User 122928

1 Comment

ON: Thu Nov 15th 05:31 AM
Commented on:
Forget About Memory Stocks For Now

Who cares about 512Mbit chips? The average Flash card, MP3 player (or IPhone) uses somewhere around 2GB of Flash (2GBytes=16Gbits). To use more than one chip in a product when a one chip solution is available usually cost more (extra packaging, higher failure rate, etc.). I believe 64MB cards were discontinued years ago. This information on 512Mbit chips is not too meaningful.
What data do you have on the DRAM to Flash conversion? Or is it just a rummor? Vista is still rolling out and although it has lagged considereably more than expected in that rollout, I believe that DRAM manufactures are still expected an uptick in demand. They don't want to convert their fabs only to have to convert back.
The point is - how will the average selling price of 1-64Gbit Flash be affected by the extra capacity coming on line in the next few months? If demand is not increasing, why did Samsung increase CAP Ex for this year by $1B. A 15% drop in ASPs is normal, sustainable and profitable for memory companies based on technology improvements for cost production and the increase in sales that it stimulates.
So far, I have not seen the big drop in ASPs for memory or cards this quarter. There was a small drop in the beginning of the quarter.
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