swaps

The Coming Crash of 2008: A Result of Overleveraging

IOver leveraging through derivatives. Warren Buffeet said this in 2002:)


I view derivatives as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system.
Basically these instruments call for money to change hands at some future date, with the amount to be
determined by one or more reference items, such as interest rates, stock prices, or currency values. For
example, if you are either long or short an S&P 500 futures contract, you are a party to a very simple
derivatives transaction, with your gain or loss derived from movements in the index. Derivatives contracts
are of varying duration, running sometimes to 20 or more years, and their value is often tied to several
variables.

Unless derivatives contracts are collateralized or guaranteed, their ultimate value also depends on the
creditworthiness of the counter-parties to them. But before a contract is settled, the counter-parties record
profits and losses – often huge in amount – in their current earnings statements without so much as a
penny changing hands. Reported earnings on derivatives are often wildly overstated. That’s because
today’s earnings are in a significant way based on estimates whose inaccuracy may not be exposed for
many years.

The errors usually reflect the human tendency to take an optimistic view of one’s commitments. But the
parties to derivatives also have enormous incentives to cheat in accounting for them.