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RS055

RS055
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  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    I think we are possibly very far apart in understanding how the world works. Good luck to you.
    Aug 15 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    Sure. And what I really want is Peace On Earth. But , if you rely on me in any way, you would want to know "what I really want" - right?
    What does the fed really have to do with unemployment? i would argue very little. There are huge tectonic forces - technology and the rapid rise of Asia - for instance that determine the employment situation. Not some wonks fiddling around with overnight interest rates.
    inflation? Well - the Fed usually moves with alacrity to distance itself from food or energy inflation - as "not my job". So what inflation do they think they control? Wages.
    So in short- the "dual mandate" is to get the hoi polloi working their tails off with minimal wage increases.
    What about that other thing - assets? That is of utmost importance to their "Base". What about the strategic use of "monetary policy" to control other nations? You really think these kind of things dont predominate?
    Aug 15 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    We live in an age of pseudo-science. ie. scientific sounding and highly complex explanations that are hard to refute, plausible and completely unhelpful.
    it is a problem in health, finance and much else that is of critical importance to the average person.
    The Fed is a foremost proponent of this pseudo-scientific gibberish technique to bludgeon the population with so much "information" that they are anaethetized and unable to think effectively.
    The only thing we need to concern ourselves with is - What Do They Really Want?
    Aug 15 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    "Transparency" is the modern way to obfuscate. Read the "Risk factors" section in any prospectus - you want transparency ? Drown in it!
    Or - read the fine print on any antibiotic that you take - you want to know side-effects? here ya go - drown in it!
    This is a cynical use of transparency - designed not to illuminate the populace, but to keep them befuddled and to provide ready cover for anything and everything that could possibly go wrong.
    In short - it is useless. It is not the kind of information one would provide to a loved one embarking on a risky venture . It is the the strategy one would use to to manipulate the riff-raff that one could'nt care less about , have nothing but contempt for, with the main goal being to protect one's self from legal difficulties if the ungrateful wretches ever decide to sue.
    Aug 15 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    Yes. Unless the economy fails to grow at the anticipated 3% rate, or earnings on the S&P estimated at $130 for 2015 start to be doubted.
    Aug 14 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    Because the meteors will actually be large flying heaps of manure and will nourish our earth. that will offset the bees dying.
    Aug 14 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    If we spent as much on figuring out what to do with incoming meteors as we do on advertising sweet fizzy drinks - we might stand a chance.
    Aug 14 01:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    Pure:
    I agree on the asteroid threat. We will be about as prepared as the little furry mammals were 65 million years ago.
    But on a geological timescale its hard to know when - next year or 1000 years from now -
    Aug 14 12:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    Pure:
    there is no need to get apocalyptic. I think its very simple - if US GDP grows at 3% for the next few quarters and S&P earnings get to $ 130 as the consensus expects - then all is well.
    I seriously doubt that. So I expect a 30 - 50% crash. Not the end of the world, just the stock market getting back to where it was in 2012.
    Aug 13 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    The power players have learned since 2001 that they have exceptional power to craft messages. Even messages that contradict facts that everyone can see with their own eyes. They can manipulate the news , they can manipulate the markets and "make their own reality". They have become more and more brazen - as their spin works so well.
    Unfortunately - the reason their spin works so well is that the US population is generally very trusting of authority which is a major reason for our success as a nation. These power players have taken Trust which is a major strength and used it against us - in a kind of judo move. But ultimately they are simply fouling the pond they swim in - unless they have some fantasy of escaping in private jets to Paraguay or Mars or something ( I would not put it beyond them to have these Neitzschean fantasies - after all they are Uber mensches).
    Aug 13 07:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    I have to imagine that the power players on wall street who see all this and are smarter and richer than us are positioning for a big decline in stocks. But they are not about to telegraph their moves so grandma can read about it in Newsweek and sell her mutual funds - are they?
    So we get this water-torture floating higher on no volume market - keeps everybody in. What are they waiting for? To get their messages coordinated, and ideally to have some external event to blame for the crash ( because we dont want people blaming the Fed or the US govt policies).
    Aug 13 07:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We Back To Bad News Is Good News? [View article]
    Nice rant. Generally agree.
    Best deal right now is 3.5% yielding 10 yr CDs. Loading up. That 3.5% is going to be hard to beat.
    Iraq is getting worse not better. We are back in bombing, sending in "military advisers" etc.
    Ukraine is getting more risky not less - Russian 'humanitarian" truck convoy heading into the country - would not be surprised to see a nice young Russian driving food and blankets for the poor Ukrainians being brutally shot - then Russia will have to send in "military advisers". Putin is not that creative - but he is not beyond shamelessly copying our techniques!
    That third ceasefire in Gaza lasted about 60 minutes! Israel sending in bombers.
    meanwhile there is the risk of global travel being badly impacted by the ebola threat.
    german GDP out in the am - likely to be bad. Japan GDP contracted at a 7% rate ( but beat expectations!).
    But no worries we dont care about any of that stuff. We are exceptional.
    Equities just a notch below all time highs.
    Aug 13 07:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Look Into Global Market Valuation [View article]
    I agree that Earnings Yield is basically showing you what you would expect to earn. That includes growth. To add growth to earnings yield is double counting .
    Dividend Yield shows you what you would expect to earn if growth stayed flat.
    Aug 13 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Graham's Formula For Value Investing: A Conservative Revision For Estimating Intrinsic Value [View article]
    In other words - you kiddies trade the stock amongst each other - just dont expect me to actually pay you any cash.
    Aug 13 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Graham's Formula For Value Investing: A Conservative Revision For Estimating Intrinsic Value [View article]
    There are of course investible assets that don't pay out any cash - paintings, rare stamps, gold coins, trophy houses and what not. These do have a value based on the prevailing culture - sometimes quite a high value.
    Aug 12 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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