Akram's Razor's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/123608/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-19993912 19993912 Fri, 14 Jun 2013 15:30:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-19891812 19891812 Wed, 12 Jun 2013 12:39:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-19890542 19890542 Wed, 12 Jun 2013 12:13:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-19887442 19887442 Wed, 12 Jun 2013 11:15:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1409041/comments?source=feed#comment-19255451 19255451 I've thought cvlt was expensive since $40, but the point is I have been waiting for mgmt to shift their tone. This cc was important within the context of the last 8 cc's and not on a stand alone basis. If you knew that, you'd understand why I am being so dismissive of your 'mgmt could low ball...don't want to be sued ' etc. Then there are simple things to factor in like their need to ramp up direct sales investment to replace dell, the fact that on a long-term basis their difference between effective tax rate and actual taxes paid is signficant enough to be a major headwind on the bottom line, and that rev growth can best be described as solid and not gangbusters for a company of this size. I assure you without a shadow of a doubt that this year is an investment year which at best is a major drag for a momentum stock like this after the op levg driven results they had last yr, and which at worse can result in a total collapse if any weakness no matter how temporary emerges on the demand side.
But this quote is a gem "In the end you cannot know for sure, and to a large extent you are taking credit for partially random events"

I can assure you that I knew for sure that when Lehman was at 35$ that it faced bk risk, and that the stock was a short. At 18$ i was much less confident as I felt there was a very good chance they could raise signficant capital or sell the whole company. The x factor there was a delusional dick fuld getting in the way of everything that could have saved lehman. My point is investing is about degrees of confidence and the structure of your thesis and not whether or not you were right or wrong. A rational thesis can produce a horrific short term outcome and a fantastic long term return, while a flimsy thesis can produce the type of short term results that make the long-term investor look silly. Of course over a few years that flimsy thesis will be exposed and the skeptics will be proven right. So please i don't need lessons about how the market is unpredicatible, irrational, and for the most part at times no better than a casino. These assumptions are at the core of how i run money, but i am not going to tell my investors i am long cvlt because 'it demand could pick up and that's a wild card' or because i think a mgmt team that has been uber bullish for 8 quarters was simply low balling the street with their more conservative nature this quarter. And i wont even bother repeating the points on investment, oem relationship loss/cmpt, and the tax rate.]]> Sun, 26 May 2013 06:03:22 -0400 I've thought cvlt was expensive since $40, but the point is I have been waiting for mgmt to shift their tone. This cc was important within the context of the last 8 cc's and not on a stand alone basis. If you knew that, you'd understand why I am being so dismissive of your 'mgmt could low ball...don't want to be sued ' etc. Then there are simple things to factor in like their need to ramp up direct sales investment to replace dell, the fact that on a long-term basis their difference between effective tax rate and actual taxes paid is signficant enough to be a major headwind on the bottom line, and that rev growth can best be described as solid and not gangbusters for a company of this size. I assure you without a shadow of a doubt that this year is an investment year which at best is a major drag for a momentum stock like this after the op levg driven results they had last yr, and which at worse can result in a total collapse if any weakness no matter how temporary emerges on the demand side.
But this quote is a gem "In the end you cannot know for sure, and to a large extent you are taking credit for partially random events"

I can assure you that I knew for sure that when Lehman was at 35$ that it faced bk risk, and that the stock was a short. At 18$ i was much less confident as I felt there was a very good chance they could raise signficant capital or sell the whole company. The x factor there was a delusional dick fuld getting in the way of everything that could have saved lehman. My point is investing is about degrees of confidence and the structure of your thesis and not whether or not you were right or wrong. A rational thesis can produce a horrific short term outcome and a fantastic long term return, while a flimsy thesis can produce the type of short term results that make the long-term investor look silly. Of course over a few years that flimsy thesis will be exposed and the skeptics will be proven right. So please i don't need lessons about how the market is unpredicatible, irrational, and for the most part at times no better than a casino. These assumptions are at the core of how i run money, but i am not going to tell my investors i am long cvlt because 'it demand could pick up and that's a wild card' or because i think a mgmt team that has been uber bullish for 8 quarters was simply low balling the street with their more conservative nature this quarter. And i wont even bother repeating the points on investment, oem relationship loss/cmpt, and the tax rate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1428631/comments?source=feed#comment-18966901 18966901 Fri, 17 May 2013 18:56:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1031451?source=feed#comment-18937831 18937831
They downgrade the whole sector last may, and they are now upgrading them after the avg global financial stock probably doubled.]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 08:56:14 -0400
They downgrade the whole sector last may, and they are now upgrading them after the avg global financial stock probably doubled.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1409041/comments?source=feed#comment-18908931 18908931 Thu, 16 May 2013 14:29:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1428171/comments?source=feed#comment-18823922 18823922 Tue, 14 May 2013 16:42:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1409041/comments?source=feed#comment-18559401 18559401 Tue, 07 May 2013 20:28:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1409041/comments?source=feed#comment-18556201 18556201 Tue, 07 May 2013 18:19:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1182981/comments?source=feed#comment-18555721 18555721 Tue, 07 May 2013 18:02:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1182981/comments?source=feed#comment-18555231 18555231 Tue, 07 May 2013 17:49:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1384031/comments?source=feed#comment-18270101 18270101 Tue, 30 Apr 2013 10:58:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1384031/comments?source=feed#comment-18269461 18269461 Tue, 30 Apr 2013 10:43:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-18018831 18018831 Wed, 24 Apr 2013 03:56:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-17824051 17824051 Fri, 19 Apr 2013 05:47:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1322641/comments?source=feed#comment-17812971 17812971
I recommended buying acme packet two days before it was taken out...deckers before it rallied 80% and did like four pieces on that...ulta at a peak...whole foods at a peak....shorting the yen at 77...steering clear of gold....shorting mlnx at a peak....crus at a peak....dumping apple..shorting cmg at its peak....buying google....shorting lnkd at 120... before it fell to 90....and then not shorting it at 120 again and actually buying calls at 145.....and of course buying puts on lulue when it was 70 in the front months and two days before it warned and fell to 58......oh and a whole bunch of shiat you have no clue about because well ....you have no clue...but i will admit i am still quite preplexed by sina and pnra. Lulu has bounced on what id say is more front monthoption/short interest dynamic than anything else.....but frankly speaking i could give a damn if i was 60% with the event driven option trading i do.....my goal is return...nothing else.....i don't dwell on price action....i learn from mistakes....i accept luck when it comes....and i always move on]]> Thu, 18 Apr 2013 20:02:06 -0400
I recommended buying acme packet two days before it was taken out...deckers before it rallied 80% and did like four pieces on that...ulta at a peak...whole foods at a peak....shorting the yen at 77...steering clear of gold....shorting mlnx at a peak....crus at a peak....dumping apple..shorting cmg at its peak....buying google....shorting lnkd at 120... before it fell to 90....and then not shorting it at 120 again and actually buying calls at 145.....and of course buying puts on lulue when it was 70 in the front months and two days before it warned and fell to 58......oh and a whole bunch of shiat you have no clue about because well ....you have no clue...but i will admit i am still quite preplexed by sina and pnra. Lulu has bounced on what id say is more front monthoption/short interest dynamic than anything else.....but frankly speaking i could give a damn if i was 60% with the event driven option trading i do.....my goal is return...nothing else.....i don't dwell on price action....i learn from mistakes....i accept luck when it comes....and i always move on]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1345091/comments?source=feed#comment-17725221 17725221 Wed, 17 Apr 2013 06:34:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1322641/comments?source=feed#comment-17305191 17305191 Sat, 06 Apr 2013 14:10:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1322641/comments?source=feed#comment-17275491 17275491 Fri, 05 Apr 2013 13:58:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1322641/comments?source=feed#comment-17273141 17273141 Fri, 05 Apr 2013 13:06:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1322641/comments?source=feed#comment-17258701 17258701 Fri, 05 Apr 2013 08:51:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1302971/comments?source=feed#comment-16870091 16870091 Wed, 27 Mar 2013 08:40:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-16849851 16849851 Tue, 26 Mar 2013 18:28:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-16691501 16691501 Sat, 23 Mar 2013 07:06:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-16585361 16585361 Thu, 21 Mar 2013 00:16:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-16577891 16577891 Wed, 20 Mar 2013 19:21:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-16475611 16475611 Mon, 18 Mar 2013 23:27:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1281271/comments?source=feed#comment-16474341 16474341 Mon, 18 Mar 2013 23:01:33 -0400