $30 stock trading at $21.40 today.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75600-buying-fertilizer-stocks-in-lieu-of-camel-futures?source=feed#comment-162867 162867
The first being Eli Hoffmann. Thank you for the daily updates. I also use 24/7 wall which provides fairly current market info.

Nice article. It's nice to see someone that doesn't lump all commodities together and can see the play that is still left in fertilizer. Just like every stock that drops by 1/2 is not necessary cheap. Every stock that has a monumental rise is not necessary expensive. As with every ass class (expect maybe fine art and luxury homes) Income = value. JP Morgan who is no newcomer to this game and maybe could be considered by some to be the king of the hill in the investment banking game is calling POT 2009 eps at $18. Yes 2009 is far off, but, what if they are right. Where does that put POT. Could someone comment on the 3 for 1 split that POT has listed on there website. That would make a catchy HEADLINE and would likely create many links for SA. ]]> Tue, 06 May 2008 15:54:32 -0400
The first being Eli Hoffmann. Thank you for the daily updates. I also use 24/7 wall which provides fairly current market info.

Nice article. It's nice to see someone that doesn't lump all commodities together and can see the play that is still left in fertilizer. Just like every stock that drops by 1/2 is not necessary cheap. Every stock that has a monumental rise is not necessary expensive. As with every ass class (expect maybe fine art and luxury homes) Income = value. JP Morgan who is no newcomer to this game and maybe could be considered by some to be the king of the hill in the investment banking game is calling POT 2009 eps at $18. Yes 2009 is far off, but, what if they are right. Where does that put POT. Could someone comment on the 3 for 1 split that POT has listed on there website. That would make a catchy HEADLINE and would likely create many links for SA. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74234-potash-fertilizer-industry-the-week-that-was?source=feed#comment-162662 162662 May 6, 2008 10:44:00 AM
View Additional Profiles

BMO Capital said Sinofert Holdings, the largest distributor of imported fertilizers in China, expects a 3M ton shortfall in China this year. The firm views this as positive for POT and pricing.

3,000,000 tons shortfall.

IPI the largest US supplier only makes 980,000 tons at full capacity !

Pot is going UP UP UP.
]]> Tue, 06 May 2008 11:57:46 -0400 May 6, 2008 10:44:00 AM
View Additional Profiles

BMO Capital said Sinofert Holdings, the largest distributor of imported fertilizers in China, expects a 3M ton shortfall in China this year. The firm views this as positive for POT and pricing.

3,000,000 tons shortfall.

IPI the largest US supplier only makes 980,000 tons at full capacity !

Pot is going UP UP UP.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75344-a-safe-way-to-play-potash-corp?source=feed#comment-161986 161986
Good idea buy you will have to get a bit more aggressive on the strike. POT hasn't even started to realize the full increase in Potash prices. You could be selling 160's or 180's with a high degree of safety and bigger premiums.

Best,]]> Mon, 05 May 2008 09:58:02 -0400
Good idea buy you will have to get a bit more aggressive on the strike. POT hasn't even started to realize the full increase in Potash prices. You could be selling 160's or 180's with a high degree of safety and bigger premiums.

Best,]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75344-a-safe-way-to-play-potash-corp?source=feed#comment-161983 161983
Nice idea but you may need to up your strike a bit to find buyers. ]]> Mon, 05 May 2008 09:54:53 -0400
Nice idea but you may need to up your strike a bit to find buyers. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74970-as-with-fertilizer-commodities-pot-bubbles?source=feed#comment-161247 161247
If you look back to Jan 16th it did the same thing. Ran up and sold off back to the 50 DMA. It took 5 trading days to hit bottom and 5 to come back to its previous high. That is a fast turn around. This time around we hit major resistance on day 4 (May 1st) at $175 instead of the $168/share 50 DMA. This occurred with considerable negative chatter of the FED putting future rates on hold, commodity crashes and random deception and ignorance across the board. In the end Income = Value. It might not be a straight line but income will always assert itself.

I believe we will hold on Monday May 5th and 5 days out we will be in the upper 190's or low 200's back were we started on April 28th. I believe we will not return to the magic $168 / 50 DMA this time due to all the positive information about 2008 earnings and 2009 earnings. JP Morgan who has seldom missed a call and has POT 2008 EPS at $11 and 2009 at $18/EPS. Gas & oil trust, tankers, and utils that are valued solely on current income have higher PE's then this with low growth.

So what if hedges and private equity want to "sector rotate" selloff for greener pastures (faster profits). Who can blame them; they are up $40/share on 1,000,000 shares or more typically. Most of them need to grab whatever money they can after all the losses they have taken on financials, homebuilders, insurance, ect. We still have 73% Institutional ownership on POT, 64% on MOS, 58% on AGU and who knows how much on the new IPO deal (IPI). Retail ( that is us ) and the long money institutions are not going anywhere anytime soon. Why would you sell off now when you have an 64% EPS increase coming next year.

The correction happened and it will not last long. Potash prices are real and not speculative. Israel just sold $650/ton pot to China last week.


No shorts in sight as of last week POT has 1% short float, AGU has 1.12%, and MOS has 2.68%.
Compare this to say Lennar Homes of 26%, Citi Group 12.85%.
Now think IBM short float 1.28%.
Which camp is POT in?

Best Regards,
]]> Sat, 03 May 2008 17:35:31 -0400
If you look back to Jan 16th it did the same thing. Ran up and sold off back to the 50 DMA. It took 5 trading days to hit bottom and 5 to come back to its previous high. That is a fast turn around. This time around we hit major resistance on day 4 (May 1st) at $175 instead of the $168/share 50 DMA. This occurred with considerable negative chatter of the FED putting future rates on hold, commodity crashes and random deception and ignorance across the board. In the end Income = Value. It might not be a straight line but income will always assert itself.

I believe we will hold on Monday May 5th and 5 days out we will be in the upper 190's or low 200's back were we started on April 28th. I believe we will not return to the magic $168 / 50 DMA this time due to all the positive information about 2008 earnings and 2009 earnings. JP Morgan who has seldom missed a call and has POT 2008 EPS at $11 and 2009 at $18/EPS. Gas & oil trust, tankers, and utils that are valued solely on current income have higher PE's then this with low growth.

So what if hedges and private equity want to "sector rotate" selloff for greener pastures (faster profits). Who can blame them; they are up $40/share on 1,000,000 shares or more typically. Most of them need to grab whatever money they can after all the losses they have taken on financials, homebuilders, insurance, ect. We still have 73% Institutional ownership on POT, 64% on MOS, 58% on AGU and who knows how much on the new IPO deal (IPI). Retail ( that is us ) and the long money institutions are not going anywhere anytime soon. Why would you sell off now when you have an 64% EPS increase coming next year.

The correction happened and it will not last long. Potash prices are real and not speculative. Israel just sold $650/ton pot to China last week.


No shorts in sight as of last week POT has 1% short float, AGU has 1.12%, and MOS has 2.68%.
Compare this to say Lennar Homes of 26%, Citi Group 12.85%.
Now think IBM short float 1.28%.
Which camp is POT in?

Best Regards,
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74970-as-with-fertilizer-commodities-pot-bubbles?source=feed#comment-159784 159784
There may be 300 years of Potash in the ground. That is a good thing for a potash mining company that owns those resources or leases them. Income = value at the end of the day. Hedge & private equity may play with the stock but when all is said and done its income that creates value. If you would do just a bit more research you would find that currently yearly production (that potash that can actually be removed from the earth in a year) is short demand. This is evidenced in the fact that we have seen a 100% increase in potash/ton pricing since Nov 2007. This is the reason a farmer or industrial user would pay more. This, short of a monopoly situation, is the only reason anyone pays more for a product. This is even more true in the case of quasi commodity products like fertilizer. The current potash/ton pricing direct from the companies sales sheet effective June 1st from their warehouse FOB is $565. If you are unsure email investor relations and they will produce a copy for you. Additionally, there are many indicators that this price will press beyond this level over the next 12 months and further upside over 24 months. See JP Morgan, RBC, Citibank analyst recent comments and income and price targets. If you have not seen Bloomberg, NY Times, or any other major business or general news provider recently you would not know about all of the chatter of food shortages around the world. Americans feel it last as they typically have enough money to outbid poor nations for food. I don't mean to be overly critical of your article. Your analysis is that of a freshman college student trying to bluff there way through an economics 101 exam. Pot was selling at retail once it hit the $215 area. Fast money doesn't have much patience when they don't see much more upside and therefore you see POT today at $180. They are banking there profit and some are moving on. We have no guarantee by far that we will hit $1,000/ton potash. However, I don't see many shorts on POT and there is a reason for that. Nice try kid. I am sure you could have constructed a better negative argument for POT. Not a strong one but at least one with some logic to it and without so many elemental errors. Next time do some more work before you talk and someone might listen.]]> Wed, 30 Apr 2008 19:32:04 -0400
There may be 300 years of Potash in the ground. That is a good thing for a potash mining company that owns those resources or leases them. Income = value at the end of the day. Hedge & private equity may play with the stock but when all is said and done its income that creates value. If you would do just a bit more research you would find that currently yearly production (that potash that can actually be removed from the earth in a year) is short demand. This is evidenced in the fact that we have seen a 100% increase in potash/ton pricing since Nov 2007. This is the reason a farmer or industrial user would pay more. This, short of a monopoly situation, is the only reason anyone pays more for a product. This is even more true in the case of quasi commodity products like fertilizer. The current potash/ton pricing direct from the companies sales sheet effective June 1st from their warehouse FOB is $565. If you are unsure email investor relations and they will produce a copy for you. Additionally, there are many indicators that this price will press beyond this level over the next 12 months and further upside over 24 months. See JP Morgan, RBC, Citibank analyst recent comments and income and price targets. If you have not seen Bloomberg, NY Times, or any other major business or general news provider recently you would not know about all of the chatter of food shortages around the world. Americans feel it last as they typically have enough money to outbid poor nations for food. I don't mean to be overly critical of your article. Your analysis is that of a freshman college student trying to bluff there way through an economics 101 exam. Pot was selling at retail once it hit the $215 area. Fast money doesn't have much patience when they don't see much more upside and therefore you see POT today at $180. They are banking there profit and some are moving on. We have no guarantee by far that we will hit $1,000/ton potash. However, I don't see many shorts on POT and there is a reason for that. Nice try kid. I am sure you could have constructed a better negative argument for POT. Not a strong one but at least one with some logic to it and without so many elemental errors. Next time do some more work before you talk and someone might listen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73800-intrepid-potash-ipo-soaring-shares-signal-fertilizer-bubble?source=feed#comment-156279 156279
RECENT COMMENTS:
Potash-POT CEO says forecast does not include $1,000/ton for Potash-Bloomberg
Apr 24, 2008 1:34:00 PM

Follow-up: Potash markets remain essentially sold out@JPMS
Apr 23, 2008 2:04:00 PM
View Additional Profiles

JP Morgan said potash price of $1000/mt will likely provoke a customer response but that global potash markets are essentially sold out. The analyst believes a more more measured pace of increases will smooth customer acceptance.

Citigroup said BPC/Russia raised potash prices to $1000/ton from a recent spot price of $750/ton effective July 1. The firm expects North American producers to follow.

Anything over $550/ton puts IPI investors in the money. Think Q2-Q3 08. We haven't hit North American planting season yet.

Best Regards]]> Fri, 25 Apr 2008 00:18:13 -0400
RECENT COMMENTS:
Potash-POT CEO says forecast does not include $1,000/ton for Potash-Bloomberg
Apr 24, 2008 1:34:00 PM

Follow-up: Potash markets remain essentially sold out@JPMS
Apr 23, 2008 2:04:00 PM
View Additional Profiles

JP Morgan said potash price of $1000/mt will likely provoke a customer response but that global potash markets are essentially sold out. The analyst believes a more more measured pace of increases will smooth customer acceptance.

Citigroup said BPC/Russia raised potash prices to $1000/ton from a recent spot price of $750/ton effective July 1. The firm expects North American producers to follow.

Anything over $550/ton puts IPI investors in the money. Think Q2-Q3 08. We haven't hit North American planting season yet.

Best Regards]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59410-dividend-recovery-makes-teloz-a-buy-and-hold?source=feed#comment-109399 109399 Thu, 10 Jan 2008 09:55:51 -0500