Alex_G

An Unpleasant Comparison: Demographics and Deflation

Actually, there are millions of educated, skilled workers just dying to emigrate to the USA, but government puts limits on the number that can come.

Imagine an entire new generation (ok, part of one) that cost nothing to raise or educate, ready from day one to contribute to the economy (and pay taxes).


On Jul 09 05:56 PM GeminiAtlas wrote:

> Adding more uneducated, unskilled, poor people won't help the economy.
> In the 19th century the skills matched the jobs (repetitive, no need
> to read, etc.), so it helped the economy. Just adding more unskilled
> folks to the melting pot will make things worse. More skilled people
> are needed for this economy in certain sectors.
>

An Unpleasant Comparison: Demographics and Deflation

Great article, but I am curious as to why you would be buying commodities, as the premise of the article points to deflation. Unless the emerging markets develop internal demand for goods and services, there will be less pricing power for commodity producers. The emerging market export model can't be changed on a dime. It will take years.

Europe's numbers will look just as bad as ours, with worse demographics. Capacity utilization is at all-time lows, developed world credit will continue to contract, pointing to very slow growth for an extended period of time.

Owning debt, not assets, seems to be the investment choice for the foreseeable future.

Alex