anvor

The Russian Bear Awakens: A Global Macro View

Although the article have some obvious mistakes and seems rather dated (Medvedev was elected almost a month ago), its argument is not as bad as the comments above would lead you to believe.

As anti-corruption researcher and consultant I agree that corruption in Russia is as omni-present as in Brazil, India and China, but that is the risk you have to mitigate and there are numerous free and effective ways to do so.

Compared to the USA Russia has many strategic advantages and the continuation of the Putin's line combined with the clean balance sheet and high commodity prices will inevitably lead to it to further economic and political prominence.

Although indeed outside of natural resource-based industries it is the service sector, consumer finance and housing that lead the way in Russian economic development, given that they start so low and have an immense internal demand to satisfy, the growth of those sectors is sure to sustain Russia for decades to come. In the end Russia has all the signs of moving towards the path of countries like Canada, where vast natural resources sustain the rest of the sectors and thus ensure decent economic life of its small, comparing to its territorial span, population. But, as Russian and Canadian citizen permanently living in the US, I think it’s a good thing prospects:-).

Besides, Russia's positive national balance sheet and ever-growing foreign currency reserves allow them to make mistakes along the way and not to fall into the ditch the way the US is ready to do.

Finally, these days Russia is much less Communist that America in virtually every way. Actually, while I was a research professor at one American university, I felt as if I was back in the Soviet Union again: so thick was the bureaucratic thinking, so little entrepreneurship was there. Alas, the state legislators think in exactly the same terms as our university bureaucrats and, to my dismay, I found that most states legislators across America are acting in the same mode, wasting your and my money on the things that have little pay-off or will not pay in the short-to-medium term. But in the long term we are all dead, eh? :-( Tell me if I am wrong. [e-mail]