Arohan

http://www.arohanvalue.com
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39 Comments

    • Tue Jan 8th 14:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      American Capital's Value Continues To Improve Despite Writedowns
      Agree with your positive take on ACAS. Street.com has it wrong (once again) but the problem is that there is no rebuttal that the company will put out to street.com's stance. In the long term though, the returns to the shareholders will do the talking

      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Thu Jan 3rd 10:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jingle Mail, in Practice
      Is this a real story? I have hard time believing that the bank would approve a new loan for $500K worth of real estate unless of course the individual in question can fully doc viability of 1300K worth of debt. In that case, if this person now decides to break the loan contract with Countrywide, it is very very difficult to fault Countrywide.

      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Thu Dec 27th 11:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Consumer Spending is Up, But at What Cost?
      This is quite scary. There was too much excess in the system and some sort of sanity reset is much needed. There is too much emphasis put on increasing same store sales, etc and people are encouraged to consume out of recession, but this may not be the best for the long term. You want consumption, but quality consumption and hopefully there is a happy medium that maximizes consumer value and producer value

      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Fri Dec 21st 11:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Syntax-Brillian: A Classic Bottom
      Great level headed analysis! The doom and gloom around the stock is amazing, and as value investors, this is an opportunity that rarely comes by. We are buyers at this level

      I have also written more on Syntax-Brillian at arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Tue Dec 18th 15:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Countrywide Financial Hasn't Failed - To Disappoint
      Fears are overdone. Mozillo maybe too optimistic in some eyes but he is also an excellent operator. We will soon know if CFC's view of future profitability pans out in reality, but one thing is for sure, CFC is too big to fail.

      I agree with the author that the stock is very close to the bottom, if not already there. Therefore, and knowing with great probability that CFC will not fail, this is a good time to go long. Actually, this may be the best time in decades to go long on many financial names

      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Sun Dec 16th 22:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sterlite Industries India: A Steal At Present Prices
      We wrote about SLT few weeks ago at arohanvalue.blogspot.c...

      More articles at arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Wed Dec 12th 12:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bank Stocks: Dividend Yield Post Subprime Meltdown
      The dividend cut (WM) was widely expected and is in now. It is still a respectable 3.5%. Once the market comes out of the doldrums and assuming WM survives, the dividend will be ratcheted up again. So if you are investing now, you may actually get a very good yield on the money invested.

      However, the risk in WM is not something everyone is going to be comfortable with

      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Wed Dec 12th 12:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Jim Cramer's Mad Money Lightning Round, 12/11/07: Good Greif!
      Sorry Cramer, I am sticking with my buy call on CFC

      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Fri Dec 7th 22:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Syntax-Brillian: Time to Hit the Snooze Button
      "Thus, for Sony to even break even, they have to have higher margins thatn BRLC."

      Steve, I wished I understood what you mean by the statement above. May be you can research the comparative profitability in this industry to get an idea of what everyone's profit margins are

      By the way, as for your point 1 above, I was contending that LCoS accounted for a substantial number of BRLC employees, that have been let go. This will reduce SG&A significantly. I guess you do not see it this way. We will just have to wait for the next quarterly report to prove you wrong

      Also for a little perspective, 1% of revenues for BRLC amounts to 7 cents eps. So don't be so dismissive. You may have made many assumptions that you think are insignificant but they have profound impact on the final eps number. As such, your eps estimate has a very large margin of error and cannot be used for any basis for investment

      Your point number 2 does not clarify or reject what I said and there is nothing for me to add

      Good luck
      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Fri Dec 7th 02:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Syntax-Brillian: Time to Hit the Snooze Button
      1. Most of the LCoS expense was R&D with LCoS accounting for a substantial number of BRLC employees that were let go. I would not discount it

      2. If BRLC would be sold today, the mold for Olevias would be useful to the acquirer an hence the 'tooling deposits' would not be worthless

      3. Tier 1s and other lcd manufacturers run at even smaller margins than BRLC. Why do you think they can more afford to pay up for the panels than BRLC? It is also difficult for a buyer (like Sony, for example) to manipulate prices in a supply constrained situation (if you are thinking they will voluntarily pay more to ensure that BRLC is put out of business). Your arguments here do not hold water
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    • Thu Dec 6th 13:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Syntax-Brillian: Time to Hit the Snooze Button
      Something else that doesn't make sense

      This is a company that is selling today for less than net tangible assets, is profitable and based on current price of 2.7, the earnings yield at your estimated eps of 0.17, is 6.3%. So here we have almost a risk free investment, offering an yield of much greater than any risk free instrument you can find in the market, and we are looking at interest rate reductions. Also, your assumptions are very very conservative and excludes many things including the SG&A reduction that I pointed out earlier.

      Additionally, the gross margins will improve in 2008 after this temporary blip.

      This looks like a no-brainer investment right now
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    • Thu Dec 6th 12:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Syntax-Brillian: Time to Hit the Snooze Button
      I like your analysis and I will have to check out your model for eps calculations. My one comment would be with half of the sales now outsourced and on royalty model, the SG&A should go down. The reduction you show in SG&A of 15m appears to be the LCoS disposition. Best case, if it is cut in half, than that would add about 0.4 to the EPS. There are a few other things that I think are the wildcards in here

      a. Syntax-Brillian's ability to raise prices; migration towards tier 1 designation
      b. Sales in Europe and Latin America, specially with Vivitar channel in 2008
      c. Any jump in sales due to Olympics in China in 2008, and
      d. Reinvestment of SCHOT AR when paid into additional capacity (some of the panel shortage issues can be mitigated if BRLC is able to raise prices and can afford to pay a bit more for panels)

      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Thu Dec 6th 06:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      International Competition Between Syntax-Brillian and Vizio Heating Up
      Vizio wins in US? How do you know? For all you know Syntax Brillian
      may be making more PROFITs in US then Vizio, even if Vizio sells more than Syntax Brillian in US.

      Olevia can and has raised prices. Can Vizio do that? Why not? Is it because no one will pay any higher price for a TV like Vizio's that lacks quality in spades

      Is your metric just the market share? Or do you also consider profitability and growth in your investment decisions?

      Good luck Mr Sanmina in your investment decisions. Hope you lose

      -arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Wed Dec 5th 14:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As Banks Opt Out, What is the Real Purpose of Paulson's Super-SIV Plan?
      You maybe onto something here. Maybe ADIA could have gotten the equity for cheaper had they waited. Although, it is still a conjecture at this point to extend this theory to BAC and JPM. But as you said, who knows what exposure lurks unseen?

      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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    • Sun Dec 2nd 18:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's Raining Petro Dollars - One Deal at the Time
      It is just investment as you pointed out. US companies have been taking stakes overseas for a long time now and there is no reason why companies outside US cannot do it. We will see more of these kind of deals as other economies grow

      arohanvalue.blogspot.c...
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