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  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Unfortunately, one has to be ready for significant gut-wrenching drawdowns while trading XIV/SVXY/VXX/UVXY regardless of the method used. For instance, the trading system employing VIX/VXV ratio had a drawdown of -50% over the past 12 months. Despite this, trailing 12 month return is a respectable +30%! There will be periods of huge drawdowns but if one executes trading system mechanically (provided the system is sound) , probability of success will be high. I do not second guess or let my "intuition" guide my decisions.

    For the "conservative" volatility trader (I know, an oxymoron), ZIV/VXZ pair may be the preferred alternative- maximum drawdown and return are -27% and 14% for trailing 12 months.
    May 25, 2015. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    Can you clarify what you mean by "will almost never happen"?
    May 24, 2015. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility Is Getting Me Down, Like UVXY [View article]
    I keep it simple and use just one metric to figure out what to do- the VIX/VXV ratio. Short volatility if < 1 and go long when > 1. 100% mechanical.
    May 24, 2015. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When It Comes To Dividends, Looking Back May Cost You [View article]
    While the idea of using forward-looking parameters to determine future dividend growth is promising, your ETF is only a year long. More data is needed before declaring the methodology a success.
    Aug 25, 2014. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Share Class Ratio As A Buy Point Indicator [View article]
    It has been 6 months since you boldly published a buy signal for BRK. Since then, BRK-B has handily beat SPY (19.03% vs. 11.35%). I haven't included SPY's dividend but I doubt it would change the number much. Well done!
    Aug 4, 2014. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations: Are Stocks Overpriced? [View article]

    I was pleasantly surprised to see that you have started responding to messages. I enjoy reading your posts and watching the youtube videos. As a quant at heart, I love your approach to investing. Thanks and keep the posts coming!
    Jul 15, 2014. 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If I Was A Stock Picker, Here's What I'd Do [View article]
    Folio Investing ( is another option to consider. You can essentially make as many trades as you like for a flat annual fee ($299). If you buy or sell 40 stocks within a year at a discount online broker, you will spend about 320 dollars (~$7.99/trade), an amount in excess of what you would pay at Folio in a year. Definitely worth considering if you make frequent trades and portfolio size is at least 30K (I don't like when transaction cost is more than 1%/year).
    May 1, 2014. 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Positive Psychology Of Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    Interesting read!

    Agree that DGI can have a powerful and positive influence over individual investors. By focusing on dividend growth as opposed to market fluctuations during bear markets, an investor would be better inoculated against the urge to panic sell at a huge loss. At present a large portion of my portfolio is invested in speculative/growth/small cap/momentum ETFs/stocks. I plan to use DGI (using stocks that have consistently raised dividends and/or ETFs containing such stocks) as my bond-replacement strategy. The profits earned from my growth portfolio will fund my DGI portfolio. The best of two worlds!
    Mar 20, 2014. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Judge Berkshire Hathaway By Its Book Value Cover [View article]
    "greedy old man"

    Not a description I would use to describe an individual who has pledged to donate his entire wealth to charity.
    Mar 12, 2014. 03:48 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs That Can Outperform The S&P 500 [View article]
    I have small positions in 4 ETFs (I call them "Super ETFs"): GURU, FPX, CSD and PKW. With the exception of GURU, these ETFs have outperformed SPY over the last 7 years, a period which includes the Great Recession. GURU is new but has beaten SPY since its inception.
    Mar 10, 2014. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How You Can Invest Like Warren Buffett [View article]
    Great read! I liked your approach in explaining Warren Buffet's letter in the context of dividend growth investment which may also apply to other modalities of investing. Buying great companies at low valuation is financially rewarding if one's investment horizon is reasonably long.
    Mar 10, 2014. 08:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 March Madness Trading Contest [View instapost]
    much obliged!
    Feb 28, 2014. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 March Madness Trading Contest [View instapost]
    XIV, if ETN is allowed; otherwise SVXY
    Feb 28, 2014. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which VIX Spike Could Kill XIV? Here Are The Numbers. [View article]
    you are right. this is not meant for US subjects.

    User 23254153's link took me to a webpage with the following message.
    "The following information at the internet websites of Commerzbank AG is intended exclusively and reserved for interested parties who are residents of the Federal Republic of Germany or Austria. Only Internet users resident in Germany or Austria are permitted to access the following web-pages."
    Feb 26, 2014. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which VIX Spike Could Kill XIV? Here Are The Numbers. [View article]
    possible. personally, i have found combo stock/option trades better track double leveraged instruments with less effort. one would probably need to adjust positions more frequently if trading only options. outside of my buy/sell indicator, i only rebalance between the two positions (ie, stock and option) every 20 trading days where i would also roll my option 1 month forward.
    Feb 24, 2014. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment