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chickensevil

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  • Advanced Micro Devices Launches A Price War On Intel [View article]
    "@Ashraf
    Your articles on AMD are bearish, but even if you argue that, in the last weeks you explicitly stated you are bearish on AMD.

    Explicitly stating you are bearish is a clear statement to sell or short."

    You can be short term bearish and long term bullish. It would amount to a hold rating on the stock. Which is about where I am with the company because I haven't seem anything to really blow me away. One day of the stock going up doesn't mean things are turning around for the positive. We saw this thing at around 4.65 earlier this year as the anticipation for the quarterly results played out.

    Honestly, If you wanted to buy, I would, and then sell off before the Quarterly announcement, buy on the rumor sell on the news, right? Seems to be the trend with this stock. (This is coming from someone who is also bullish long term on AMD). They are going in the right-ish direction for GPUs, but their CPUs still just leave a lot to be desired...
    Jan 6 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Launches A Price War On Intel [View article]
    "PS People don't buy by the specs. You, me, others yes, but most people spend their time elsewhere, they don't read specs and reviews. So if a "Gaming PC" is build around 7850 and it has BF4 as a gift costing 2/3 of the price of another with whatever cpu + discrete gpu, they might prefer it."

    Anyone who is going to actually build/get a PC and just "walks into a store" without getting a review first is probably a small number of idiots. I would argue most people check out the benchmarks and reviews before making a purchase. At least to know what they are getting for their money.
    Jan 6 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Launches A Price War On Intel [View article]
    This may be true for you and your specific tasks, but it is not true for everyone.

    Console ports? yeah... GPU limited in most cases, but then again you could run a GPU from 2008 on any console port and still max out the settings and hit a great frame rate.

    If you do any kind of online gaming, unfortunately, your CPU is going to be important... actually, your CPU, HDD, NB/SB and Network Interface are all going to be important. This isn't to say that you should skimp out on your GPU, but that your CPU/Mobo plays an important role in hitting high frames and low latency.

    The other area where it is important. Video/Music conversion, heck, encoding/decoding anything... This is the primary reason I finally upped my CPU. HDD and CPU bottlenecks become apparent when you start to mess around with any of this.

    Gamers/enthusiasts don't want good enough. It kills me to be running an Intel chip, because I really don't like them, but I do it because AMD just isn't cutting it these days...
    Jan 6 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Launches A Price War On Intel [View article]
    No the reason AMD works so much better is the fundamental difference in the way the chips are built. Basically, bringing it to the car example (because everything eventually gets compared to cars)

    NVidia has the equivalent of 10 Bugatti Veyron's in their chips. Really fast, high end calculators that can do REALLY big numbers.

    AMD has the equivalent of 1,000 Camero's in their chips. Still respectable calculators, but when combined equal out to the same 10 from NVidia. (smaller number calculators but combined can do the same tasks)

    Bitcoin mining, however, doesn't require LARGE number sets, it requires MANY number sets. That is the fundamental way that it works. So think of that poor Veyron being stuck in a 25 mph speed zone... all that power and no outlet to use it in. The Camero is also stuck in the same 25 MPH zone, but you have 1000 of them... Basically it is a volume instead of size problem.
    Jan 6 10:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Launches A Price War On Intel [View article]
    Coming at this from a gamer's perspective (because that is what I do), and putting aside the investor side of me. These chips are crap. That, is not an easy thing for me to say mind you. I want, nay, I NEED AMD to do better on CPU performance, because I am a diehard fan of them and only this past year did I finally, reluctantly, switch over to an intel 4770k from my way outdated Phenom II x6... Why? because nothing has truly hit the performance marker they set back in the day of their x6 processor.

    176 vs 300? would I pay for that? yes I would. Where I drew the line was spending 1,000 on an intel chip... just not worth it at all. So to that end, Ashraf is correct, AMD is trying desperately to market these as "gaming" chips... but no serious PC gamer is going to build a PC with inferior parts like that, unless they are diehard AMD fanbois (mind you, I still consider myself one of them... and even I won't touch their current stuff...)

    And another thing that is pissing me off with all of them, "power saving". If you can cut the TDP on the die while still improving performance, go for it... if I am running a top of the line rig, with 2 graphics cards, and the highest end CPU I can find, do I REALLY care about power consumption? nope... not really. power saving is only important in a mobile device. If I have a permanent wall outlet, burn that juice as much as it needs to.
    Jan 6 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices Vs. Intel: New Paradigm Lead Vs. Process Advantage [View article]
    They are still lagging behind. I think the going average is somewhere around 4$ in 12 months. If I recall the highest bull says 6$ and the lowest bear was at 2 something...

    Edit: according to the Sept 7th S&P Capital IQ report, 12month target is set at 3.00. They give it a fair value of 1.90 and a Sell rating

    The Sept 10 Thompson Reuters Report lists the mean target price at 4.24 with a high of 7.00 and a low of 2.00 (sorry, I was off on the high) which is pulling from 23 different analysts for target prices.

    Hope these help :)
    Sep 11 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Never Settle Bundle And Potential GPU Refresh May Boost AMD [View article]
    Hopefully it is better than Titan, otherwise we will be back into the same boat of NVidia dominating the market as soon as the release Maxwell in the Spring.

    If NVidia's claims can be trusted (which normally they over estimate the power... so not likely... but we can hope...), Maxwell is to be one of the biggest jumps in performance we have seen in a long time.

    Of course their performance jump won't be nearly as much as it would have been if you take Titan out of the equation, it will still be pretty significant, and my fear is AMD really needs to match or beat Maxwell on performance... matching or just barely beating out Titan will NOT be enough.
    Aug 9 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Never Settle Bundle And Potential GPU Refresh May Boost AMD [View article]
    Just to update, the organization that I was referring to in my original report was Lawrence Livermore (The ones currently using Sequoia the 2nd most powerful supercomputer). They have been consistently inquiring into when AMD will be releasing their next sever CPU line, and they have a few ageing AMD supercomputers (Their facility has around 25 supercomputers actively running right now, with only 3 of those being AMD based).

    This is still sitting in the rumor/wild speculation line, since their inquiries could mean anything, but it seems likely that if they are asking, they are looking to replace one of their ageing AMD systems.

    Anyway, if they do push an order to AMD, as I said, this would be a nice revenue bump, since these systems use thousands maybe even over a million processors in them (Sequoia has a little over 1.5mil IBM CPUs in it).
    Aug 9 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Never Settle Bundle And Potential GPU Refresh May Boost AMD [View article]
    Seamicro is more targeted toward data-centers. It is a different kind of performance goal. Supercomputers are targeted toward how many Petaflops of data can be computed all at once, whereas a data-center is more about quickly moving data around.

    If you will notice the Seamicro computers boast high storage capacity and big bandwidth capabilities because you are trying to manage a high volume of users accessing this server to meet their needs, say on the order of some 20k people hitting the server all at once or more.

    A supercomputer on the other hand, will only see maybe 50 "jobs" a day. It could an hour to process one task so you are not really worried about storage or bandwidth, but raw computing power.
    Aug 8 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Never Settle Bundle And Potential GPU Refresh May Boost AMD [View article]
    Nothing I can officially point to, unfortunately at this time, my source is reliable to me but would mean nothing to anyone else, although I am in the process of trying to verify that information through other chains.

    What I will point out though, which is public information and should be rather substantial:

    http://bit.ly/18dmArG
    http://bit.ly/18dmC2K
    Bluewaters (powered by AMD bulldoser chips and NVidia Tesla GPUs) is getting upgraded with 12 additional cray racks (so there is no reason to think they would be moving these to Intel Xeon processors).

    http://bit.ly/18dmArI
    Cray is also going to be installing a 30$ million dollar supercomputer for the UK National Supercomputing Facility. Now there is nothing stating which processor choice they will be using in this setup, however if history is anything to point out, they have been favoring AMD CPUs and NVidia GPUs for the buildouts (they could just as easily go Intel Xeon for these, so this is not clear).

    That is about as good as I can get for tracking anything "official" down. If I can get a more valid source on this front I will be happy to post it.
    Aug 8 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Never Settle Bundle And Potential GPU Refresh May Boost AMD [View article]
    Thanks for those two articles since both are very good news indeed.

    Especially the second, since as an enthusiast gamer myself, I am the target audience of high end graphics cards, and if you go take a look at any of the enthusiast computer forums on the internet those communities always seem to be alive and growing. So I was always confused by "PC sales declining... run for the hills" talk, since high end graphics are not even targeted toward "mainstream". This is why it is in chip makers best interest (and why they are sticking so much money into it) to do integrated graphics on the same die. AMD with their APUs, NVidia with Tegra, and Intel... with... whatever it was called.

    But as for the high end cards, I couldn't see why they would stop pushing in this direction, since everyone I know still buys the latest and greatest graphics/CPUs when they get released. So seeing that market is growing is a great joy, and should be great news to anyone invested in either AMD or NVidia.
    Aug 8 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Never Settle Bundle And Potential GPU Refresh May Boost AMD [View article]
    Yeah, everything I have heard even if they just keep on pace with fixing the company and barely make it back into the green should bump the stock up to a better level. At 3.67 (current premarket price) this stock is still a huge steal in my mind. My current break even is at 3.55 and if I had more money to throw I would.

    Some other things that I have heard around the scope. In Q1 there were 14 major hedge funds that had this stock and in Q2 that went up to 18... so the hedge funds are buying it... why aren't you?

    I have heard rumors that they might have struck a deal with a Government research facility to build a new supercomputer powered by AMD processors, this order would likely hit in the new fiscal year for the government which is September.

    Consoles take about 60 days to make, so September 4th will likely be the start of the final console push for Christmas where they up production from 1 shift to 3 (this is based on the previous console cycles with the PS3 taking about 60 days to make from start to finish).

    The new GPUs coming out as the author mentioned will be a big deal since the REAL NVidia upgrade on GPUs will not be until next spring at the earliest (their GTX 700 series is just filler for them, only the Titan and the 780 are "new" cards which are just very dumbed down server graphics, the 770 is just a rebranded 680...) So a solid bump in performance on AMD graphics cards could be HUGE for them with a nice 3-6 month head start over NVidia.

    They are working on their Micro server architecture, which we are still waiting to see how that pays off in the end for them, but is still up in the air.

    I think that pretty much covers everything else around the scope for AMD, with everything they are doing I don't think it is a question of "will the stock go up?" but rather "how much will the stock go up?"

    If everything works out perfectly for them, they get huge sales (and a nice profit margin) on the new graphics, this contract happens with the government on the supercomputer, the consoles actually hit with the low double digit profit margin they said, etc I could easily see this stock not just returning to "normal" levels around 8$ but even jumping up through the 10$ price point.
    Aug 8 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Some Serious Red Flags [View article]
    One they (NVidia) are already working on answers to this issue. AMD/Intel are taking the approach of "We know CPUs... and we kinda know GPUs... so lets combine them together to make something awesome"

    NVidia on the other hand is taking the SAME approach, from the other direction.. "We know GPUs and we kinda know CPUs... so let's combine them together to make something awesome."

    Discrete graphics will not completely go away. GPGPU is a BIG deal for NVidia. Look at what they did with the Titan Supercomputer. Graphics cards are much much better at computing floating-point numbers than a CPU is. Each is suited for their own needs and uses... For this reason you will not see this going away completely.

    Also, I hate this marketing of "you don't need discrete graphics cause look what I can do!" It is the same crap that Verizon spouts (and others) regarding 4G (which isn't even real 4G) being "just as fast" as broadband. This is such marketing BS at it's finest on both fronts... Instead of focusing on technology that will always be superior in every way, they are trying to suggest that we should stop pushing down these paths because this is the "better way". Better for whom? Yes APU and such has come a long way. But they are still lightyears behind discrete graphics. And discrete will always stay ahead unless they CHOOSE to stop funding research for it.
    Jul 19 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Some Serious Red Flags [View article]
    "It's sad to say this but if somebody want the best graphics buy a console, the PC won't compete with these machines for one or two years from now."

    Why is it then that the unreal engine demo when performed in 2012 on a GTX 680 looked BETTER than the unreal engine demo performed in 2013 on the PS4 (about 1 year later)?
    http://bit.ly/15trnnn

    While I do take the side that the console wins will be good for the PC market, I do not think it is centered around the "graphics" support and optimizing for AMD vs NVidia. I think where we will see a benefit will be from everything being coded for x86 instead of IBM PowerPC. Also, given that all three consoles are running APUs in them, I think this will help AMD out more when competing with Intel on the computing side than it will going against NVidia.

    So, you are right and you are wrong at the same time. The consoles will be important, but the best graphics will hardly be coming from them. They might look "close" at launch, but as time goes by and games like Battlefield continue to be designed for PC first and then "dumbed down" to console level, it will continue to show the higher power of the PC upgrades. These consoles (based on the tech demo) are barely pushing at the low end NVidia GTX 600 series levels, if that...
    Jul 19 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's New Server Chip: Buy The Stock, But Not The Hype [View article]
    I did read somewhere that we are approaching real limitations on how much farther we can shrink the chips. I wish I could quote the source, but I don't have it on hand at the moment. But it was a comment made by the same guy who predicted in the early 00's that we would have to switch from single cores to something else, because we were hitting serious physical (as in physics) constraints on clock speed.

    The basis of the older claim (which is still true) is the faster you push your clocks the more bleed you have on energy (energy being wasted - ie heat) because it is going so fast that some of the energy escapes the core.

    The newer claim is inside the realm of a different physics issue which is that as you make things smaller, atoms have a tendancy to "bleed" through "walls". Think of it like osmosis. Only instead of there being purposeful gaps in the walls you just don't have enough of a wall to keep it contained. It falls under the realm of quantum physics so trying to explain it with traditional concepts is very difficult but it is basically a phenomenon that would technically be on the scope of walking through walls.

    Anyway, The guy (should prolly go find the source, huh?) said that we will be hitting this limit "soon" likely around the 9nm maybe a bit larger size. Which is likely why things get very "grey" for intel beyond 14nm. I wouldn't be surprised if they do not deliver on 14nm within the time frame they are projecting, because of both cost and technical benefit since they would be on the beginning of combating that bleed through.
    Jun 18 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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