justthefacts

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    • Mon Nov 19th 19:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?
      Interesting that you would post that summary of the Berkeley study - The Berkeley conclusion was that due to material (Te) limitations and competition that CdTe panels would stay a small player by 2010.

      - Berkeley qoute "Current production targets for CdTe still represent a small portion of the total solar production by 2010. If CdTe took over even a small portion of the market, we would then likely see resource constraints and the kind of material cost increases discussed previously. Therefore, the market will most likely be set by a mix of other technologies." pg31.

      While not as alarmist as the OP here, the Berkeley conclusion is similar- that Te will limit CdTe panel growth - and at this point, with a PE close to 200, FSLR is pricing in massive long term growth that may not happen.

      It is also an interesting idea to consider that for only $4M a competitor or say Chinese solar player could easily grab 200 tons of Te a year and provide just the type of price shock that that is imagined here.

      Any alternate sources would be far too late to prevent the effects of a demand spike.

      The current price for Platinum is over $23,000/lb it is not too hard to imagine Te at $2,000/lb or even higher than 20X in a short time period.
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