skeptic1

3 Comments

    • ON: Sun Nov 18th 15:21 PM
      Commented on:
      Cisco Sell-off Puts Apple at a Discount
      Very entertaining post. Sounds like a stockbroker trying to reassure his clients. Next time you might want to conisder doing some analysis. Rimm, goog, aapl, and bidu got hammered for three days. Thos four stocks have been going up every single day since just about august 17. Rimm was up over 100%, bidu was in the same neighborhood, goog and aapl were in the more modest 30-50% range. Point is that apprecciation was a complete overshoot.

      At 190$ a share you are basically paying upfront for 3 straight years of 50% eps growth. As an investor, you never want to pay full value for anything...but more importantly you definentely don't want to pay for something that well...let's just say is not a sure thing. Now at 155 apple is more attractive, but still not trading at a long term discount that offers any disciplined investor a margin of safety to his fair value. I'd say apple shares are worth something closer to 155$ based on the next 3-5 years of growth i think the company can sustain. That means it is trading at a premium to my valuation right now. If apple can show me more data points indicating that their growth rate is actually still acclerating...i might re consider and say the stock is worth 200$...but either way that means its still pricey as all hell as that value is based on 5 years of expectations that are pretty high. I'd rather recommend stocks that can grow into a valuation over the next few years. Bcsi, maybe hans, i see opportunities in dell....and of course god knows there are probably some steals in financials...so just becasue apple dropped 25% doesn't mean you need to push the retail idiots back into it. They have enough problems already...they don't need to be force fed overpriced stocks just because the companies are popular.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Nov 18th 15:19 PM
      Commented on:
      Cisco Sell-off Puts Apple at a Discount
      Very entertaining post. Sounds like a stockbroker trying to reassure his clients. Next time you might want to conisder doing some analysis. Rimm, goog, aapl, and bidu got hammered for three days. Thos four stocks have been going up every single day since just about august 17. Rimm was up over 100%, bidu was in the same neighborhood, goog and aapl were in the more modest 30-50% range. Point is that apprecciation was a complete overshoot.

      At 190$ a share you are basically paying upfront for 3 straight years of 50% eps growth. As an investor, you never want to pay full value for anything...but more importantly you definentely don't want to pay for something that well...let's just say is not a sure thing. Now at 155 apple is more attractive, but still not trading at a long term discount that offers any disciplined investor a margin of safety to his fair value. I'd say apple shares are worth something closer to 155$ based on the next 3-5 years of growth i think the company can sustain. That means it is trading at a premium to my valuation right now. If apple can show me more data points indicating that their growth rate is actually still acclerating...i might re consider and say the stock is worth 200$...but either way that means its still pricey as all hell as that value is based on 5 years of expectations that are pretty high. I'd rather recommend stocks that can grow into a valuation over the next few years. Bcsi, maybe hans, i see opportunities in dell....and of course god knows there are probably some steals in financials...so just becasue apple dropped 25% doesn't mean you need to push the retail idiots back into it. They have enough problems already...they don't need to be force fed overpriced stocks just because the companies are popular.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Nov 18th 15:19 PM
      Commented on:
      Cisco Sell-off Puts Apple at a Discount
      Very entertaining post. Sounds like a stockbroker trying to reassure his clients. Next time you might want to conisder doing some analysis. Rimm, goog, aapl, and bidu got hammered for three days. Thos four stocks have been going up every single day since just about august 17. Rimm was up over 100%, bidu was in the same neighborhood, goog and aapl were in the more modest 30-50% range. Point is that apprecciation was a complete overshoot.

      At 190$ a share you are basically paying upfront for 3 straight years of 50% eps growth. As an investor, you never want to pay full value for anything...but more importantly you definentely don't want to pay for something that well...let's just say is not a sure thing. Now at 155 apple is more attractive, but still not trading at a long term discount that offers any disciplined investor a margin of safety to his fair value. I'd say apple shares are worth something closer to 155$ based on the next 3-5 years of growth i think the company can sustain. That means it is trading at a premium to my valuation right now. If apple can show me more data points indicating that their growth rate is actually still acclerating...i might re consider and say the stock is worth 200$...but either way that means its still pricey as all hell as that value is based on 5 years of expectations that are pretty high. I'd rather recommend stocks that can grow into a valuation over the next few years. Bcsi, maybe hans, i see opportunities in dell....and of course god knows there are probably some steals in financials...so just becasue apple dropped 25% doesn't mean you need to push the retail idiots back into it. They have enough problems already...they don't need to be force fed overpriced stocks just because the companies are popular.
      View article »
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