Alex_G

39 Comments

    • Monetary Madness: Global Margin Call Underway [view article]
      In a prolonged period of asset deflation, the only thing that can cause inflation is spiraling wages. Show me where this is going to happen. I see a lot of posts here calling for inflation, but no real thesis to back up the claims, besides the usual fiat currency, blah blah blah arguements.

      The Great Depression caused deflation, not inflation.       Oct 06 06:34 PM
    • Four Energy Bargains [view article]
      Wheat farmers are now selling at below cost. The everybody has to eat theme is pretty much over. Go back to '05-'06 fert pricing and tell us if POT is a bargain. The funds that fueled its rally are under liquidation. Long term support is in the 35-40 range. Oct 06 06:08 PM
    • The Professor Of Commodities: Interview with James Doran (Part II) [view article]
      complete waste of bandwith, time, etc. Oct 02 06:09 PM
    • Oil Inventories [view article]
      Danny,

      As currencies are relational, do the work and find out how the US's "pitfalls" stack up against the Eurozone and the UK, then get back to us. Just another uninformed poster.       Sep 11 12:41 AM
    • Still an Oil Bull, Lame or Not [view article]
      X15,

      This drop in gasoline IS demand destruction. Miles driven has fallen as much as gas usage. There has been no time for American drivers to switch to smaller and more efficient cars. Europeans already have those cars on the road, and their gas usage is down substantially as well.       Sep 09 02:23 AM
    • Still an Oil Bull, Lame or Not [view article]
      I have read dozens of articles about the price of oil, and they mention peak oil, demand destruction, geopolitical forces, etc, but no one mentions the obvious:

      At what price does oil become economically unviable??

      If fuel goes from 30% of airline costs to 60%, will people fly as much? The cancellation of 8% of current flights says no.

      80 to 100 $ oil started the demand destruction that caused the 1 billion people that use the most oil to use 10% less oil for transportation, thus proving that a large percentage of oil will not be bought at any price.

      Doubling of gasoline prices would make the extra cost of a CNG duel fuel car pay for itself in less than a year for most people.

      This leads me to believe that $250 in current dollars won't happen.



       Sep 08 11:25 PM
    • Fannie/Freddie Bailout 'Disastrous Fiasco' [view article]
      The Hand:

      I bought my first house in 1989 w/ 10% down, paid mortgage insurance, payment was 30% of take home, and gross income was 40% of loan amount. Fairly common, and if I went FHA, it would have been 3% down. My dad bought our families first house with even less than those ratios in 1969. Neither my dad or I had any other payments to speak of.

      This current problem was not caused by down payment issues, but that the other ratios got out of wack and basically allowed people to speculate on houses, whether they meant to live in them or not.

      Sound underwriting means determining whether someone can continue to pay for their obligation, not whether an investor will buy the loan. That is where all of this went wrong.       Sep 08 09:56 PM
    • U.S. Debt - It's Not Going Away [view article]
      Muddling, you've stumbled upon the "we suck less" theory. The Euro Zone has wrung all of the efficiencies out of the creation of a common currency and loose borders that can be acheived, so the 10 year economic upcycle is over. They also have less options to stimulate and their social net commitments will increase their financial strain. Sep 08 08:44 PM
    • Fannie/Freddie Bailout 'Disastrous Fiasco' [view article]
      Grace, you're smarter than this rant. The rich can pay an extra 100bps on their mortgages, the middle class have a more difficult time doing so. Fannie Golds were up 2 pts today and mortgage rates dropped 20 bps out of the gate. We should see an additional 80 or so over the next couple of months if all goes well. FNM and FRE should also be able to start accepting 10% down instead of 20%. This is the first step to stopping the freefall in housing.

      As far as your quote from Jim Rogers goes, the guy has become a bit of a wacko lately, telling people he is all in china at the top of the market (down over 60% since this statement) and drivel such as you quoted.

      This market has dictated that choices are being made for the lesser of 2 evils. The loss of tax revs in a protracted recession/consumer depression would be trillions, not billions. We will see more of this as more problems develop and the pros and cons are weighed.       Sep 08 08:04 PM
    • Five Forces Driving the Euro Down [view article]
      The A-holes are A-holes. One can disagree without telling the author that she is full of crap. Anything wrong with providing a polite, well thought out rebuttal? Aug 15 07:34 PM
    • Five Forces Driving the Euro Down [view article]
      JLM,

      Look at PPP Euro vs USD, net debt vs GDP, then tell us that USD is overvalued vs Euro. Net debt also includes future social service obligations, recognized or not. The Eurozone is in a world of hurt rev vs future obligations compared to the US, and they have a declining pop base. Tech analysis only works for trends, not fund. Emotions don't count in these equations.       Aug 14 10:15 PM
    • Five Forces Driving the Euro Down [view article]
      Peter,

      Way to add to the conversation. The point she is making is that we may suck, but we suck less than the eurozone. Look at the oil usage numbers, the demand destruction going on, and the global economic outlook, then decide were the price of oil is heading.

      When you post attacks like this, you just look like a horses ass.       Aug 14 08:52 PM
    • $200 Oil: Before Decade's End, Not Year's [view article]
      This article would be correct if all of the assumptions hold true. As with many other oil bulls, the author assumes many things, such as:

      1)China will grow at the rate it has grown the last 5 years. This will not happen. They will contract to some degree, maybe even recess. The 60% drop in their stock market is telling us something.
      2)China has an insatiable appetite for oil at any price. China is very inefficient in converting energy use into GDP, the USA being 4x and Japan being 9x as efficient. Right now, their government is subsidizing energy costs, to what degree is anyones guess. The net effect of this is transferring a portion of their foreign reserves to energy exporters.

      High energy prices will affect China far more than the US or Europe. Manufacturing based economies are more energy intensive. As long as oil and coal prices stay at sustained levels, I believe this stock market will face continued downward pressure.
      3) $4 gas is the magical number where US demand destruction begins. We actually had more demand destruction in the 1st quarter, when gas was far cheaper than that.

      The bulk of the 2nd quarter run up in oil prices was not due to demand exceeding supply, but speculators running up prices. Oil shills like Goldman and Morgan saw to that. In the current economic conditions, oil over $100 is not economically viable. Economic conditions would have to change drastically over the next 2 years for oil to reach $200.       Aug 11 07:53 PM
    • Who Will Crack the CIGS Nut in Thin Film? [view article]
      Bobby,

      Panels that harvest energy with CIGS (copper indium gallium selenide) cost far less to make and install, say backers. The material can be sprayed onto foil, plastic or glass or incorporated into cement and other building materials. Conceivably, the entire exterior of a house or building could become a solar generator.       Jul 09 08:38 PM
    • Buy Opportunities Like These Do Not Come Along Very Often [view article]
      Tjohn, Boney,

      The market last week finally woke up to the issue of builder loans outside of vegas, FL, AZ and central CA. yes, i still have small legacy positions in a few of these stocks, but for the most part got out when they were 150% of historical metrics.

      Here's my problem with buying CTBK now: 75% land and construction loan exposure scares the living shit out of me. I would rather buy it at $15, knowing the worst is behind them, than buy them under $10 while they are still falling, not knowing what is coming up in builder loan losses.

      And the problem with builder loans is the same everywhere in the country: Builder borrows to buy land or lots w/ 35% down, LTV of 65%. At 35% ormore lot value drop, builder is at 0 or negative equity. Banks now will not loan the rest to finish project, so builder has to carry out of cashflow or sell. Builder needs to build to have cashflow. Other builders can't get financing to buy the land. You get the picture. This is what has been happening so far in 2008 in the first parts of the country to have the real estate bubble burst. We are late here, but it is coming, at least to some degree, to what at this point we don't know.

      So, when would i buy? I will re-enter these stocks when they reach option price or i feel that builders can get loans again to finish the projects they started.

      The 3 i will look at the hardest are FTBK, CACB and CTBK.

       Jun 22 12:04 AM
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