My investment decisions are based on the deep understanding of my own limitations in predicting the future. I pursue opportunities that present the highest risk-adjusted return. My focus is on companies with healthy economics: flexible companies that can survive the unpredictable future and still provide value to its shareholders in the long-term.
Long-term value investor.
I'm a financial auditor that holds a BA in accounting and a MBA. I'm interested in where value can be realized. This could be a small or large cap company selling at favorable EV/EBIT or a special situation/event driven investments. Warren Buffet once said, "You have to turn over a lot of rocks to find those little anomalies" and I hope to do just that.
I am working as a Business Analyst in Germany and have started to build up a portfolio focused on Dividend Growth, both on the high and low-end yield spectrum. Primary focus is on Blue Chips with long-reaching dividend track records. I have been investing for 2 years and have been standing on the sidelines for way too long before.
I’m an early 40′s Internet entrepreneur that launched several dot coms with varying success in each. At the very least my living has been made online for the past 18 years and at the most I had a fun time in each venture.
I began seriously investing for dividend income around 2007 when my business at the time was literally falling off a cliff, as most of the world was starting too as well, when my need for another income stream became more apparent. I have always known the benefits of dividends from my very first stock purchase back in 1988 but wasn't yet sold on the concept of tying up my money indefinitely purely for a dividend income stream. It was around that time that I learned about Dividend Aristocrats and Dividend Champions when it all just made sense. I could literally see the effects of compounding dividends from these select companies and thought a nice diversified portfolio could provide me with a decent to excellent income stream decades down the road.
Seven Corners Capital Management, LLC is an investment research and advisory firm based in New York City. The firm aims to achieve investment returns by identifying (1) companies with wide competitive moats and honest and able management, trading at reasonable valuations, (2) turnaround and "asset play" opportunities (as described by Peter Lynch in his book "One Up on Wall Street") and (3) special situations (such as mergers, spinoffs and liquidations) that provide attractive returns which are non-correlated to the broader equity markets. Our hope and expectation is to achieve annual returns approximately 10% above that of the S&P 500 on a long-term basis.
I am a buy and hold common stock investor. Warren Buffett is definitely my guru. He makes the most sense to me. I began investing in the stock market at age 14 in 1970 with money earned on my paper route. What I have done since 1970 is invest primarily in the Dividend Aristocrats whenever the stock market is relatively low. I have never sold a single share of stock except on the rare occasion when one of my stocks was bought out for cash and I was forced to sell.. I keep all of my stock certificates or direct registration statements in a safe deposit box at the bank. I do not automatically reinvest dividends. I only purchase stocks when I feel that the stock market is relatively low. Brown University, B. A., 1978. Below are the 35 stocks in my portfolio.
I'm a 24 year-old who has been interested in investing for the past 3 years or so
As of 5/29/16, I own:
Ritchie Bros (used equipment auctioneer, awesome new management, impenetrable moat)
Ametek (defensive industrial + awesome manager; huge R&D/product development advantage)
KMG Chemical (Intel and STMicro's captive chip cleaning company, check out EBITDA growth for last 8 quarters; also impenetrable moat)
SunRun Inc (residential solar installer - DCF exercise. currently trading below the NPV of cash flows of its installed base, even assuming 0% renewals [analysts estimate that a reasonable renewal rate would be ~90%, I think, but it's stil priced below NPV even if you use 0% renewal rate..the zero renewal rate assumption, plus purchasing for less than NPV of cash flows, gives a nice MoS]. they're growing quickly, and the recent extension of solar/wind energy credits is a huge boon). So, trading for less than NPV of contracted cash flows, and you get the development company (e.g., growth) for free - the development company generates like $50m in NPV per quarter or something, so your intrinsic value is growing, too.
Resolute Forest Products - Basically an asset-based valuation; check out Chou Associates recent letter for breakdown. Additionally, RFP has raised prices on both it's pulp and newsprint by a huge % YTD'16, and that is all straight to the bottom line. They also have exposure to wood products for single family home construction in NE USA, and are building a tissue plant that i believe is going to supply tissue for Amazon's new private label initiatives. Only business that i don't know what to make of is uncoated/coated papers. But, the other 4 - wood products, newsprint, pulp, and tissue, all look like theyre ready to rumble.
LEE Enterprises - Buffett owns convertibles on this (I think, i might be wrong - Berkshire does own some stock, though, interestingly, and we know buffet loves tiny local newspapers, which is LEEs thing) - after they finish burning their NOLs, acquisition target. Best-managed newspaper company like ever - their margins are insane. Margins stable, revenue declining, so EBITDA declining. But they're retiring debt, and lowering interest payments, faster than ebitda declines. So, unlevered FCF is declining a couple percent per year, but levered FCF is actually increasing. Currently trades at 4.5x ebitda. Stock at $2. Should retire $1.20 in debt over NTM. don't think multiple can compress much more - assuming no change to the multiple, and $1.20 in debt retirement in NTM, >50% upside in 1 yr just from converting debt to equity.
Innoviva - Owned by GSK and Baupost. Basically, royalties from GSK's BREO/Anoro COPD/asthma medicine. Potential to generate $100s of millions in royalty revenue a few years out, and super low cost structure - implies hundreds of millions in FCF.
Omegaflex - $350 mkt cap, $16m in reported NI for 2015. They are 1 of 2 manufacturers of csst, which is flexible steel hosing that connects gas utility lines to homes - levered to single family home construction. NI depressed by legal expenses arising from product liability court cases - all of the cases against them, they've won (6 in a row). in fact, Pennsylvania supreme court changed product liability law just for OFLX. An Ohio judge threw out a case, and told the lawyer he was not allowed to correct the lawsuit and refile. Total claim exposure has decreased 40% in last 4 quarters, but legal expenses haven't followed yet. Eventualy, legal expense will be gone, adding $3.5m to NI. Additionally, growing revenue by high single digits per year, and GM is like 90% - contribution from sales to after-tax NI is like 55%+. So, grow sales by $8m, implies NI growth of $4-5m. 2015 NI of $16m, plus legal costs (should go away) gets us to ~$19m after tax NI. Then, if 2016 sales grow by $8m, which is the same as 2015 growth, we get another 4-5m in NI by end of 2016. Gets us to $23m in ttm NI at YE 2016. If sales grow by $8m in 2017, and NI by 4-5m, looking at $27-28m in NI in 2017. On a 20x forward multiple, that's a $560m market cap, or 60% upside, and growing.
SunEdison SemiConductor - one of 4 major wafer producers in the world. 2 of the other 3 have 30% MS each, and SEMI and one other each have 10-15%. OVercapacity meant declining prices until 2015.2015 saw cap utilization breach 85% or something, which means prices shouldve gone up; but, their major competitors are Japanese, and the yen devalued significantly in 2015. This brought further pricing pressure. However, no new capacity has been added for a long time, wafer demand has continued to increase (IoT, datacenter, cloud, etc), so supply/demand dynamics are good. Also, japanese yen has appreciated considerably in 2016, which coupled with tight supply conditions, means massive price increases coming. On top of all of this, SEMI and Siliton (the other 15% MS player) are about to merge, and since they do the exact same thing, sell to the exact same customers, etc., there should be HUGE cost savings from reduced backoffice, reduced selling expense, and reduced R&D - the two companies will basically be able to cut OpEx in half after merging.
NIHD - owned by Aurelius and Capital World, two BK investors who own >50% of the company. They have $650 in debt, and $650 in cash (some of it restricted). They have $1b worth of spectrum licenses, per their fresh start accounting, and at least $700m worth of depreciated network infrastructure. In May 2016, the largest shareholders registered their 50% stake for sale, and they also updated the CEO separation agreement - he is set to leave by Nov 2016, which I think means a sale is coming prior to that. Who would want to buy the company? Any telecom in Brazil that needs spectrum.
Also own: BOFI, CSW Industrials, Fenix Parts, Gamestop, KLX Inc, OZM, S&W Seed, Schwab, and Wells Fargo
Our mission is simple: To help you make money. In addition to generating our own analysis, we also draw ideas from the most talented stock pickers in the traditional equity and hedge fund space.
I am a 'deep value' investor/analyst mainly focused on the US small-cap universe. I started out with a long-only bias (stocks trading close to NCAV etc.), but I have now started to focus on the short side as well. I am especially interested in instances of aggressive accounting and earnings manipulation. I am always looking to connect with fellow investors so do not hesitate to contact me!
David J. Waldron is a Seeking Alpha Performance Award winning contributor. Check out his popular article series on SA: Value Investing for Main Street™. He is author of the book, Hire Train Monitor Motivate: Build an Organization, Team, or Career of Distinction in the Transformational Workplace (Country View imprint), available at Amazon, Kindle, iBooks, B & N, Kobo, Inktera, and Smashwords. David was recently ranked a Five Star Blogger with a 40% Average Return by TipRanks for his performance on Seeking Alpha.
Founder of "The Contrarian", a premium research service, featuring the "Bet The Farm" Portfolio. Actively investing since 1995, I have soared like an eagle, and been unmercifully humbled by the markets. Achieved positive returns in 2008, and turned an account with $60,310 on 1/1/2009 into an account with $3,177,937 on 11/30/2009. My best years have been 1995-2003, 2008-2012, and 2016-????. My worst years were 2013-2015. I believe inflation is coming, and we are at an inflection point in the markets.
Twenty year career as an investment analyst, investor, portfolio manager, consultant, and writer. Founder of Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd, which was incorporated in the spring of 2009. Dyed in the wool contrarian investor, who has learned, the hard way, that a good contrarian is only contrarian 20% of the time, but being right at key inflection points is the key to meaningful wealth creation in the markets. I believe we are near a meaningful inflection point, perhaps the biggest one yet, for the third time in the past 15 years.
Historically, I have had huge wins and impressive losses based on a concentrated, contrarian strategy. Trying to keep the good while filtering out the bad.
Seeking to run an all weather portfolio with minimal volatility and index overlays to capture my strategic and tactical recommendations along with a concentrated best ideas portfolio, which is my bread and butter, but the volatility only makes it suitable for a small piece of an investor's overall portfolio. The following are a couple of my favorite investment quotes.
"Life and investing are long ballgames." Julian Robertson
"A diamond is a chunk of coal that is made good under pressure."
"Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." Albert Einstein
I’ve been on top of the world, and the world has been on top of me. I have learned to enjoy the perspective from each view, and use opportunities to persistently acquire knowledge, and enjoy the company of those around me, especially loved ones, family, and friends.
At heart, I am a market historian with an unrivaled passion for the capital markets. I have had a long history and specialization with concentrated positions and options trading. Made money in 2008 with a net long portfolio, deploying capital in some of the market's darkest hours into long positions including purchases of American Express, Atlas Energy, Crosstex, First Industrial Real Estate, General Growth Properties, Genworth, Macquarie Infrastructure, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, and Vornado near their lows. Shorting, hedging, and option strategies also helped me in 2007 and 2009, and these are skills that I have developed ever since I started trading heavily in 1996.I enjoy reading, accumulating knowledge, and putting this knowledge to work in the active capital markets, learning lessons along the way.To this day, I continue to learn, and some of these learning lessons have been excruciatingly difficult ones, especially over the past several years, as I made mistakes allocating capital, including a sizable portion of my own capital (I always invest alongside my clients), to commodity related stocks. While all commodity related stocks have struggled since April of 2011, coal companies, which attracted me due to their extremely cheap valuations, and out-of-favor status (I am a strong believer in behavioral finance alongside fundamentals and technicals) have been the worst investing mistake of my career. The focus on the commodity arena has been the biggest mistake of my investment career thus far, yet in its aftermath, I see tremendous opportunity, even larger in scope than the fortuitous 2008/2009 environment.The capital that I accumulated and the confidence gained in navigating the treacherous investment waters of 2008 gave me the confidence to launch my own investment firm in the spring of 2009, right before the ultimate lows in the stock market. At the time I was working as a senior analyst at one of the largest RIA's in the country, and I felt strongly that the market environment was the best time since 1974/1975 to start an investment firm.
Prior to starting my firm, I was a senior analyst for three different firms over approximately 10 years (Charles Schwab, Redwood, Oxford), moving up in responsibility and scope at each stop along my journey. Since I was a paperboy, I have always had an interest in the investment markets. I love researching and finding opportunities. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA, as well as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, CAIA. After starting in the teaching program at Ball State University, I switched to a career in finance when I turned a small student loan into a substantial amount of capital. I graduated summa cum laude with a degree in finance from Ball State.
Full disclosure, I am not currently a registered investment advisor, though I did serve in this capacity from 2009-2014, while owning Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd. Additionally, I held various securities licenses from 2000-2014, without a single complaint filed, and I continue to hold industry designations. At the end of 2014, I voluntarily let my state registration expire, as I transitioned the business to a different structure. Prior to this, I had passed, and held, various securities exams and licenses, including the Series 7, Series 63, and Series 65 exams, in addition to others, alongside my CFA and CAIA designations. Unfortunately, I did not file the proper paperwork to withdraw my state registration, and I did not disclose a personal arrangement, and subsequent civil case, between myself and a former close personal friend and client, that was initiated in 2011. I was unaware that I was required to disclose these items, and my securities attorney, at the time, did not advise me to do so. Previously, I had managed a portfolio for this gentleman, and we had taken an investment of approximately $7 million in 2009, and grown it to over $25 million at the beginning of 2012. After a difficult year of performance, an employee of the firm I owned, and friend, resigned in early 2013, and took the aforementioned client to a competing firm. As a result of not filing the proper paperwork, I agreed to a settlement, with a potential $2500 fine in the future, depending on if I choose to reapply to be a non-exempt advisor.
Stephen worked as a Certified Financial Planner under the umbrella of a large company for about six years. With his personal portfolio consistently out-performing his clients, due to company limitations, he became upset at the injustice. Realizing his greater value as an independent hedge fund manager, he founded Spicer Capital in 2016.
Andrew W. Slusser currently attends Stanford Graduate School of Business. Andrew has a fixed-income background, as he worked for PIMCO, Pacific Investment Management Company, in the emerging markets fixed-income group, as a Portfolio Associate, working directly for Portfolio Managers on all portfolio and trading activities, and at Morgan Stanley, in New York, as a fixed-income strategist, covering emerging market assets. While attending the LSE, Andrew spent his summers in London at Barclays Capital in Sales & Trading, working closely with the inflation-linked debt teams. Andrew holds a BSc in Economics and Economic History from the London School of Economics, graduating with First Class Honours, and is a member of the Penguin Club. Andrew plays competitive amateur golf, enjoys politics, reading and value-investing.
Brian Harper, CFA is Chief Investment Officer of Harper Asset Management, LLC, which he founded in 2001. Harper Asset Management is a value-oriented investment manager, primarily managing separate accounts for high net worth individuals. Visit us at www.harperasset.com.
Harper Asset Mgmt operates a bottom-up, fundamental, research intensive approach to investing. We focus primarily on value, special-situation, and micro-cap issues.
Adam Schwab has been a professional investor for over a decade. He is a CFA Charterholder, CPA, and has his MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He spent 7 years at the South Dakota Investment Council, one of the top-ranked pension funds in the nation over the past 30 years. He was responsible for a $200 million global equity portfolio as well as a $100 million U.S. SMID equity portfolio. He joined Elgethun Capital Management in 2014 and is a partner and portfolio manager for the firm. Elgethun is an RIA and manages $360 million in assets under management/advisement.
Adam's writing focus will cover top equity ideas, fundamental analysis and valuation topics, and behavioral investing insights.
Peter M. Lupoff is an owner-member and founded Tiburon Capital Management, an event-driven investment advisor, in 2009. Peter formerly was a Managing Director at Millennium Management, the New York based Multi-Strategy hedge fund where he managed an allocation of the Millennium Partners flagship fund employing identical event-driven strategies. Previously he was Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager of the Robeco WPG Special Situations Fund.
Mr. Lupoff's experience in deep value equity and distressed investing strategies began in 1990 where he began working with Marty Whitman of Third Avenue Funds. Peter's bottom up approach is largely informed by this experience. His acumen and theses regarding risk and trading to defend NAV are informed by his experiences with Izzy Englander and Millennium Management. Funds Mr. Lupoff have managed or co-managed have achieved awards such as GAIM's Top Performing Emerging Distressed Manager, MARHedge's Event-Driven Manager and an Institutional Investor nomination as Hedge Fund House of the Year.
Mr. Lupoff is a regular featured discussant on academic papers related to, and consultant to, The Federal Reserve Bank regarding market shocks and liquidity.
Full-time investor. Formerly buy-side credit analyst (2yrs) covering Japanese + Asian companies. Before that, I was a cross asset derivatives salesperson at a large bulge-bracket firm, based in Tokyo (4yrs). I use Seeking Alpha to clarify and synthesize my investment thought process and to elicit feedback on my theses; additionally I like to connect with other investors and swap ideas.
You can read my finance-related blog at rapercapital.com (less organized than Seeking Alpha writeups, more my random musings on various finance-related topics).
Going forward I will try to tweet my investment-related thoughts/updates to articles/etc. You can follow me on Twitter, my handle is @puppyeh1
Always looking for new ideas across the board. Happy to exchange ideas/share thoughts/swap notes, feel free to private message me. I currently live in Singapore.
After working in Leveraged Finance at RBC Capital Markets and two hedge funds that focused on special situations and distressed investments, Steven Wood, CFA started his own firm focused on generating absolute returns through conventional and unconventional means. GreenWood offers clients primarily long ideas, as well as hedge and short ideas, but gives clients complete control over their own account, and has no lockups or liquidity constraints. GreenWood manages capital for institutions (primarily family offices) and high net worth individuals, but the only requirement is a minimum investment of $10k.
I'm a Managing Director at A North Investments (ANI), a quantitative hedge fund based in New York. Those who'd like to contact me, private message me here or email me at email@example.com.
Rutger's Financial Management and Capital Markets Undergrad (Class of '19)
What You Can Expect From My Musings
- Unabashed proponent of free trade and free markets.
- Capital structure analysis and sustainable expansionary potential.
- Examining the business models and markets of Japanese large-caps; passion for finding hidden gems in the Japanese equity universe.
- Pure alpha and alternative investment strategies in a deflationary world.
View my resumé here: http://www.slideshare.net/DavidDeuchar/resume2016-64015533
I believe that an intelligently-diversified portfolio combined with calculated risk-taking and thorough cash flow analysis is the key to investment success. I have a strong interest in identifying unique opportunities in:
- Highly Developed International Markets
- Healthcare, Tech, and Energy
- Japanese Equities
I also strongly believe in aligning investment strategy with macroeconomic trends, geopolitics, and monetary and fiscal policy.
"You learn so much more from the bad experiences in your life than the good ones. Make sure to take the time to reflect on them. If you don't, a precious opportunity will have gone to waste. Remember that pain plus reflection equals progress."
- Ray Dalio
"I'm no genius, but I'm smart in spots and I stay around those spots."
- Tom Watson
"Ideas are bulletproof."
- V for Vendetta
I'm a well-informed retail investor and post on SA in order to expose my thought process to critical examination and comment from readers. It makes me a better investor.
I'm particularly proud of bullish macro articles posted in 2009 and later, in which I presented ideas that encouraged me to invest very profitably in a rising market. I also did articles on individual stocks, many of which contained insights not available elsewhere. Finally, I wrote a number of thoughtful articles critical of financialism and the lack of ethics on Wall Street.
I do not post for compensation, as I am concerned that editorial policy encourages and pays a premium for articles that invite the reader to speculate on the short term movements of microcaps, penny stocks, and controversial issues. The best way for me to monetize my insights is to invest accordingly.
As a retail investor, I don't give investment advice. I write about what I'm investing in, and the thought process involved in decision making and stock selection. Hopefully some of what I write is of benefit to others, by sharing my experience as I interpret it and helping them improve their investment thinking and process.