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    • Mon May 12th 13:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Need More Oil Exposure? Try FMC Technologies
      Oil exposure is risky at this level except for moving oil. IPO tanker company from last November is making some significant progress. Q4 07 earnings were $0.115 but for only 13 days of December due to the IPO.

      Here is Q1 data and guidance from TNK all packaged together in 1 place. 14% yield with higher future prospect Q2 Q3 and Q4. Tanker companies don't typically see this type of growth.



      TNK presentation

      Q1 EPS = $0.76
      YRLY EPS = $3.04

      The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

      link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
      www.teekaytankers.com/...
      download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

      Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

      04/04/08
      VLCC $95,263
      SUEZMAX $60,471
      AfraMAX $41,447

      I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
      The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


      Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
      05/02/08
      VLCC $96,718
      SUEZMAN $72,152
      AFRAMAX $46,545

      For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

      Current Q1 spot rates

      20,000 = dividend $1.64
      25,000 = dividend $1.99
      30,000 = dividend $2.34
      35,000 = dividend $2.69
      40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

      Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).
      View article »
    • Mon May 12th 13:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Under The Radar News - Monday
      Eli I don't know how to reach you directly. TNK Wednesday announce may look something like this.


      TNK presentation

      Q1 EPS = $0.76
      YRLY EPS = $3.04

      The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

      link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
      www.teekaytankers.com/...
      download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

      Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

      04/04/08
      VLCC $95,263
      SUEZMAX $60,471
      AfraMAX $41,447

      I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
      The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


      Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
      05/02/08
      VLCC $96,718
      SUEZMAN $72,152
      AFRAMAX $46,545

      For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

      Current Q1 spot rates

      20,000 = dividend $1.64
      25,000 = dividend $1.99
      30,000 = dividend $2.34
      35,000 = dividend $2.69
      40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

      Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).
      View article »
    • Mon May 12th 13:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dry Bulk Shippers: Good to Go
      Don't pay for low returns in shipping. Oil we keep on being moved while US economy is no place close to a recover if you are using housing as your prime marker (which you should be). It's the consumers foundation.

      TNK is where you should be (Wed May 14th EPS announcement)

      TNK's parent company is TK which is the largest spot market vessel management company in the world.



      TNK presentation

      Q1 EPS = $0.76
      YRLY EPS = $3.04

      The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

      link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
      www.teekaytankers.com/...
      download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

      Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

      04/04/08
      VLCC $95,263
      SUEZMAX $60,471
      AfraMAX $41,447

      I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
      The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


      Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
      05/02/08
      VLCC $96,718
      SUEZMAN $72,152
      AFRAMAX $46,545

      For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

      Current Q1 spot rates

      20,000 = dividend $1.64
      25,000 = dividend $1.99
      30,000 = dividend $2.34
      35,000 = dividend $2.69
      40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

      Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).
      View article »
    • Mon May 12th 13:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Deutsche Treat - Cramer's Lightning Round (5/6/08)
      Crammer caught onto NAT 3 days after earnings. Here is some real information 2 days before earnings.

      NAT is a great company but here is one with better earnings and better upside (its parent company is TK which is the largest spot market vessel management company in the world)


      TNK presentation

      Q1 EPS = $0.76
      YRLY EPS = $3.04

      The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

      link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
      www.teekaytankers.com/...
      download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

      Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

      04/04/08
      VLCC $95,263
      SUEZMAX $60,471
      AfraMAX $41,447

      I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
      The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


      Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
      05/02/08
      VLCC $96,718
      SUEZMAN $72,152
      AFRAMAX $46,545

      For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

      Current Q1 spot rates

      20,000 = dividend $1.64
      25,000 = dividend $1.99
      30,000 = dividend $2.34
      35,000 = dividend $2.69
      40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

      Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).
      View article »
    • Mon May 12th 12:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tanker Stocks: Bargains Here?
      All of the above companies are good but some are better yeilds with better future potential than others. Here is one that has been under the radar due to Q4 earnings illusions. Q4 earnings of TNK came out at $0.115 per share (however this was only for 13 days due to their IPO0. Their parent company is TK which is the largest spot market vessel management company in the world)

      Here is where the money is read the data and you decide.

      TNK presentation

      Q1 EPS = $0.76
      YRLY EPS = $3.04

      The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

      link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
      www.teekaytankers.com/...
      download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

      Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

      04/04/08
      VLCC $95,263
      SUEZMAX $60,471
      AfraMAX $41,447

      I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
      The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


      Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
      05/02/08
      VLCC $96,718
      SUEZMAN $72,152
      AFRAMAX $46,545

      For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

      Current Q1 spot rates

      20,000 = dividend $1.64
      25,000 = dividend $1.99
      30,000 = dividend $2.34
      35,000 = dividend $2.69
      40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

      Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).
      View article »
    • Mon May 12th 12:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Energy Trader: O-Day and N.A. Natural Gas & Tankers
      Gas tankers will not give you these returns. TNK oil tankers are a spin off of TK which is the largest spot market vessel management company in the world)


      TNK presentation

      Q1 EPS = $0.76
      YRLY EPS = $3.04

      The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

      link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
      www.teekaytankers.com/...
      download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

      Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

      04/04/08
      VLCC $95,263
      SUEZMAX $60,471
      AfraMAX $41,447

      I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
      The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


      Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
      05/02/08
      VLCC $96,718
      SUEZMAN $72,152
      AFRAMAX $46,545

      For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

      Current Q1 spot rates

      20,000 = dividend $1.64
      25,000 = dividend $1.99
      30,000 = dividend $2.34
      35,000 = dividend $2.69
      40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

      Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).
      View article »
    • Mon May 12th 12:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nordic American Tanker's Nice Dividend Boost
      NAT is a good company but here is a better company with upside surprise on Wednesday.

      TNK presentation

      Q1 EPS = $0.76
      YRLY EPS = $3.04

      The company just bought two new Suezmax tankers on credit and you can see that the profits will go up based upon this purchase and the currently highly spot rates. Download the guidance chart from TNK directly.

      link to divided payout schedule (guidance chart) based upon spot rates
      www.teekaytankers.com/...
      download 48kb 3 page file and look at dividend spreadsheet.

      Here is the data you need to do the calculations - this data was acquired from a professional source confirmed to be accurate with TNK.

      04/04/08
      VLCC $95,263
      SUEZMAX $60,471
      AfraMAX $41,447

      I watch and record the weekly spot averages for all tanker types.
      The above list is the Average tanker daily spot rate as of the end of Q1. Q2 is higher already.


      Here is the latest average including every week from Jan 1 to today.
      05/02/08
      VLCC $96,718
      SUEZMAN $72,152
      AFRAMAX $46,545

      For those of you too lazy to download this critical guidance here is the brief summary.

      Current Q1 spot rates

      20,000 = dividend $1.64
      25,000 = dividend $1.99
      30,000 = dividend $2.34
      35,000 = dividend $2.69
      40,000 = dividend $3.04 ***** here we are

      Download the full chart to see how the two new suezmax tankers effect income (its dramatic).
      View article »
    • Sat May 10th 11:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Retail Sale - Cramer's Stop Trading! (5/8/08)
      JIM you missed TNK. It's a new tanker company, low debt, and its parent is TK corp which manages 1/2 or more of the worlds spot market. Expect $3.40/eps compared to $1.80 estimates.

      It's a $30 stock trading at $21.40 today.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 15:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buying Fertilizer Stocks In Lieu of Camel Futures
      A second wise man is found posting on Seeking Alpha!

      The first being Eli Hoffmann. Thank you for the daily updates. I also use 24/7 wall which provides fairly current market info.

      Nice article. It's nice to see someone that doesn't lump all commodities together and can see the play that is still left in fertilizer. Just like every stock that drops by 1/2 is not necessary cheap. Every stock that has a monumental rise is not necessary expensive. As with every ass class (expect maybe fine art and luxury homes) Income = value. JP Morgan who is no newcomer to this game and maybe could be considered by some to be the king of the hill in the investment banking game is calling POT 2009 eps at $18. Yes 2009 is far off, but, what if they are right. Where does that put POT. Could someone comment on the 3 for 1 split that POT has listed on there website. That would make a catchy HEADLINE and would likely create many links for SA.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 11:57 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash/Fertilizer Industry: The Week That Was
      Potash-POT: Sinofert says they will have a 3M shortfall, a positive for POT@BMOC
      May 6, 2008 10:44:00 AM
      View Additional Profiles

      BMO Capital said Sinofert Holdings, the largest distributor of imported fertilizers in China, expects a 3M ton shortfall in China this year. The firm views this as positive for POT and pricing.

      3,000,000 tons shortfall.

      IPI the largest US supplier only makes 980,000 tons at full capacity !

      Pot is going UP UP UP.
      View article »
    • Mon May 5th 09:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Safe Way to Play Potash Corp.
      No one is buying $120 Jan 09 Puts. You would have to be Putz to buy 09 120strike Puts.

      Good idea buy you will have to get a bit more aggressive on the strike. POT hasn't even started to realize the full increase in Potash prices. You could be selling 160's or 180's with a high degree of safety and bigger premiums.

      Best,
      View article »
    • Mon May 5th 09:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Safe Way to Play Potash Corp.
      That would be great if anyone was willing to buy Jan 09 120strikes. The chance of POT which will have 2009 EPS of between $14.50 low to $19.50 high hitting anything lower than $200/share is very very low.

      Nice idea but you may need to up your strike a bit to find buyers.
      View article »
    • Sat May 3rd 17:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As With Fertilizer Commodities, POT Bubbles
      We had our POT sell-off starting on April 28th.

      If you look back to Jan 16th it did the same thing. Ran up and sold off back to the 50 DMA. It took 5 trading days to hit bottom and 5 to come back to its previous high. That is a fast turn around. This time around we hit major resistance on day 4 (May 1st) at $175 instead of the $168/share 50 DMA. This occurred with considerable negative chatter of the FED putting future rates on hold, commodity crashes and random deception and ignorance across the board. In the end Income = Value. It might not be a straight line but income will always assert itself.

      I believe we will hold on Monday May 5th and 5 days out we will be in the upper 190's or low 200's back were we started on April 28th. I believe we will not return to the magic $168 / 50 DMA this time due to all the positive information about 2008 earnings and 2009 earnings. JP Morgan who has seldom missed a call and has POT 2008 EPS at $11 and 2009 at $18/EPS. Gas & oil trust, tankers, and utils that are valued solely on current income have higher PE's then this with low growth.

      So what if hedges and private equity want to "sector rotate" selloff for greener pastures (faster profits). Who can blame them; they are up $40/share on 1,000,000 shares or more typically. Most of them need to grab whatever money they can after all the losses they have taken on financials, homebuilders, insurance, ect. We still have 73% Institutional ownership on POT, 64% on MOS, 58% on AGU and who knows how much on the new IPO deal (IPI). Retail ( that is us ) and the long money institutions are not going anywhere anytime soon. Why would you sell off now when you have an 64% EPS increase coming next year.

      The correction happened and it will not last long. Potash prices are real and not speculative. Israel just sold $650/ton pot to China last week.


      No shorts in sight as of last week POT has 1% short float, AGU has 1.12%, and MOS has 2.68%.
      Compare this to say Lennar Homes of 26%, Citi Group 12.85%.
      Now think IBM short float 1.28%.
      Which camp is POT in?

      Best Regards,
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 30th 19:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As With Fertilizer Commodities, POT Bubbles
      Your analysis is lacking in very basic elements (reason, understanding of financial valuation, understanding of the industry and specific company you are writing about). How does something like that happen. Who gave you the spot light? I think everything has been said above, but in the event that you didn't get it.

      There may be 300 years of Potash in the ground. That is a good thing for a potash mining company that owns those resources or leases them. Income = value at the end of the day. Hedge & private equity may play with the stock but when all is said and done its income that creates value. If you would do just a bit more research you would find that currently yearly production (that potash that can actually be removed from the earth in a year) is short demand. This is evidenced in the fact that we have seen a 100% increase in potash/ton pricing since Nov 2007. This is the reason a farmer or industrial user would pay more. This, short of a monopoly situation, is the only reason anyone pays more for a product. This is even more true in the case of quasi commodity products like fertilizer. The current potash/ton pricing direct from the companies sales sheet effective June 1st from their warehouse FOB is $565. If you are unsure email investor relations and they will produce a copy for you. Additionally, there are many indicators that this price will press beyond this level over the next 12 months and further upside over 24 months. See JP Morgan, RBC, Citibank analyst recent comments and income and price targets. If you have not seen Bloomberg, NY Times, or any other major business or general news provider recently you would not know about all of the chatter of food shortages around the world. Americans feel it last as they typically have enough money to outbid poor nations for food. I don't mean to be overly critical of your article. Your analysis is that of a freshman college student trying to bluff there way through an economics 101 exam. Pot was selling at retail once it hit the $215 area. Fast money doesn't have much patience when they don't see much more upside and therefore you see POT today at $180. They are banking there profit and some are moving on. We have no guarantee by far that we will hit $1,000/ton potash. However, I don't see many shorts on POT and there is a reason for that. Nice try kid. I am sure you could have constructed a better negative argument for POT. Not a strong one but at least one with some logic to it and without so many elemental errors. Next time do some more work before you talk and someone might listen.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 00:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble?
      Those of us who have truly done our homework know we are currently in at around retail pricing with a 22 pe and are speculating that potash/ton prices will go up. We are in at $500-550/ton so to speak. The underwriters would be drinking and eating well tonight if this wasn't only 1 of 3 decent deals to hit the market this year. In this case I believe this retail price will turn to wholesale soon enough.

      RECENT COMMENTS:
      Potash-POT CEO says forecast does not include $1,000/ton for Potash-Bloomberg
      Apr 24, 2008 1:34:00 PM

      Follow-up: Potash markets remain essentially sold out@JPMS
      Apr 23, 2008 2:04:00 PM
      View Additional Profiles

      JP Morgan said potash price of $1000/mt will likely provoke a customer response but that global potash markets are essentially sold out. The analyst believes a more more measured pace of increases will smooth customer acceptance.

      Citigroup said BPC/Russia raised potash prices to $1000/ton from a recent spot price of $750/ton effective July 1. The firm expects North American producers to follow.

      Anything over $550/ton puts IPI investors in the money. Think Q2-Q3 08. We haven't hit North American planting season yet.

      Best Regards
      View article »
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